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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
TradeSports.com ^
| Monday, March 22, 2004
| Momaw Nadon
Posted on 03/22/2004 9:54:00 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
State |
% Chance of Bush Winning |
Bush Electoral Votes |
Kerry Electoral Votes |
Alabama |
92.0 |
9 |
0 |
Alaska |
92.0 |
3 |
0 |
Arizona |
72.0 |
10 |
0 |
Arkansas |
67.0 |
6 |
0 |
California |
17.0 |
0 |
55 |
Colorado |
78.0 |
9 |
0 |
Connecticut |
13.0 |
0 |
7 |
Delaware |
24.0 |
0 |
3 |
District of Columbia |
1.0 |
0 |
3 |
Florida |
61.0 |
27 |
0 |
Georgia |
90.0 |
15 |
0 |
Hawaii |
13.0 |
0 |
4 |
Idaho |
95.0 |
4 |
0 |
Illinois |
18.0 |
0 |
21 |
Indiana |
86.0 |
11 |
0 |
Iowa |
46.0 |
0 |
7 |
Kansas |
94.0 |
6 |
0 |
Kentucky |
88.0 |
8 |
0 |
Louisiana |
84.0 |
9 |
0 |
Maine |
22.0 |
0 |
4 |
Maryland |
18.0 |
0 |
10 |
Massachusetts |
5.0 |
0 |
12 |
Michigan |
42.0 |
0 |
17 |
Minnesota |
33.0 |
0 |
10 |
Mississippi |
91.0 |
6 |
0 |
Missouri |
63.0 |
11 |
0 |
Montana |
90.0 |
3 |
0 |
Nebraska |
95.0 |
5 |
0 |
Nevada |
67.0 |
5 |
0 |
New Hampshire |
65.0 |
4 |
0 |
New Jersey |
17.0 |
0 |
15 |
New Mexico |
57.0 |
5 |
0 |
New York |
13.0 |
0 |
31 |
North Carolina |
84.0 |
15 |
0 |
North Dakota |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Ohio |
65.0 |
20 |
0 |
Oklahoma |
95.0 |
7 |
0 |
Oregon |
39.0 |
0 |
7 |
Pennsylvania |
49.0 |
0 |
21 |
Rhode Island |
5.0 |
0 |
4 |
South Carolina |
85.0 |
8 |
0 |
South Dakota |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Tennessee |
77.0 |
11 |
0 |
Texas |
95.0 |
34 |
0 |
Utah |
95.0 |
5 |
0 |
Vermont |
8.0 |
0 |
3 |
Virginia |
88.0 |
13 |
0 |
Washington |
35.0 |
0 |
11 |
West Virginia |
49.0 |
0 |
5 |
Wisconsin |
47.0 |
0 |
10 |
Wyoming |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Totals |
|
278 |
260 |
TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Unclassified; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush; election; electionpresident; electoral; electoralcollege; electoralvote; electoralvotes; georgebush; georgewbush; gwb2004; president; presidentbush; presidential; vote; votes
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I went to
TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 278 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 260 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 289.24 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
To: Momaw Nadon
2
posted on
03/22/2004 9:54:27 AM PST
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: Momaw Nadon
bmp
3
posted on
03/22/2004 9:57:26 AM PST
by
shield
(Scientific Discoveries of the century reveal GOD!!!!)
To: Momaw Nadon
They think Bush has a 65% chance of winning Ohio?
To: Your Nightmare
They think Bush has a 65% chance of winning Ohio?
Yes, the political futures traders on TradeSports.com think President Bush has a 65% chance of winning Ohio's 20 Electoral Votes.
5
posted on
03/22/2004 10:11:59 AM PST
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: Momaw Nadon
Note Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin who are all in the Kerry column with only a few percentage points. If they tip over to W, then Kerry is totally done for.
ScaniaBoy
6
posted on
03/22/2004 10:21:04 AM PST
by
ScaniaBoy
To: ScaniaBoy
Poll i read this morning Had Bush ahead of Kerry in PA
7
posted on
03/22/2004 10:25:05 AM PST
by
DM1
To: Momaw Nadon
Bush has more work to do in Ohio... I think some independant commercials (ala Moveon) should be utilized in Ohio
8
posted on
03/22/2004 10:27:44 AM PST
by
smith288
(Who would terrorists want for president? 60% say Kerry 25% say Bush... Who would you vote for?)
To: smith288
I think some independant commercials (ala Moveon) should be utilized in Ohio Done by conservatives...
9
posted on
03/22/2004 10:28:44 AM PST
by
smith288
(Who would terrorists want for president? 60% say Kerry 25% say Bush... Who would you vote for?)
To: Momaw Nadon
Well, this is all for fun and games, but it is interesting to note that people are believing that this is going to be a tight one. The first one in early January had people betting on a devastating Bush blowout, now they think he will have a close win. No time for complacency people. This one is going to be a bruiser.
To: Momaw Nadon
These look to me to be more accurate guesses than the polls.
The state that to me looks most out of kilter is Minnesota. Minnesota was within 2% last time, but Bush is only given a 33% chance of winning, whereas Wisconsin is and Iowa are almost 50/50. Minnesota seems low.
Idaho seems low too. I don't think Kerry has a 5% chance. Gore lost by 40 points in 2000. That's a lot of ground to make up.
D.C. seems about right.
11
posted on
03/22/2004 10:34:30 AM PST
by
TomEwall
To: TomEwall
I agree on Minnesota. Not only did Bush only lose by 2 points last time, but Minnesota is one of the most Republican trending states in the nation. Look what happened there in the '02 midterms. For now, I would put the odds there at near even.
12
posted on
03/22/2004 11:15:24 AM PST
by
DallasJ7
To: TomEwall
Place your bets ;-)
13
posted on
03/22/2004 11:15:54 AM PST
by
MattinNJ
(America will never seek a permission slip to defend the security of our people.)
To: MattinNJ
I'm not much of a gambler, but betting that Bush will win Idaho sure seems like a safe bet to me. Of course, betting that Kerry will win D.C. looks pretty safe too. But then, you only win $1 on a $100 bet. But what would have to happen for Bush to win D.C.?
14
posted on
03/22/2004 11:49:24 AM PST
by
TomEwall
To: DM1
Poll i read this morning Had Bush ahead of Kerry in PA
That is not necessarily inconsistent with these data. What is being presented here is the probability of Bush or Kerry winning in each state, according to the dealers in this futures market. On the other hand, an opinion poll states the present voting inclination of the public. This implies that the dealers consider that it is likely that between now and election day Bush will lose ground in Pa.; however, it is also worth noting that the probability of Bush winning Pa. is given as 49%, this is as close a margin as possible, i.e., the dealers are probably evenly split on this case, with a tiny majority favouring Kerry in Pa.
15
posted on
03/22/2004 11:57:10 AM PST
by
tjwmason
(A voice from Merry England.)
To: TomEwall
I'd be looking for 4 horsemen in the sky if Bush won DC.
To: shield
Overall, I think this is probably fairly on target with who's gonna win what, but on the other hand, I think some of the percentages are a bit loopy.
For example: I think Bush has a better shot at carrying Minnisota then it thinks 33% is way too low, and while I certainly don't think he's gonna win California, 17% is a bit low. I'd say he has about a 35-40% chance of winning Cali, especially with 'Govanor Arnold' in the statehouse.
Likewise, I think Lousiana, Ohio, and Florida are a bit too strong in the Bush column. I'd say all of these are like 52% in his favor at most.
To: All
Gamblers are not always right. Money bet is not always "smart money". The betting favorite in a horse race only wins about 33% of the time.
Volunteer to GOTV, in battleground states. Not just where you live. Be willing to drive somewhere adjacent/possible if it is a battleground state to volunteer.
18
posted on
03/22/2004 12:06:59 PM PST
by
Owen
To: dogbyte12
Bush was projected as a landslide winner when it was thought Dean would win the nomination. When it became clear Kerry would be the nominee, things went back basically to Bush-Gore with a few exceptions, almost all good for Bush.
Better for Bush:
1) There are several states that Bush can go ahead of with very little movement
2) New Mexico is in the Bush camp
3) Pennsylvania 50/50
4) Florida in Bush camp
Worse for Bush:
1) W.V. 50/50
2) MN and OR have moved away
To win the election, Kerry would have to keep all the states Gore won, plus win some state or combination of states to add up to 10 points. This looks like it means he would have to win Florida, Missouri or Ohio. These states are at 61, 63 and 65 resp. Bush, to extend his lead to about 100 EV only needs to move 4 states which are at 49, 49, 47 and 46 (PA, WV, WI, and IA).
19
posted on
03/22/2004 12:07:10 PM PST
by
TomEwall
To: Momaw Nadon
Oh, and does Bush really have an 83% chance at winning Indiana? Seems a bit high to me, especially if Kerry picks Evan Bhay (SP?)
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