Posted on 04/09/2016 10:00:06 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
After Cruz’ smashing win in Wisconsin, it’s on to New York. Will the Empire State break Cruz’ momentum and give Trump back his lead?
The key lies in the rules. Fourteen of New York’s ninety-five delegates will be elected at large and there remaining eighty-one will be chosen with three allocated to each of the twenty-seven congressional districts.
If a candidate gets fifty plus percent of the vote statewide or in any congressional district, he gets all the delegates statewide or in any such district. But if he falls short of fifty percent, he gets only a proportionate share of the fourteen delegates chosen at large. And, if he falls short of the fifty percent threshold in any district, but nevertheless finishes first, he gets two of the three delegates and the second place finisher gets one delegate from that district.
So, for Donald Trump, the key question is: Will he finish over 50%? If he does, he will win all 95 delegates at stake. But if he falls consistently short of 50% in each district, he will surrender at least 27 delegates to Cruz or Kasich, whoever finishes second.
The difference between winning 95 delegates and 68 is, for Trump, enormous. His ability to win on the first ballot could well be at stake.
The most recent poll, by CBS News/U Gov on April 1 showed Trump at 52% with Cruz at 21% and Kasich at 20%. If Trump should fall below 50% in districts across the state, he may lose at least 27 critically needed votes.
The irony of the New York State delegate selection process is that each congressional district gets three delegates. I doesn’t matter if the district is a Democratic or Republican district, they still get three votes at the GOP convention. In Republican districts upstate and in the suburbs, hundreds of thousands of voters will decide the allocation of the district’s three delegates. But in Democratic districts, particularly in minority areas, a tiny turnout, perhaps of only twenty or thirty thousand will decide the district’s allocation.
A total of 191,000 registered Republicans live in districts represented by an African-American or Latino congressmen. The districts’ Republican registration is as follows:
5 CD = 54,000 7 CD = 28,000 8 CD = 34,000 9 CD = 31,000 13 CD = 27,000 15 CD = 17,000
Total = 191,000
If the Republicans in these districts choose to reject Trump, they can have a vastly disproportionate pact, possibly denying him twelve delegates (two each) from the six minority districts. Add this to one each (the loser’s share) of the other twenty-one districts and Trump could lose as many as 33 of New York’s 95 delegates, a key setback.
Will Cruz be able to do it? Will Kasich? Cruz has the advantage both because of his incredible Wisconsin wipeout but also because he is the only candidate with money. Kasich doesn’t have much and Trump has shown himself unwilling to dig deep into his personal fortune.
Great....glad to her of your pushback.
I have told Priebus that. He is the jerk playing like he is king of the RNC. He is a pal of Walker and Ryan’s. We should all know by now that once a person gets to DC regardless of his/her intentions to do great things -they cannot. The reason is simple -the rest are on the cash to vote system and you can join or they will use their media contacts, their bankers, or their someone to trash you. Only Trump can clean this crapper out.
Thanks. I am sending a letter. Thanks for the address and info. I will do it now.
Yes, that’s gonna leave a mark!
I get e mail from Pee Wee Priebus, and I either omit it or send the reply “GO TRUMP!”
Pee Wee Priebus’ poltical preversions..(thanks to General Bat Guano)
So be it, Liz. Wickedness abounds and Priebus encourages it.
So does Cartel Cruz, obviously.
From post # 3, a twitter comment:
https://twitter.com/kimjgoodwin/status/718198390006423552
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Earwitness to Priebus saying ‘use the Diebold machines to keep Trump under 50% in NY’
Thanks, Wildhighlander57.
.
oughta read
NO TRUMP NO ____ <-— fill in your GOP senator
Rinse, lather, repeat for all the other big name GOP’ers in your locale.
We've elected over a thousand new Republicans in the last eight years... And they haven't done squat except to learn how to fit into DC and give 'speeches' for cash...
“I would add that the base should tell the vermin at the RNC, screw with Trump’s supporters and nomination and the base’s pledge is no donations, no volunteers; NADA nothing ever again, we’re changing to Independent, case closed! Then RNC can go pound sand.”
The RNC is just fine with losing this election. We have to tell them that we will vote out every Establishment Republican in office. Every one of them!
All the way down to dog catcher!
Amen, Brother!
It is easy - merely do not vote for them when they are up for reelection.
Yep. But I’m for a public movement “Vote The Incumbent Scum Out”
We have to get someone besides a Dem to run against them. The problem is still DC and cash for votes.
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