Posted on 01/26/2016 1:29:14 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
There are a number of polls out that have Donald Trump surging in Iowa at the last minute. I do believe Trump is probably ahead, but I am aware of several of the campaigns' internal polls and none of them have anything but Cruz and Trump clustered together very closely.
The problem with polling Iowa is that a caucus is not a primary. With a primary, voters go to a polling booth, click the name of the candidate who they support, and leave. With a caucus, often not even in the same location as where voters go to vote in primaries, there is an hour commitment, the voter must be in the room by seven o'clock in the evening, and they must show their support rather publicly.
People who show up for primaries may not know the caucus location, they may not realize they have to stay an hour, and they may think they can show up late. Likewise, we know historic turnout models for caucuses and many of the late polls with a huge Trump lead have turnout models that far exceed even the most historic high turnouts of caucuses past.
My friend Steve Deace, a Cruz supporter, has some very insightful data on caucuses and polling models.
"So now we have FOX as well as CNN producing polls this week that show 300,000 Iowans are voting in the Iowa Caucuses, and therefore Trump with a double-digit lead. Allow me to put those projected turnout numbers in perspective:
* That's about a 200% voter increase from the highest Iowa Caucus turnout ever back in 2008.
* The most voters we've had in a primary (which always has higher turnout) in Iowa this century is only 230,000. And our last U.S. Senate primary had only roughly 150,000 voters in 2014.
* There are actually 11,000 fewer registered Republicans in Iowa this January than in January 2015.
Ann Selzer has a very good track record in Iowa, catching both the Huckabee and Santorum trend lines. She's now caught the Cruz trend line. Pay attention if she releases another poll, but otherwise be cautious. Caucuses are more dependent on ground games than standard primaries. The prevailing consensus of reporters in Iowa is that Cruz, Carson, and Rubio have some of the very best ground game operations.
We have one week to go. We will see how all the data holds up in the face of Donald Trump's unorthodox campaign. If traditional fundamentals hold, he will not come in first. But if his unorthodox campaign that defies tradition puts him in first, we may see a paradigm shift in electoral politics like we have never seen before.
The danger for Trump is that, with so much late breaking polling showing a renewed and large lead coupled with Trump touting all this polling, expectations are suddenly being set very high for him, which might make him not coming in first very problematic for him.
Once again Erick the Red
Eeenie, meanie, miney, mo.
Which of the dupe’s will have to go?
If, if not, we’ll see, etc.
DUH.
I’m sick of speculation about the Iowa Caucus.
Their caucus cannot come soon enough.
I can't even walk into the living room without seeing a Davenport!
LOLOLOL. God bless you.
That’s the precise word both my Dad and Mom used for couch or sofa!
Haven’t heard that for DECADES.
Auuuuugh! Lol!
Erick “National Review’s AGAINST TRUMP coauthor” Erickson.
“My friend Steve Deace......” Is that anything like your “Good Friend Jeb Bush?”
A bloated, name dropping, no-talent opportunist. Go stuff another cheeseburger in that fat face and STFU.
Remember “Divan?”
“I do believe Trump is probably ahead” - Erik lowering expectations here. If Cruz doesn’t win Iowa his campaign is over. He put all his eggs in one basket.
I never heard that term used growing up. It was either davenport or couch.
'Ice box' is another term I used for a long time. I refer to it as a 'fridge' nowadays, but 'ice box' still sounds natural.
It will hurt him but it will not end him. No way Cruz is anything but all in at least until the SEC primaries. He has to survive the winnowing and when he does Trump will not be able maintain a plurality. Meanwhile Cruz will be piling up delegates at about the same rate as Trump. No way this is over in Iowa, no matter what the outcome there.
>> We have one week to go.
Pray, and stay in faith.
You do realize there are no Canadian delegates, right?
Too funny. When DMR showed Cruz ahead a month ago there was NEVER an article about “well, you now the polls can be wrong.” So disingenuous.
One of the great things about Trump’s victory in IA will be a major, major humiliation of the GOPe and National Review so-called conservatives. These guy are ALL on the gravy train and, unfortunately, it’s clear Cruz poses no threat to that train, which should be far more illuminating to Cruzers than any of Trump’s positions in previous years.
So, if Trump doesn’t win really, really big, he loses. A lot of preemptive spinning from a usual suspect.
All the GOOe shill like Eric the Red must be humiliated. Go Trump.
Trying to read the possible outcomes on the Iowa caucus is kind of like nailing Jell-O to the wall.
Whatever form it was supposed to be, it oozes and morphs into something altogether different, sometimes within minutes. And slides away anyway.
We do not know for sure who is going to show up. Once they show up, we don’t know how the discussion is going to change opinions of each individual caucus member. The first opinions expressed are not necessarily the final opinion and agreed-upon final verdict by the caucus.
And there are 99 separate caucus results.
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