N. Korea: [Ryongchon Mystery]Who Blew Up Ryongchon?(Extensive Details)

It has been almost two months since Ryongchon Train Explosion occurred in N. Korea. A plenty of relief aids were sent from all over the world, when the world saw pictures of children badly wounded by the blast. According to Lee Jong-hyuk, the vice chairman of N. Korean Asia-Pacific Peace Committee, who visited Seoul on June 14th, the reconstruction and repair of Ryongchon would be complete by coming October. Its residents, especially those wounded children, could soon start smiling again at their new homes and schools.

However, under such an uplifting outlook, intelligence agents and experts are churning out diverse analyses on the cause of Ryongchon incident. Many questions have been raised. These analyses lacks clear evidence in general, which limits their credibility. However, the official explanations given by N. Korean authorities are far from satisfactory, which continue to fuel speculations. 'Ryongchon Legend', circulating among sources and intelligence operatives, could eventually turn out to be true.

There were THREE special trains(for Kim Jong-il): Chinese sources, who have contacts with American intelligence and N. Korean intelligence operatives, claim that, in the morning of April 22nd, the day of the incident, (Kim Jong-il's) three special trains left from Shinuiju(10 miles north of Ryongchon at Sino-N. Korean border.) N. Koreans were guarding against possible mishaps. There were two rail lines between Shinuiju and Yomju(of N. Pyongan Province.) One is the Shinuiju-Ryongchon-Yomju route. The other is Shinuiju-Pihyun-Yomju. Some of the three trains passed through Ryongchon. The rest went through Pihyun. The maximum difference between the arrival times of these trains at Pyongyang was about 8 hours apart.

Soon after the incident, there was an analysis saying, 'Kim Jong-il's special train passed Ryongchon 8 hours before the explosion.' Media reported it and turned into a consensus. The information that special trains' schedule is 8 hours apart and the explosion occurred 8 hours after a special train passed stirs intriguing speculation. If we assume that the incident is an attempted terrorism against Kim Jong-il, we can suspect that the perpetrators timed the explosion when the train passed the Ryongchon station. They did not know there were three special trains.

Assassination theory: June 13th edition of Sunday Telegraph of Britain drew attention by reporting an interesting article on Ryongchon incident. It said that the explosion at Ryongchon station could be an attempt to assassinate Kim Jong-il. According to this newspaper, "N. Korean officials, who had detailed knowledge on the investigation of the incident in progress, believe that cell phone was used as a detonator. They found remains of cell phone with adhesive tapes attached." Quoting anonymous N. Korean officials, they reported, "Investigators doe not know who set up the explosive device even if there was indeed such a device." Because of this, N. Korean authorities started to confiscate cell phones which some civilians and officials have been using lately. It has been verified that N. Koreans indeed began the confiscation since last month. This gives credence to Sunday Telegraph's report.

Scud missile explosion and presence of Syrians: An American diplomatic source said that Scud-D missile debris were found at the explosion site, which has had the world of intelligence operatives buzzing. According to the source, spy satellites were repositioned over the blast site right after the incident, taking thousands of pictures. They showed many missile fragments. Another diplomatic source in Seoul commented, "Generally, the resolution of satellite pictures is not high. At first, you get the far-away shots. With enough time, you can get the close-ups detailed enough to recognize a lighter-size object. Two days after the incident, only far-away shots of Ryongchon were reported in the media. However, in incremental manner, better close-ups of the blast site were produced. American intelligence agency found missile components in those pictures."

Analyzing Scud-D missile debris from the pictures, they concluded that there were at least three missiles involved. When missiles are shipped, their fuel tanks, warheads, electronic circuit, and guidance system were separately shipped. As with other countries, N. Korea manufactures missile components at different plants. For example, fuel tanks are produced at Chemical Weapons Institute at Nam-chun Dong, Kanggye City, Jagang Province. Electronic circuits are manufactured at No. 38 plant near Chongchon River. Assembling missiles are done at the plant at San-eum Dong, Pyongyang City. Each plant places its marking on the components it produced. American intelligence examined the markings on missile debris, and concluded that more than three missiles blew up.

Why did the missiles go off at Ryongchon station? The clues to the answer were also found in those pictures. They found 10 dead Arabs in protective suit at the site. Americans magnified the image of faces of the dead Arabs. At the same time, using intelligence sources in the Arab world, they verified that the special plane picked up 10 corpses in Pyongyang on May 1st, and flew to a Mid-Eastern country. It turned out that the cargo owner of corpses turned out to be a company named 'General Research.' The company has had clandestine dealing with N. Korea. On top of that, the company did autopsy on the bodies, which contained Scud-D missile debris and dirt and blown pieces of construction materials (from Ryongchon.) Americans showed photos of dead men's faces to their families, who confirmed, "He is my husband.", or "He is my son." Americans also secured testimonies from a few families of the deceased, such as "My husband told me before his departure about his top secret mission, saying, 'I go to N. Korea to buy missiles.'"

In addition, satellite photos showed N. Korean soldiers in protective suit from chemical warfare unit. The diplomatic source went on to say, "Missiles could have been tipped with bio/chem warheads." America imposed sanction on the country in question after warning them about their proliferation of WMD arsenal.

The source continued, "We believe that missiles were in waiting to be shipped to Yong-am-po, a port near Ryongchon. Yong-am-po, where N. Korean naval base is stationed, has been involved in clandestine arms shipment by N. Koreans, according to American intelligence." However, he declined to reveal the photo of missile fragments and Arab corpses.

The account of these particular diplomatic sources is different from many other rumors on Ryongchon incident. It is so detailed that it might well be true. If this is indeed true, the nature of Ryongchon incident is radically different from what we have believed so far. It is a well-known fact that meticulous safety mechanism are deployed when transporting missiles. Sparks of a loose wire cannot touch off explosion. Traces of dynamite from Arabs' body suggests a possibility that dynamites blast set off the missile explosion.

Putting together pieces of evidence and inferences, we can say that Ryongchon explosion is not an accident but an operation by somebody. As Sunday Telegraph pointed out, this may have been an attempt on Kim Jong-il's life. At the least, we could conclude that it was not an accident. As a matter of fact, Shinuiju Branch Office of N. Korean State Security Dept, who conducted initial investigations, was leaning on the possibility that the explosion was not accidental but deliberately set off, according to Chinese sources.

Mysterious crater of Ryongchon: Right after the incident, the pictures of the blast crater were taken by the satellites. Initially, the official explanation given by N. Korean authorities was that freight cars carrying ammonium nitrate and fuel oil were switching a track when they came in contact with loose electrical cables, creating a spark that set off the cargos.

When ammonium nitrate or fuel oil explode, its blast speed is slower than explosives. The resulting shockwave tend to disperse horizontally , which creates a shallow crater with slow slope. The crater formed by Oklahoma blast of a state building exemplifies the prototypical shape of ammonium nitrate crater. On the other hand, high explosives like dynamites or C4 have fast blast speed. The resulting shockwave does disperse significantly in vertical direction. It creates a crater with steep slope. Iri Explosion in S. Korea(in 70's), where cargo cars filled with dynamites blew up, produced such a type of crater. Ryongchon crater has steep slope. Therefore, high explosives went off.

According to missile experts, if fuel tanks of N. Korean Scud-D missiles blow up, they produce shockwave as powerful as high explosive. If fuel tanks and warheads go off together, the resulting explosion would be devastating.

Secret of ammonium fertilizer: Ammonium nitrate, that is, ammonium fertilizer is used for growing crops. It is needed in July or August. There can be no reason that it is on freight car on April 22nd. If there is fertilizer in need at the time at farms, it would be not be ammonium nitrate but urea fertilizer who can better help initial growth of crops. Furthermore, there is no fertilizer plant near Ryongchon.

Based on data from seismic recording stations recorded after Ryongchon Blast, the magnitude of the blast was reported to be that of 800 tons of TNT, it should be noted. N. Korean authorities announced that the power of blast was equivalent to 100 tons of TNT. Of course, it is possible that N. Korea made wrong estimate. However, the difference between 800 tons and 100 tons is simply too big. 4 freight car full of ammonium nitrate and a few car full of fuel oil produce explosion far less than that of 100 tons of TNT, experts say. Consequently, whether ammonium nitrate went off or not, something else also blew up at the time of Ryongchon incident, if we believe the announcement of seismic recording stations that the blast is equivalent to 800 tons of TNT.

It is not clear yet whether Ryongchon explosion was an accident or an operation. N. Korean authorities ruled it as an accident. However so many (credible) suspicions were raised that their words lack credibility. They have had recently wrapped up thorough investigation on the incident, and submitted their report to Kim Jong-il. Its content is not known yet. It would be known some day, sources say. The final page on Ryongchon incident has not been written yet.

Many arguments here matches opinions of resident experts in FR who posted on Ryongchon-related threads. There are more detailed information here than previous news reports. However, some content in the article is questionable. I can believe about 80% of what is written in this article.

The one I have most beef with is the following

....Americans magnified the image of faces of the dead Arabs.... Americans showed photos of dead men's faces to their families, who confirmed, "He is my husband.", or "He is my son."....

Even if they could magnify the images of faces and obtain good quality pictures of the faces, I suspect that their faces were badly damaged by the blast, perhaps beyond recognition. How can any relatives recognize their faces then? Another point is that, if the dead were indeed Syrians, how could Americans meet them and show satellite pictures of their faces taken from the blast site? Would Syria allow it? I highly doubt it.

I agree ! This "analysis" is interesting,but not the most factual I've ever read.

It's no secret NK has been building and shipping missiles and components to anyone who has the cash to buy them;BUT,the photos I've seen of the RR cars,etc. seem pretty clear: the explosions took place INSIDE box cars loaded with what appears to be ammonium nitrate.On the outsides of the cars,and around the blast holes,one can see white,crystalline-looking powder:loose ammonium nitrate.

It's entirely possible there may have been an assassination attempt:explosive "booster" charges packed into the nitrate cars;but the more likely scenario seems to have been fire-as in the Texas City blast (before your time,kiddies !).
Ammonium nitrate will explode if it catches fire while tightly confined.

Too much of this story (including the laughable nonsense about the face photos) smacks of BS.

I still think it was a nuke that had a partial fizzle. There was very likely something in the neighborhood of 1KT of devastation, which would be in line with a warhead that went off, but not with all of its charges going off at the same time.

There is a widespread believe that unless *all* of the shaped charges go off in perfect timing, the fizzle will result in a chemical-only explosion, with none of the nuclear fuel "going fission".

This is not a universal truth. It's been documented that in many of the US tests, when a "fizzle" occurred, there would be a partial nuclear explosion. Much smaller than the design yield, yes -- but, an bona fide nuclear kaboom nonetheless.

I believe I've read that they spec out the expected nuclear yield from such "fizzles" for the various weapons in our arsenal, so that they'll know how much damage to expect if Joe Klutz drops a wrench during assembly or maintenance (or disassembly, for that matter).

I don't think we'll ever know the truth about what happened there. The N.Koreans obviously won't want the world to know they had a nuke go off "by accident" (or by *design*, if that's how it went down), and our rulers certainly won't want us to *gasp* ... PANIC!!!! by hearing about something *bad* happening in the world.

Welcome to the age of sanitized news. Get used to it.

>Americans magnified the image of faces of the dead Arabs
>Americans showed photos of dead men's faces to their families, who confirmed, "He is my husband.", or "He is my son." Americans also secured testimonies from a few families of the deceased, such as "My husband told me before his departure about his top secret mission, saying, 'I go to N. Korea to buy missiles.'"

Total BS. In an explosion of this magnitude, you would have trouble finding heads, let alone identify faces from even a LEO photo bird.

This segment of the anal is all speculation, and bad speculation at that.

Thanks for the ping, and for your work typing and translating! Most interesting, but I, too, wonder about the passage regarding recognizing faces. That was a huge explosion by all accounts. In the OKC bombing, many people caught in the explosion had to be identified via dna: there simply wasn't anything else to "recognize." It was very difficult work, and took over a year before everyone was finally identified. (Many were right away, but others were far more difficult.)

Welcome to the age of sanitized news. Get used to it.

Yeppers. Even if it was Scuds with fuel, oxidizer, and high-explosive warheads all on the same train, you would need a buttload of Scuds to make a 0.8kT boom.

Something very siginificant happened in Rongchong. This article doesn't do much to clarify what.

Prediction:

Throughout the rest of 2004, we will see more of these accidents happening in:

1. Iran in their nuclear playgrounds.

2. Syria in their WMD playgrounds.

3. N Korea in their Playgrounds of Death waiting to be exported.

Syria has had several of these accidents. Iran has had a couple of accidents since 9/11.

..."blast is equivalent to 800 tons of TNT"...
If true, this wasn't a couple of scuds, or fertilizer. A nearly 1 Kiloton blast sounds more like a tactical nuke. but, I suppose radiation would be present. Could they hide something like that? I have my doubts.

Yeppers. Even if it was Scuds with fuel, oxidizer, and high-explosive warheads all on the same train, you would need a buttload of Scuds to make a 0.8kT boom.

Not only that, but you'd have to be absolutely crazy to ship any type of missile WITH fuel. For handling purposes you'd ship them empty and without warheads attached.

Of course it is always possible that there were tanker cars containing the fuel, oxidizers and warheads separately. Very risky.

On a recent trip to Milwaukee I got into a conversation with the airport van driver about this incident. He was very interested but had no clue that the incident had occurred, let alone WMD's could be involved. The usual news sources do a good job of not keeping people informed. I told the driver to get his news on line at FreeRepublic. He may well be here now.

Thanks for the interpreted version. As you point out, some of the contents are indeed questionable. You've already talked about the pictures of the faces, but I wanted to mention also that the article seems to say that American satellite pictures were enhanced so as to produce recognizable portraits of the dead -- not a very likely scenario.

I take a bit of exception with this part:

The problem with this is that it's highly unlikely that the missiles were being shipped all the way to Syria while fully fueled.

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