Posted on 09/27/2018 1:42:41 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Welcome to FiveThirtyEights weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
micah (Micah Cohen, managing editor): As far as we know, Republicans are pushing ahead with Brett Kavanaughs nomination to the Supreme Court for the moment, anyway amid accusations of sexual assault and misconduct from at least two women. Nate made a semi-compelling argument that thats a bad move politically. The counter-argument was succinctly expressed by Washington Free Beacon editor-in-chief Matthew Continetti in an interview with Politico:
A defeated Kavanaugh nomination would not only demoralize the conservative base, it could seriously jeopardize Trumps relationship with the conservative legal movement, and that could be crippling for conservative influence in the Trump era.
So, thats our question for today: If President Trump withdrew Kavanaughs nomination, would that depress conservative turnout in the midterms? And somewhat relatedly, would it have a long-term effect on Trumps relationship with the conservative legal movement?
Give me your topline views, and then we can get into it.
Also, welcome, politics editor Sarah Frostenson, to your first politics chat!!!
sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Hello, hello!
natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): My topline view is that: 1.It might be partially true, but probably also exaggerated by commentators who are extrapolating their own personal investment in seeing Kavanaugh confirmed to feelings among the voters or the base. 2.Even if its partly true, the alternatives for the GOP could be a lot worse. 3.The base might be despondent initially, but thered be an opportunity to rectify that if Trump successfully rolled out another conservative candidate.
micah: Having a topline view with three parts is very on-brand....
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
....it very likely might be the demonrat’s objective
Regardless of what happens to Judge, Brett Kavanaugh, the Republican base in now fired up to full pitch and is growing by leaps and bounds gaining “new” Trumpsters as each day goes by (African-Americana, Hispanics, disgruntled Democrats, and huge numbers of independent supporters.
POTUS, Trump himself has now taken on a tremendously, successful “campaign rally schedule” across the country for the next five or six weeks of this Mid-Term Election campaign. He will be holding four major political rallies in the next five days.
No, it will turn out in fury!
FYI: Trump Political Rally schedule next week:
- Wheeling, West Virginia - 09/29/2018 - Saturday
- Johnson City, Tennessee - 10/01/2018 - Monday
- Southaven, Mississippi - 10/02/2016 - Tuesday
- Rochester, Minnesota - 10/04/2018 - Thursday
See TrumpForPOTUS web site for free tickets (2) & more info.
I have a mail in ballot I need to open.
I’ll do it tomorrow.
I’m a little lazy to reach across the table today.
Yes. GOP base will stay home with nonchalance
Due to Supreme court’s decisions on Obamacare and gay marriage legalisation.
Due to GOP’s apparent liberal-leaning.
Reminds me of that game equines play on ice skates with curved sticks and a small black disc.
I’m with you: turn out in a fury. I refuse to sit home and allow Democrats to be rewarded for their disgusting behavior. Talk about cutting one’s nose off to spite their face!
So, uh...she DROVE out there to take a polygraph at the AIRPORT..?
Who believes THAT..?
This insect is a complete LIAR.
Agreed. Broken glass time.
If the Supreme Court appointment is controlled by feminists this time, they’ll control it permanently. And Republicans will have helped them do it.
With activist judges being appointed from now on, the judicial will control all three branches including the executive and legislative.
It’s already been very nearly that way for a long time.
So last chance. Voters see what’s going now, so the answer is obvious.
There would be no point in voting for the Republicans who betrayed us. There would be no wisdom in allowing our enslavement to be incremental and seem normal. It would be better to drop the vote, and let the fun begin sooner.
So the crazy preppers were right after all, although they didn’t know how the situation would come about.
“WROL.” Imagine that.
I won’t. It will give me more incentive to vote. Any Dem we can be shed of is worth it.
The 90% of GOP who love Trump know: Staying home is no longer an option.
However, were voting on individual Senators and what he/she does.
This is nearly all the fault of Murkowski and Collins - not up for re-election.
Not vote because of a vile stunt pulled by dirty loser democrats? NEVER
Voting is from Column A. Column B concerns the need to replenish the tree of liberty with blood. Let traitors be on notice. “If this be treason, make an end of it.”
The Deplorable base might get to the polls, but not out of any love or admiration for feckless DC Republican swampthings. Who won’t vote for them is people who agree with what President Trump strives to achieve, but won’t vote for pols who refuse to govern.
Nothing will stop me from voting. We owe it to Trump. He cant do it alone.
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