Kerry gets four point bounce in Rassmussen Tracking Poll

Rassmussen Presidential Tracking Poll ^ | August 1, 2004 | Rassmussen

[Dave S]

Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry

Updated Daily by Noon Eastern Election 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush 45% Kerry 49% Other 3% Not Sure 4% RasmussenReports.com

Sunday August 01, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John Kerry with 49% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 45%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

These results reflect a 4-point "bounce" for Kerry from the Democratic national convention. Last Monday morning, just before the convention began, Kerry and Bush were tied at 46% each.

This is also just the second day in nearly 150 days of polling that either candidate has moved above 48% in the daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The only other time this happened was shortly after Kerry announced North Carolina Senator John Edwards as his running mate. Other than that, both Bush and Kerry have remained within 3 percentage points of 45% on every single day of polling.

Two-thirds of the interviews for today's survey were conducted following Kerry's acceptance speech on Thursday night. Tomorrow's Tracking Poll update will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted following the speech.

Beginning Tuesday, and continuing throughout next week, we will release a new wave of Rasmussen Reports state election polls to update our Electoral College projections. Currently, we show Kerry with a modest lead, 227-208. There are 103 Electoral Votes in the Toss-Up category.

Our latest update shows that voters remain evenly divided between Kerry and Bush when it comes to the economy. Bush retains a very modest advantage on the issues of national defense and the War on Terror. Results on both issues are essentially unchanged over the past week and will be updated again next week.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters say it is more important to insure that Iraq becomes a peaceful nation enjoying freedom and democracy than to bring home our troops as soon as possible. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that 39% take the opposite view and believe that bringing home the troops is a higher priority.

[Betaille]

This is totally inconsistent with the poll they showed yesterday, which showed a downward trend. i can assure you nothing happened on saturday that would give Kerry a bounce. Also, CNN/Gallup just reported that Bush has taken the lead 50-47 with likely voters.
As for the Newsweek poll. It has been exposed as a farce. They used 38% democrats, 28% republicans.

[Nachum]

I'm really interested in the Zogby poll. His seems the most accurate.

[Bonaventure]

To get that kind of movement in a three-day tracking poll, Kerry must have had one fantastic day after his speech.

[gilliam]

He needed at least 5 points.

[mlbford2]

Well, if you go by Zogby, its a "Kerry Blowout", "South turns Liberal" and "Bush should start packing bags today".

[jpf]

It's not a "bounce", it's a post convention hop!

[deport]

I'm really interested in the Zogby poll. His seems the most accurate.

---

Zog gets better about Midnight on election eve.... until then he's out there doing pushing the democrat agenda and his numbers aren't much better than any of the others, imo.

[LibLieSlayer]

"Seems" is all it is. Zogby was off bigtime in the 2002 mid term, and was off by up to 18% in the dim primaries.

LLS

[Mr. K]

and not much of a hop at that

[Nataku X]

It's still only a +1% bounce from before the Dem convention. Big deal.

[gilliam]

To get that kind of movement in a three-day tracking poll, Kerry must have had one fantastic day after his speech.

What movement?

Updated Daily by Noon Eastern

Election 2004
Date	Bush	Kerry
Today	45	49
July 31	46	47
July 30	45	48
July 29	45	48
July 28	45	48
July 27	46	47
July 26	46	46
July 25	46	47
July 24	45	47
July 23	45	48
July 22	45	48
July 21	47	46
July 20	47	45
July 19	47	45
July 18	46	46
July 17	46	47
July 16	46	48
Earlier Results for RR Premium Members
Dates are release dates  Surveys conducted on preceding three nights
RasmussenReports.com

 

[Nataku X]

Newsweek/MSNBC Fraud: The real internals behind the Newsweek poll and how they put 9% more Democrats in the sampling--Kerry actually got a -2% bounce in the Newsweek poll

[COEXERJ145]

Actually all it means is Kerry had a good day on Saturday which isn't a surprise. Saturday usually is a good days for Democrats.

[Nataku X]

Yeah. He's a grand total of 1% over before the convention instead of -2%. Fantastic movement!

[PattonReincarnated]

It's not a "bounce", it's a post convention hop!

more like a baby set.

[Betaille]

"It's still only a +1% bounce from before the Dem convention. Big deal."
I'm not being a cry-baby. My point is just that their post-convention poll yesterday showed no bounce, and supposedly on saturday there was this big convention bounce? it doesnt make any sense. I think Rasmussen is just copycating the Newsweek poll(which was 38% dems, 28% reps), and showing what they think the data SHOULD be showing, rather than what it actually is.

[PattonReincarnated]

more like a baby set.

baby set? what's that? It's a baby step. You need to learn to type. No, I know how type, I just need some coffee. Well, why don't you get some coffee? I will, thank you.

[jpf]

"baby steps to the convention, baby steps to the podium, baby step to salute..."

John Kerry to himself.

[Bonaventure]

You're right that this is more or less within Rasmussen's steady range of outcomes, but it is still something of a reversal from the previous day. At the moment, we have no basis for thinking this is statistically significant. I guess we should wait at least another few days.