Turnout calculations

Washington Times ^ | 3/22/04 | Donald Lambro

[kattracks]

One of the best-kept political secrets of the Democratic primaries until now has been their low voter turnout, a potentially troubling development for the party's chances in November.

Despite rah-rah news reports that an aroused and angry Democratic voter base was turning out in droves to choose their party's presidential nominee, Democratic turnout was, in the aggregate, the third-lowest on record.

[goldstategop]

There's no great enthusiasm on the Left for Kerry. The Democrats are stuck with him and by the time he becomes better known, he won't stand a chance in November. Once President Bush is through defining him, even Kerry's own mother wouldn't vote for him.

[Not a 60s Hippy]

We not only have to reelect Bush but we have to get honest conservative Republicans elected. I have averaged the total rating of the Republicans, both House and Senate. These ratings have dropped 10% in the House and 8% in the Senate from 2002 to 2003. Only nine Republican Senators have maintained or improved their conservative ratings. In the House only 12 Republican Congress members have maintained or improved their conservative ratings. Looks like we have a bunch of Republicans that do not understand the definition of CONSERVATIVE.

[Amelia]

BTTT & placemarker

[DustyMoment]

No, it hasn't gone unnoticed.

"Democratic turnout "reached record lows" in some of the most intensely Democratic states in the country."

The "record lows" are a strong indicator that Dems are NOT firmly united behind Kerry and that many have troubling questions about their selected candidate. I have stated previously that I don't think that Kerry will survive the convention. The low voter turnout for Kerry is a significant reason why.

[billorites]

"There's no great enthusiasm on the Left for Kerry."

Regardless of the number of delegates he has accumulated, I have a funny feeling that he's not going to emerge from the convention as the nominee.

[ScoochDude]

I assumed the primary turn out would be low.

They don't have to raise their dead voters until the general election.

[sweetliberty]

"There's no great enthusiasm on the Left for Kerry."

.

[Judith Anne]

Great cartoon!

I noticed the low turnout in MO for the dem primaries, and my assessment is that average voters (at least in this state) don't like Kerry's antiwar stance; most also don't care for the Ted Knight voice, and his clueless preacher rhetoric. Some dems here are uneasy, too, nobody wants their taxes raised. Everyone remembers that Clinton said he wouldn't raise taxes, and did...most will vote with their wallets and re-elect President Bush (around here).

[Owen]

Schedule a few days off NOW for election day and before. Work, not just at home, but in Battleground States. Get up early election day, vote, and then get in your car if you live adjacent to a battleground and drive to volunteer to pick up elderly veterans to take them to the polls.

Tactics trump policy every single time. Win the tactical war.

[sr4402]

I have stated previously that I don't think that Kerry will survive the convention.

Could you elaborate or give us a URL? What would happen that Kerry would not survive the convention? He has the delegates doesn't he?

[bondjamesbond]

I have heard two stories after each 'Rat primary this year.

1) Record turnout by masses of energized 'Rats. This is a lie, plain and simple. It has been told, time and time again, since New Hampshire.

2) Exit polls show a majority of voters are angry at President Bush. This is a bare majority of voters who bothered to come out and vote in an irrelevant 'Rat primary. They are not representative. This is like reporting that the majority of delegates to the Republican National Convention support the President. And yet this result is reported, time and time again.

[DustyMoment]

Kerry has delegates, but he lacks strong Democrat support. Every primary that he "won" was won with less than half of the registered Dem voters. In fact, the 2004 Dem primaries recorded the third LOWEST voter turnout on record. This is highly significant.

There is a lot more hype and frenzy about Kerry from the liberal press than there is from grassroots Democrats. A recent poll indicated that 41% of Dem voters still don't know enough about Kerry to make a decision about voting for him. IMO, as the campaign goes forward and Kerry continues making gaffes, lies and egregious missteps, his support will fade. He simply has too much baggage to be elected and, as more info about him and his record are revealed, I think that Dem voters will experience a serious case of buyer's remorse.

By the time the convention comes around, I believe that one of two things will occur: 1) Either the delegates will revolt and force a draft or, 2) the Clinton machine will kick in and force an alternative. At this point in the campaign there are so many negative articles about Kerry popping up all over, it is enough to suggest that he is in severe trouble.

This is why I don't believe that he will survive the convention. By holding the primaries so early, the Dems have tried to force the campaign to begin before the candidates are officially endorsed by their respective convention. What I think it is going to do is give more Dems more time to re-think their choice of candidates.

[sr4402]

Kerry has delegates, but he lacks strong Democrat support. Every primary that he "won" was won with less than half of the registered Dem voters.

Yes, I believe Kerry's base is very weak, but the process is defined. Kerry has gotten the requisite number of candidates to make it impossible for any other candidate to get the nomination based on delegates. Delegates are only free to vote otherwise if their candidate is gone. Thus Dean's delegates will be free to vote for Kerry at the convention. Kerry's delegates are bound to him unless Kerry bows out.

So the only way I see that another candidate could beat Kerry would be for Kerry to bow out at the convention. He could do this 'for the greater good of the party' and beg Hillary to step in. I could see this if his poll numbers drag into the 20s.

But I think the press is "Kerrying Water" for him right now, suppressing his Anti-War activities and justifying his unjustifiable senate record. As long as Kerry appears in striking distance of the presidency, I don't see him leaving the race.