Most accurate model predicts..who wins in 2020

Moody's Analytics

[max americana]

“Country’s burning, economy isn’t doing so great and we’re in the middle of an insurrection.”

You’re kidding me right?

I felt worse when that POS Kenyan won in 2008. NOTHING comes close to my misery index.

[Hulka]

I would like to disagree . . . But can’t

[Dave W]

I absolutely love your date of Sept 1, 1939. I have not seen that before but it is brilliant, timely and spot on. I will have to steal it.

[dsc]

“I think the economy is stronger than ever.”

I’m an elderly cripple. I pulled into the drive-up window at Popeye’s, and the woman who gave me my chicken offered me a job.

[SunkenCiv]

bfl

[Marchmain]

If Trump wins but is powerless, that’s still better than the damage that could be done by Biden/Harris/whoever.

[SunkenCiv]

• President Trump Finalizes Rule Stopping Obamacare From Forcing Doctors to Do Abortions
• Trump says 'no way' will he allow Joe Biden's supporters to 'totally destroy our great police departments' as president gets set to deliver commencement speech at West Point
• Los Angeles Retroactively Defunds LAPD Overtime
• Ilhan Omar's GOP challenger eyes upset in November, hits 'unthinking' call to defund police
• NBC Anchor Asks Sen. Scott If He's a 'Token' GOP Black
• Why Supporting Black Lives Matter Is Anti-Christian And Anti-Life
• Joe Biden considering ex-cop as veep, angering BLM activists (Val Demings)

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• BREAKING REPORT: Ukrainian Law Enforcement Arrest Individual Allegedly Attempting to End Investigation Into Burisma and Hunter Biden with $6 Million Bribe
• Ukraine alleges $5 million bribe over Burisma, no Biden link
• Mota Ventures Appoints Roger C. Clinton [yes, THAT Cllinton] as Member of Advisory Board to Verrian GmbH
• Watters World to Break Info on Clinton/Epstein

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• Must sign in to attend Hillary rally...or you don't...but you do ??!? (2016 video show Hillary's 'waiver')
• Hillary Clinton Criticizes Trump Campaign over Coronavirus Waiver: 'Shouldn't Be Holding' Rallies

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• DC Mayor hit with lawsuit over painting "Black Lives Matter" on city streets near White House
• DOJ Makes Over 80 Federal Arrests Amid Rioting in Wake of George Floyd Death
• More than 60 rioters, looters, and arsonists are facing federal charges. Here are their names, charges, cities, and other details.

  ---

• US bishops caught funding radical groups supporting riots, calling for 'death' to police
• Far-Left Laodicean Magazine 'Christianity Today' Demands That America's Christian Churches Pay Reparations to Blacks For Slavery

  ---

• Confusion as Seattle activists change CHAZ to CHOP
• Protester in Seattle's CHAZ demands white demonstrators give out cash
• I was hacked, Seattle autonomous zone 'warlord' says, as old homophobic tweets surface from his account (Raz Simone)
• BLACK Berkeley professor writes blistering open letter, exposes the truth about racism, academic lies and BLM...
• Fire Breaks Out Near Seattle 'Autonomous Zone,' Protesters Reportedly Left with No Choice But To Phone City for Help
• From a software engineer to firebrand socialist councilwoman: Kshama Sawant, 46, helped create Seattle's CHAZ and refuses to let cops into the six-block zone despite Trump's claim the city is being 'pillaged' by 'domestic terrorists'
• Autonomous Zone Anarchists Holding Seattle Hostage Release Absurd List of Demands
• Protester in Seattle's CHAZ demands white demonstrators give out cash
• UPDATES From Antifa-stan: CHAZ Builds Border Wall, Establishes Segregated Gardens, Reportedly Deports Mexican
• Citizen Living In Seattle's Autonomous Zone: Activists 'Took Our Rights Away
• 'Whites Go to the Back!': Seattle Black Lives Matter Forces All Whites to Back Of Protest March

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• Antifa #CHAZ Thugs Attack, Choke and Sexually Assault Street Preacher in Seattle (Video)
• Video from Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone shows Antifa thugs chokeholding an innocent man
• Video from Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone: Antifa thugs forcefully imprison a Christian man while a gay Antifa man hugs and kisses him without his permission
• Seattle ANTIFA Soldiers in CHAZ Abuse Street Preacher while he cries out 'You're Choking Me' as Jeering Crowd Laughs

  ---

• U.S. embassy in Seoul displays Black Lives Matter banner in support of anti-racism protests
• Oprah is a leftist Trojan horse
• Disney and T-Mobile Drop Tucker Carlson Over BLM Remarks, #IStandWithTuckerCarlson Trends in Defiance(Papa John's and Vari too)
• Suspect involved in Christopher Columbus vandalism is teacher at Pawtucket Public Schools
• Parks Dept. employees spotted cleaning Coney Island bathroom with US flag
• The Party of Chaos and Falsehood
• Pritzker signs pandemic budget that relies on federal bailout that's not a guarantee, approves Medicaid for undocumented seniors
• Armed Patriots in Kentucky Declare 'This is Our Battle Line' as They Defend Confederate Statue From Mob
• We need malls to reopen or property taxes are going up, mayors say to Murphy
• Black Lives Matter: A Thing of the Left Anchored on a Cop-Hate Strategy
• Faces of disturbing trend: Minority-owned businesses at greater risk of going under during coronavirus pandemic
• The Era of Moral Thuggery
• John Cusack Declares: All Trump's 'Got Left Is Rascists'
• Black Lives Matter Founder an Open Supporter of Socialist Venezuelan Dictator Maduro
• EXCLUSIVE: Counterterrorism Expert Says 'The Goal Of Antifa Is To Overthrow The Government'
• There's No Sadistic Path to Restorative Justice
• Truck Drivers Say They Won't Deliver To Cities with Defunded Police Departments
• China reins in nationalists clamoring for an invasion of Taiwan
• 'You won': Andrew Cuomo promises to deny funding for local police departments that don't pass race reforms
• Dem Data Firm Backed by Former Google CEO Dismissed Employee for Linking Violent Protests and Voter Turnout
• Abraham Lincoln Statue In Boston 'Has To Go,' Petition Demands
• Don Lemon asks 'how can you not be racist' if you grew up in America?
• Watch: Pro-Police 'We Back Blue' March in Nation's Capital
• Joe Biden: 'Donald Trump Didn't Invent Racism, But He Sure Has Promoted It'
• African American reparation bill passes California Assembly
• ATTENTION MEDIA -- BLACK Berkeley professor writes blistering open letter, exposes the truth about racism, academic lies and BLM...
• Truckers wouldn't deliver to cities that defund police, poll suggests

[Jimmy Valentine]

Of your concerns the one that worries me most is vote fraud. The paper ballot scam is ripe for it.

[JPG]

Betting odds are even more predictive and Trump was leading until Floyd protesters and riots. Now behind in betting odds

Betting odds also massively favored Hillary. Made me some nice $ on that deal.

[9YearLurker]

Sadly this is ridiculous.

First of all this model is based on the good economic numbers back in October 2019—not the economic disaster we have right now.

Secondly backfitting new models to what historical data shows is notoriously sketchy. By definition a model that is carved around past results is easy to find, but not at all proven in a predictive sense. A model only has real legitimacy if it has been used repeatedly to hypothesis results—and then repeatedly turned out to be correct.

[Pollster1]

My model predicts a big Trump win on Election Day 2020, with what the math says is over 90% confidence. However, I have only minimal real-world confidence in any model this year. Between Trump Derangement Syndrome, riots/looting/arson, COVID-19, and the fully-deranged media, this election may not be comparable to previous election years that these models are using for data.

[entropy12]

Valid points!

[entropy12]

President is not powerless so long as he/she has the veto power. That makes it lot harder to override the veto.

Trump is fearless, he will use veto if he thinks it is needed, unlike Reagan who seldom used it.

[entropy12]

Yes, between mail in ballots everywhere and people afraid to get out to vote due to covid-19, this election is unpredictable.

[entropy12]

4.5 months to election day. I think it is enough time for economic rebound. Stocks are already recovering nicely. My portfolio was worth more last Friday than the highest value before covid-19 chaos appeared.

[9YearLurker]

Actually the most effective models for November presidential elections are based on circumstances in May of that year, not near November. And I think you’re in fantasy land if you think we’re gonna dig out of double-digit employment by then. After the $600 per week topper is gone in July many of those unemployed are going to become desperate. And I fully expect the Big Pharma/Fauci/Gates crew to serve up another attempted lockdown, complete with more nasty virus to assure mail-in voting.

[icclearly]

As has been pointed out, this is “history data” that is, it is 10 months old. The election is five months away, which is a lifetime in political terms.

Today the stock market (S&P) is down from its high in February by 10% and likely to be much lower in November. Unemployment is at 13% today and most estimates seem to put it at 10% by election date. No president has been elected since WWII with anything close to a 10% unemployment rate.

I want Trump to be our next President as bad as the next person, but if you look at the facts today, it does not look good — at all.

Five months is a lifetime. While you might “feel” that Trump will be the next President, the facts don’t bear that out today.

[Pollster1]

Exactly.

[entropy12]

If Americans are so naive, then yes, Trump will lose.