Posted on 01/17/2016 5:03:40 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz have the greatest chances of winning the Iowa caucuses two weeks from Monday, new polling-based forecasts from FiveThirtyEight show.
Cruz has a 51 percent chance of winning Iowa when national and state polls as well as endorsements are taken into account. In that forecast, Donald Trump trails Cruz with a 29 percent chance of winning Feb. 1.
A look at just state polls shows a much closer race between Trump and Cruz, giving the business magnate a better chance of winning by 2 percentage points, 44 percent to Cruz's 42 percent.....
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
It comes down to who will attend the caucuses.
538’s projections are heavily influenced by endorsements. Currently Cruz is kicking butt in Iowa with endorsements from Steve King, Steve Deace, and influential evangelical preachers like Vander Plaats. These endorsements will really help his GOTV efforts on caucus night.
If Branstad actually endorses Trump and brings his machine behind the Don, Cruz’s edge is blunted and it will be VERY close.
As far as New Hampshire, as long as the GOPe have four dogs in that fight it’s Trump’s for the taking.
Maybe Cruz will surprise me but after the incoming he’s taking I don’t see it. Trump all the way.
Trump teases “big announcement” for Tuesday. Endorsement from Gov. Terry Branstad
I predict Trump wins IA with 38 percent, Cruz comes in with 34 percent.
Knowing Trump this could be a big nothing... or just a fun guest like Palin saying hello to everyone...
If it’s Branstad that would be huge. If Branstad endorses Trump I see Bevin next, and Christie after he dumps out after New Hampshire. Trump and Governors makes sense to me... I don’t see him winning many endorsements from Washington types.
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Cruz is soaring after his home run comment in the debate.
Money, money, money...
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Cruz could win outright in Iowa.
If he does, Trump will do a parabolic into the ground.
He’s going to b headed downtown in the polls now, too unlikeable.
A RINO endorsing a Democrat over a conservative. It’s happened before.
538 is run by that homo-lib Nate Silver. He’s been beating the anti-Trump drums for a while. One of the early “He can never win” crowd.
I think Trump takes Iowa, crushes the field in NH...and just rolls through.
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