Posted on 02/19/2016 5:59:54 PM PST by entropy12
According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump has a 77% chance of winning the South Carolina primary.
Our forecasts do not produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidates chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.
(Excerpt) Read more at projects.fivethirtyeight.com ...
Poor Roopy Poopy Murdoch and his bogus poll.
538 gave Trump a 69% chance in NH, so they are even more bullish about him in SC
Good memory!
I looked it up haha
To add, 538 mixes in endorsements in their prediction. On polling alone Trump is almost a shoo-in.
It is just a probability. Look at the bell curves. They overlap slightly. Which means Cruz or Rubio are not out of it.
According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump has a 66% chance of winning the Nevada caucuses on February 23rd.
I can’t see South Carolina going quirky at this late date, but ya never know.
Trump has had everything and almost everyone throwing trash at him, including the Jesuit, Liberation Theology follower Pope.
Of course, Trump himself hasn’t exactly endeared himself or helped his cause with some of his off-the-cuff statements, like the ones about former President Bush, when in fact, he could have found a better way to finish the war with loser Jeb.
Actually I could be a better politician than Trump! HaHa.
My problem is I do not have the Billions, and no rich donors wants to give me millions!
Trump has a tendency to talk too much too quick. His lack of experience in the political arena shows. But I am ready for somebody other than a career politician, and someone who is not in the pockets of rich donors.
It’s been damn wild, and hopefully things cool off into Nevada and Super Tuesday.
538 said Trump would easily win Iowa too. We know what became of that.
Iowa is a caucus and Cruz’s ground game was next level there. This is an open primary, and depending on the LV screen on the polls Trump is either going to run away with this thing or it’s going to be tight.
Caucus has low turn out compared to population of eligible voters. Never reliable. Primaries are more reliable with polls.
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