Absentee Ballot - REPs led by 79,000
In-Person Early Voting - DEMs led by 247,000
Combined Early voting - DEMs led by 168,000
Obama won Florida in 2012 by 74,000 votes
2016 (ballots cast, not yet counted)
Absentee Ballot - REPs lead by 36,361
In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 30,631
Combined Early voting - REPs lead by 5,730
how about independants? I can’t see many of them breaking for hilLIARy
The REP lead in absentee ballots is now 2.5%. If things continue like this, I’ll have to raise my target above 3.0%!
Stunned that DEMs haven’t taken the lead in combined voting. Looking good so far...
Folks, go VOTE!
Lets assume about 80% of absentee ballots are returned and assume REP lead by 3%, say 43% to 40% with the rest Independents/Other.
3,230,314 total absentee ballots mailed as of today
2,584,251 total returned (3,230,314 * 0.8)
1,111,227 - REP 43% (2,584,251 * 0.43)
1,033,700 - DEM 40% (2,584,251 * 0.40)
77,527 REP Lead Predicted in ABSENTEE BALLOTS
Thank you, Speedy, for all your hard work on this. I’m in Florida, voted for the Donald on Monday. Did you say election day voting usually favors reps? I figure it does. Looking good for the man! Thanks!
I’d like to see the rate of climb on the Dem lead in Hillsborough flatten out a little, but otherwise these numbers are doable.
VERY IMPORTANT: please start posting U or independents/no affiliation. This is going to be key in FL, esp. in Hillsborough, Broward, Miami-Dade.
I am convinced that the Democrats stole Florida in 2012. The ballot box confusion in St. Lucie county in the middle of the night was very weird, And there were irregularities in Palm Beach County, as well.
I just voted for Trump early in Duval County, Florida.
In 2012, Romney got 14,896 more votes than Obama in Duval. That was 51.4% to 47.8%.
As of last night, the total of mailed in ballots and in-person ballots was 69,459 or 17% of all the votes that were cast in 2012. The breakdown so far on those voters: 44% R, 42.8% D, and 13.2% other. There are 11.5 days left of in-person, early voting in Duval.
One other thing. Lots of Republican counties don’t start early voting until Saturday October 29th. Look for a modest GOP boost starting Sunday.
The counties I’m looking at are Bay, Highlands, Pasco and Walton. Pasco especially. Very interesting. Lazy county supervisors didn’t want to start early voting October 24th like almost all the other counties did.
By my calculations, today the REPs have expanded their lead in overall ballot returns v. DEMs:
Absentee Ballot - REPs lead by 46,235
In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 34,510
Combined Early voting - REPs lead by 11,725