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Will The GOP Base Really Stay Home If Kavanaugh Isn’t Confirmed?
FiveThirtyEight ^ | September 26, 2018

Posted on 09/27/2018 1:42:41 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

micah (Micah Cohen, managing editor): As far as we know, Republicans are pushing ahead with Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court — for the moment, anyway — amid accusations of sexual assault and misconduct from at least two women. Nate made a semi-compelling argument that that’s a bad move politically. The counter-argument was succinctly expressed by Washington Free Beacon editor-in-chief Matthew Continetti in an interview with Politico:

“A defeated Kavanaugh nomination would not only demoralize the conservative base, it could seriously jeopardize Trump’s relationship with the conservative legal movement, and that could be crippling for conservative influence in the Trump era.”

So, that’s our question for today: If President Trump withdrew Kavanaugh’s nomination, would that depress conservative turnout in the midterms? And somewhat relatedly, would it have a long-term effect on “Trump’s relationship with the conservative legal movement”?

Give me your topline views, and then we can get into it.

Also, welcome, politics editor Sarah Frostenson, to your first politics chat!!!

sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Hello, hello!

natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): My topline view is that: 1.It might be partially true, but probably also exaggerated by commentators who are extrapolating their own personal investment in seeing Kavanaugh confirmed to feelings among “the voters” or “the base.” 2.Even if it’s partly true, the alternatives for the GOP could be a lot worse. 3.The base might be despondent initially, but there’d be an opportunity to rectify that if Trump successfully rolled out another conservative candidate.

micah: Having a topline view with three parts is very on-brand....

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Campaign News; Issues; Parties; State and Local
KEYWORDS: 2018; demoralization; division; fatfeminism; flamebait; kavanaugh; scotus; supremecourt
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What say you?
1 posted on 09/27/2018 1:42:41 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

....it very likely might be the demonrat’s objective


2 posted on 09/27/2018 1:49:17 AM PDT by Doogle (( USAF.68-73....8th TFW Ubon Thailand....never store a threat you should have eliminated)))
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Regardless of what happens to Judge, Brett Kavanaugh, the Republican base in now fired up to full pitch and is growing by leaps and bounds gaining “new” Trumpsters as each day goes by (African-Americana, Hispanics, disgruntled Democrats, and huge numbers of independent supporters.

POTUS, Trump himself has now taken on a tremendously, successful “campaign rally schedule” across the country for the next five or six weeks of this Mid-Term Election campaign. He will be holding four major political rallies in the next five days.


3 posted on 09/27/2018 1:53:54 AM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX (Defeat both the Republican (e) & Democrat (e) political parties....Forever!!!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

No, it will turn out in fury!


4 posted on 09/27/2018 1:59:49 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: JLAGRAYFOX

FYI: Trump Political Rally schedule next week:

- Wheeling, West Virginia - 09/29/2018 - Saturday

- Johnson City, Tennessee - 10/01/2018 - Monday

- Southaven, Mississippi - 10/02/2016 - Tuesday

- Rochester, Minnesota - 10/04/2018 - Thursday

See TrumpForPOTUS web site for free tickets (2) & more info.


5 posted on 09/27/2018 2:02:32 AM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX (Defeat both the Republican (e) & Democrat (e) political parties....Forever!!!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I have a mail in ballot I need to open.
I’ll do it tomorrow.
I’m a little lazy to reach across the table today.


6 posted on 09/27/2018 2:04:50 AM PDT by Berlin_Freeper (alea iacta est)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Patriots ALWAYS go to the polls, notwithstanding the paradox that a dog that won't hunt, MUST be put down! Take out the traitors and fortify the faithful with wreckless abandon and glee! The victory belongs to the Lord.
7 posted on 09/27/2018 2:06:29 AM PDT by Theophilus (Repent)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Yes. GOP base will stay home with nonchalance

Due to Supreme court’s decisions on Obamacare and gay marriage legalisation.

Due to GOP’s apparent liberal-leaning.


8 posted on 09/27/2018 2:09:45 AM PDT by granada
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Reminds me of that game equines play on ice skates with curved sticks and a small black disc.


9 posted on 09/27/2018 2:12:01 AM PDT by ExGeeEye (For dark is the suede that mows like a harvest.)
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To: fortheDeclaration

I’m with you: turn out in a fury. I refuse to sit home and allow Democrats to be rewarded for their disgusting behavior. Talk about cutting one’s nose off to spite their face!


10 posted on 09/27/2018 2:14:11 AM PDT by usconservative (When The Ballot Box No Longer Counts, The Ammunition Box Does. (What's In Your Ammo Box?))
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
So accuser Blasey-Ford is deathly afraid of flying, okay. And she lives in California. But the month before she lets her accusations fly, she is polygraphed in Baltimore AT THE AIRPORT HOTEL..?!

So, uh...she DROVE out there to take a polygraph at the AIRPORT..?

Who believes THAT..?

This insect is a complete LIAR.

11 posted on 09/27/2018 2:20:33 AM PDT by gaijin
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To: fortheDeclaration

Agreed. Broken glass time.


12 posted on 09/27/2018 2:29:01 AM PDT by NELSON111 (Congress: The Ralph Wolf and Sam Sheepdog show. Theater for sheep. My politics determines my "hero")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If the Supreme Court appointment is controlled by feminists this time, they’ll control it permanently. And Republicans will have helped them do it.

With activist judges being appointed from now on, the judicial will control all three branches including the executive and legislative.

It’s already been very nearly that way for a long time.

So last chance. Voters see what’s going now, so the answer is obvious.

There would be no point in voting for the Republicans who betrayed us. There would be no wisdom in allowing our enslavement to be incremental and seem normal. It would be better to drop the vote, and let the fun begin sooner.

So the crazy preppers were right after all, although they didn’t know how the situation would come about.

“WROL.” Imagine that.


13 posted on 09/27/2018 2:35:49 AM PDT by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I won’t. It will give me more incentive to vote. Any Dem we can be shed of is worth it.


14 posted on 09/27/2018 2:38:49 AM PDT by DaiHuy (May God save the country, for it is evident the people will not! Millard Fillmore)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The 90% of GOP who love Trump know: Staying home is no longer an option.

However, we’re voting on individual Senators and what he/she does.

This is nearly all the fault of Murkowski and Collins - not up for re-election.


15 posted on 09/27/2018 2:39:17 AM PDT by ReaganGeneration2
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Not vote because of a vile stunt pulled by dirty loser democrats? NEVER


16 posted on 09/27/2018 2:42:22 AM PDT by EnquiringMind
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To: ReaganGeneration2

Voting is from Column A. Column B concerns the need to replenish the tree of liberty with blood. Let traitors be on notice. “If this be treason, make an end of it.”


17 posted on 09/27/2018 2:47:01 AM PDT by confederatecarpetbag
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The Deplorable base might get to the polls, but not out of any love or admiration for feckless DC Republican swampthings. Who won’t vote for them is people who agree with what President Trump strives to achieve, but won’t vote for pols who refuse to govern.


18 posted on 09/27/2018 2:50:38 AM PDT by grania
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Nothing will stop me from voting. We owe it to Trump. He can’t do it alone.


19 posted on 09/27/2018 2:54:46 AM PDT by jersey117
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
"So, that's our question for today: If President Trump withdrew Kavanaugh's nomination, would that depress conservative turnout in the midterms?"

That's not going to happen and shouldn't even be proposed here.

"And somewhat relatedly, would it have a long-term effect on 'Trump's relationship with the conservative legal movement'?"

The antecedent was wishful thinking in the heads of people separated from reality, so that's nonsense.


20 posted on 09/27/2018 2:55:23 AM PDT by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
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