Posted on 07/06/2016 9:12:35 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Republicans may not be committing political hyperbole this year when they say their presidential candidate can win Pennsylvania, experts say.
Every election since Pennsylvania went for Bill Clinton in 1992, Republicans have declared “this time” the Keystone State will turn red.
And every cycle they fail.
This year might be different, according to experts in electoral math.
“Republicans don't need Pennsylvania to win the electoral vote, but Democrats do, and a loss here for Hillary Clinton on election night would likely mean she loses the White House by the morning,” said Lara Brown, director of George Washington University's political management program....
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Trumps gonna have to work the energy sector....both coal and fracking.
THE GOP’S CRITICAL 10
Here are the 10 counties experts identified as critical for a Republican win.
Bucks County: All agreed Bucks is the perfect gauge with the right mix of working class and suburban voters to see how the state is trending.
“Trump is really going to need to increase the share of the vote of the working-class Democrat and independent voters,” Olson said. “They are the sort of person you will see in Lower Bucks. If he is winning them in this county, then he is doing well in Lackawanna, Luzerne and Northampton in the east.”
Greene and Cambria counties: These two counties showed the largest swings toward Republicans from 2004 to 2012, Trende said. But there also was a drop-off of 7,000 votes in 2012. Voters who didn’t show up for Romney have to show up for Trump to offset heavily Democratic Philadelphia’s large population, Trende said.
Washington and Westmoreland counties: “Washington and Westmoreland counties have been going Republican since 1996, but they need to go in a bigger way for Trump to win,” Olson said.
Westmoreland is more of a suburban county and Washington is home to voters who would have been blue-collar Democrats 30 years ago, he said.
“Of the two, you are likely looking at Washington, where you are going to be likelier to find the increase in turnout and the swing toward Trump that he is going to need,” Olson said.
Lackawanna County: This county is going to go Democratic, but it is one of Trump’s biggest county wins in the Republican primary, Wasserman said.
Instead of losing by more than 20 points, Wasserman said losing by 15 points or less could help Trump carry the state. “This would be one to look at the margins,” he said.
Luzerne County: “This county is traditionally Democratic, but can Hillary bring that home with the economic and social issues tugging at her? This could be the year it goes for Trump,” Wasserman said.
Clinton bested rival Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by fewer than 2,000 votes in the Democratic primary. What’s more, that’s 27,000 fewer votes than she received in the 2008 Democratic primary.
“Luzerne is a useful county to watch,” Kondik said. “It is not prosperous and has a fairly high percentage of white residents. If Trump is re-writing the state’s playbook, that would seem like a county he could potentially carry.”
Dauphin County: “This county showed the largest swing in the state from Kerry to Obama; if it moves back, that suggests a large portion of the Obama phenomenon was Obama-specific,” Trende said.
York and Lancaster counties: “The triangle of Lancaster, Dauphin and York are the fastest-growing Hispanic population in the state, albeit still smaller than national trends,” Wasserman said. Clinton’s success relies on her ability to reach out to this community.
“If we start seeing voters in these 10 counties leaning (toward) Trump, we may be looking at something bigger — a new political realignment for both parties across the country,” Brown said.
I know. The fraud clowns in Philly always win in this state. Is there really a chance for Trump in this state?
Anything with a # mark is Philadelphia area. Those with * mark are scattered throughout the state except Philadelphia or the Southwest. No mark is SW Pennsylvania, including my home country of Westmoreland.
I don't know why except maybe the people I come in contact with are old school farmer type folks, independent cusses and folks (like my 74 yo neighbor) doesn't have a bank account (don't trust 'em) and just don't think politically.
Bucks resident here, Trump seems pretty popular with virtually no Hillary signs in middle to northern bucks.
More Bernie Sanders signs than Hillary.
of course southern Bucks is where the Dems do well..
I think this will be a big turn out. I am familiar with Cambria county and folks seem to have gotten pretty grim about things since 2012. The heroin and pill epidemic has ravaged certain areas pretty bad. I think with Trump a big turnout will be good for the pubs for once.
Freegards
Ezra Levant did a great series of TV spots on Sun News ... he went to Pennsylvania and interviewed people about how they felt about fracking (he also debunked the flaming tap water claims). The people there were very happy about fracking and said it had been a boon to the local economy.
Sun News is off the air but he still reports at The Rebel.
So yes, Trump should highlight energy issues and fracking. Wish I could send his people a copy of Ezra’s work on that.
The actual city of Harrisburg, however, will never go for Trump.
dems get 110% turnout in some Philadelphia counties!
I lived in Luzerne county, mentioned in the article, for over 10 years. Moved out to the country last year, but saw on our local news that thousands of people switched from Dem to Rep in luzerne for the primaries, and the workers saying they’ve never seen anything like it in 40 years.
I think Trump takes PA, the only determining factor will be how much can the Dems cheat in the urban areas to offset the Trump votes.
I’m a resident of Allegheny County which always goes Democrat because of Pittsburgh, but my vote will help the state total.
I’m a resident of Allegheny County which always goes Democrat because of Pittsburgh, but my vote will help the state total.
in SOMERSET COUNTY...We can be remember by 09/11/2001 and Flight #93 in Shanksville, PA. rural America, no jobs, no industry, no decent shopping, and no decent eateries. but we do have Rivers, and Mountains that touch, and we have lots of RECREATIONAL AREAS..Namely SEVEN SPRINGS..
The signs in our area are ALL TRUMP..NO CLINTON ANYTHING HERE, AND WE SURE DON'T NEED HER...But sure would be nice if the Chamber of Commerce allowed industry and jobs to locate here but they don't seem to agree.ah. but we are getting a TITLE 8 housing development and another fancy motel/hotel, that will hurt the smaller ones already here. But we do have a liberal, democrat small daily newsprint.. Sixty years ago it was a cool, neat, busy town..
He should opt for fracking in NYS, also. But the better solution might be for Guliani un for governor.
Pinging you TF members to this thread.
I am in Lower Bucks.It is always so hard to predict.I can tell you that people regretted voting Obama.
After Tuesday I put even less confidence in any political poll.
No matter how you paint it Hillary and, by extension, the entire Democratic party has clearly lied to the American Populace. How they will respond is still uncertain.
But, if a majority, even a simple majority, doesn’t like being lied to the results could be “Interesting” come November. Perhaps even better than the 1984 Presidential Elections.
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