Posted on 04/07/2016 5:11:02 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Donald Trump holds a seven-point lead over Ted Cruz in a new California Field Poll, but his support in Southern California is a mixed bag - as the Republican frontrunner faces a large deficit in Los Angeles County while drawing broad support in surrounding Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties.
The Field Research Corporation poll released Thursday shows Trump holding 39 percent of the support among Republicans identified as likely voters in the June 7 primary, while the Texas senator has the backing of 32 percent. Ohio Gov. John Kasich trailed both with 18 percent, while 11 percent remained undecided.
One thing the real estate mogul has going is that much of his support is coming from people who previously backed former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in the state’s recall of Gov. Gray Davis in 2003.
Schwarzenegger, who is backing Kasich, ran as a political outsider on a crowded ballot in 2003, when anger at Davis resulted in a recall election.
In the new poll, 54 percent of those likely Republican voters who backed Schwarzenegger now support Trump. Cruz had the backing of only 21 percent that supported the former governor and movie star.
Perhaps troubling for Trump — who canceled a speaking engagement Friday at his golf course in Rancho Palos Verdes to stump in New York — is that he trails Cruz by 11 points in the state’s most populous county, Los Angeles.
The poll was conducted between March 14 and April 4, and has a 3.2 percent margin of error. The questions were asked on the heels of what has been widely regarded as Trump’s worst week of the election cycle after his campaign manager was charged with battery against a reporter, and Trump said women who have abortions — if the procedure were made illegal — should be punished.
Still, Mark Vafiades, chairman of the Los Angeles County Republican Party, said the polling is too far ahead of the primary to reveal much.
“It seems like Trump had a rough week, and I know people say you either love Trump or hate him, and you either love Cruz or hate him, but that’s not true,” Vafiades said. “People can go back and forth between the two.”
In surrounding counties — including San Bernardino, Riverside and Orange — Trump has his widest lead: 45 percent to 23 percent for Cruz.
Riverside County Republican Party Chairman Scott Mann said there haven’t been any straw polls conducted in his region, but he thinks the conservative Cruz plays well with the constituency there. But he said because California isn’t a winner-take-all state, “all three will get a handful of delegates.”
He said Cruz and Kasich have been organizing leadership teams in the county and he has heard from the Cruz campaign that they will open offices in Cochella Valley and Temecula in the next couple of weeks. He has not been in contact with the Trump campaign.
“Trump people have been doing corner rallies, but it’s not organized,” he said.
Orange County Republican Chairman Fred Whitaker said Cruz has been building a strong ground game since late last year in California and already has an office in Costa Mesa. He also said while he’s been in touch regularly with the Cruz and Kasich campaigns, he hasn’t heard anything from Trump.
“He’s a mass-media star running a mass-media campaign,” Whitaker said. He noted he didn’t find out about Trump’s now-cancelled Friday speech in Ranch Palos Verdes until a CNN reporter called to tell him about it.
The three candidates are vying for the Republican presidential nomination in Cleveland this summer and Trump leads with 743 delegates to 517 for Cruz. A candidates needs 1,237 delegates to win the nomination outright and avoid a contested or brokered convention.
If it goes to a brokered or contested convention, 52 percent of Republicans in the poll believe the nomination should be given to Trump as the delegate leader, while 36 percent say someone else should be chosen.
But Whitaker said it’s important for a candidate to have more than 50 percent of the delegates to unify around.
California is the big prize with 172 delegates at stake, but they are divvied up by congressional districts - three delegates per district with 10 at-large delegates. The presidential candidate who wins any of the state’s 53 congressional districts will win all three delegates. The 10 at-large delegates are awarded to the candidate who has the highest vote total statewide.
Whitaker said a lot of this in uncharted territory for California Republicans.
“It’s kind of refreshing,” he said. “We haven’t had a significant presidential primary here in a long time.”
“- three delegates per district with 10 at-large delegates.”
I want to know who the three delegates from Maxine Waters’ district will be. I doubt if there are ten Republicans in that district. There are many districts in California like that. Do the party bosses send carpetbaggers into those districts?
It’s not enough lead for Trump. He needs to be +10, but there is a problem with that. He’ll be courting controversy if he starts stumping in CA. Double trouble if he goes stupid on us again.
He should start Stumping in San Diego and Orange county. I recommend that all his stumps in California occur at Airports. Security would be tighter and there would be backlash if protesters block entrances and roadways to airports.
Wow, I can’t believe California is now nearly twice the size of New York.
Trump will KO Cruz in CA.
There are almost 15 congressional districts in LA county - only 5 or 6 in Orange County and Riverside County... In the LA county districts, you can win them with a few thousand votes, because there are so few GOP voters, but in Orange County and San Diego county, you will need 30-40k votes or more to win the district.
Yes, it’s a bizarro result... but it’s also kind of cool. Think about it. If you’re a Republican in Maxine Waters’ or Nancy Pelosi’s district, you’re used to your vote counting for diddly-squat. Now, suddenly you and your small band of GOP compatriots in the district are controlling 3 crucial delegates in this campaign. After decades of not mattering, you finally matter. Your loyalty to the GOP is rewarded in a not insignificant way.
It’s going to be a wild one in CA so it’s good that our vote will count. Hard to predict but here’s some history.
2000 Bush 52.2%, McCain 42.9% Bush all 162 delegates
2008 McCain 42.2% Romney 34.6% McCain 155 of 170 delegates
2012 Romney 79.5% Paul 10.4% Romney all 171 delegates
My prediction: Trump gets 140+ delegates.
PS: Ben Carson held a rally last year in Anaheim and drew 9000 plus.
From your lips to Gods ear.
I think he’s very vulnerable.
Vote Trump
Previous poll was an 8 point lead.
There are probably 10 million who've just stopped voting in CA over the past 2 decades because the states corrupt lawyers/politicians spit in their faces, habitually lied to them, and are looting the crap out of the people.
Most that are left in CA who are still capable of critical thought understand these AHs don't give a rip about anyone, and this includes the R's or Ds. Most are a bunch of rotten corrupt deceitful crooks. Most in CA figured out it's one big con job.
How many of those signify delegates won?
I take these poll results with several pounds of salt.
First, of course, because polls in general are off by quite a bit. This year in particular has been tough on pollsters.
However, a bigger factor that will in my opinion skew the results away from what this poll says, is that Trump will be coming off of several victories in the Northeast. He will have two things going for him: first, momentum. Second, he will be much closer to a majority of the delegates, and Cruz will have been mathematically eliminated from winning on the first ballot by then. Many undecided voters tend to vote with the person who has momentum or a chance to win, because they want to be part of the winning crowd.
Additionally, I believe that after the last couple of weeks and the loss in Wisconsin, Trump will start being more disciplined and more specific regarding policy. In short, he will start acting in a more presidential manner. This will also tend to sway many undecided voters, and probably some Kasich voters, to his side.
“In the new poll, 54 percent of those likely Republican voters who backed Schwarzenegger now support Trump.”
Dog returns to its own vomit (Proverbs).
Trump is an slightly more unhinged Schwarzenegger.
Fool me once, ok. I don’t see why these 52% are letting themselves be fooled twice.
I did not support Schwarzenegger. I knew he was no good. People here at FR (not even from CA) were fooled by Arnold then, just like Trump today, with a similar cult of personality.
I voted for McClintock if I recall correctly. I may have voted for a friend from junior high who was the Libertarian candidate, but don’t remember.
What are you talking about?
For decades, the people in CA have been economically gang banged and looted by the lawyers/politicians in CA and from their co-conspirators in the the District of Deceit.
Few in CA even trust the electoral process anymore because the lawyers/politicians have undermined and compromised that too.
I am saying Schwarzenegger was a disaster.
He was an opportunist who had nothing to do with making the recall election happen.
I actually think McClintock also was an opportunist, but I knew compared to Schwarzenegger, he was far preferable.
And I am saying Trump is Schwarzenegger II.
Schwarzenegger was a joke, like the rest. Everyone one of these lawyers/politicians in Sacramento have been a freaking disaster. Loser leadership at it’s best. CA got robbed and subverted in every direction. Right down to the electoral process which they’ve also compromised.
I am confident most in CA are in no mood for yet another lying lawyer/politician like Cruz.
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