Posted on 04/27/2004 5:15:03 AM PDT by Darth Reagan
IT’S APRIL, SO IT’S ACADEMIC Bush 50.39 | Kerry 48.03
April 27, 2004
If I had to predict this election today, I’d see this race as I usually see Duke/UNC basketball games. One of three things will happen. Duke will win in a blow-out. Duke will win a close one. Or UNC will win a close one. But no way will UNC win a blow-out. I hope things are different next year, though.
In this election, Bush is Duke and UNC is Kerry. I see no way that Kerry can win a significant electoral victory in November. If history is a guide, Kerry won’t get more electoral votes than Clinton did in 1996, when he won 379-159. And Clinton won states where Kerry appears to have little chance – Tennessee, Arizona, Nevada and Louisiana.
But even though it’s early, Kerry shows significant weakness because he has failed to gain any ground during a recent avalanche of bad news for Bush. Some say that Bush has held up his numbers because of the rally-round-the-president factor, but I don’t think this is so. Recent polls show Bush has increased his job approval numbers, while Kerry’s negatives have risen. And Kerry’s negatives aren’t up because of Bush’s ad campaigns, as pollsters have found less disapproval increases in battleground states. Bush can attribute much of his success to Kerry’s return to making speeches in public – he really does make Dole look like he has passion and Gore look like he has pizzazz.
But it’s more than Kerry’s inability to connect with voters and be liked. In weeks when Bush trailed in the polls, he was rated low on domestic issues. If it’s the economy, stupid, then Bush will win because he leads on foreign policy. Why? The economy has rebounded and the voters are refusing to let it be talked down. In the recent ABC News poll, Bush outperforms Kerry on Terrorism, Iraq, Same-Sex Marriage, Taxes and Education and is tied or trails Kerry within the margin of error on the Economy, Job creation, Deficit, Prescription Drugs, Social Security and Health Insurance - The bread and butter of recent Democrat campaigns.
And after Dick Morris wrote that incumbents only get 15% of the undecided vote, Democrats probably were encouraged. But, as I’ll write in more detail later, Morris’ analysis is wrong (unless he’s comparing April undecideds to November results – because those undecided in November polls do not, as a rule, break for the challenger).
So, it does seem that the state of the economy will be very important, as movement in Bush’s favor in the economic indicators, and, more importantly, in people’s perception of the economy, has favored Bush in head-to-head matchup.
But, the polls reveal a weakness for Bush. His disapproval ratings remain in the mid-40s. That’s high. That’s a lot of people who either won’t vote for him or (if Kerry doesn’t close the deal) will stay home. Also, Bush doesn’t reach 50 percent in any polls. That’s not good for a President that is well known by the electorate. At least Kerry can argue that he is un- or poorly defined. This week’s composite result pushes Bush over 50%, but only barely, and only because I allocate the undecided based on job approval and favorability and unfavorability ratings for each candidate. Without the allocation, the composite is Bush 44.8, Kerry 41.5, Undecided 12.1. That’s a big undecided number. If Morris is right and April undecided voters break 85/15 for the challenger, then Kerry wins 51.8-44.8. A huge victory that makes him President: Kerry 324 | Bush 214.
(Excerpt) Read more at federalreview.com ...
I said...vote Nader LOL. Anyway, if THIS guy doesn't like Kerry I am sure many, many other democrats don't as well. Kind of a nice feeling from the right, no?
If I try to open the images in a separate window, I get a 404.
Interestingly, the image works on this thread, but the URL is completely different than you have up on your site.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
