Posted on 12/14/2015 8:40:05 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
The trend was first hinted at by a methodologically suspect survey released last week by Monmouth University. But now it's been established by the "gold standard" of Iowa polls, Ann Selzer's survey for the Des Moines Register and Bloomberg: Ted Cruz has passed Donald Trump like he is standing still (which he actually is), and is registering impressive favorability and second-choice numbers as well. Too bad for him, voting is still a month and a half away!
Selzer shows Cruz leaping an unprecedented (for her Iowa caucus polls) 21 points, from 10 percent to 31 percent, since her last survey in October. Donald Trump actually gained a couple of points to run second with 21 percent. Ben Carson lost over half his support, dropping from 28 percent (and first place) in October to 13 percent now. One way of looking at the dynamics in Iowa is simply that much of Carson's conservative Evangelical backing has migrated to Cruz (the Texan now has 45 percent among Evangelical/"born again" Christians, who also currently make up half of likely caucusgoers). Marco Rubio is holding steady in fourth place at 10 percent. The other 23 percent is scattered; for his millions in super-pac ad spending, Jeb Bush has climbed from 5 percent in October to 6 percent in December, but his favorability ratio has deteriorated to a dismal 39/54.
At the same time, Cruz seems to have become broadly popular among Iowa Republicans. His favorability ratio (73/19) is now a bit better than that of longtime favorability kings Carson (72/22) and Rubio (70/21). Cruz also leads the field in second-choice preferences at 20 percent. Everything's looking up for the Joe McCarthy look-alike...
(Excerpt) Read more at nymag.com ...
Looky here.
Simply put Cruz is picking up Carson’s lost support. Evangelical factor in Iowa. Once the slew of polls tomorrow, I will publish my update here. PPP in Iowa, and Morning Consult national polls in the mix as well as probably others. PPP will probably be MOE Trump/Cruz like Fox and Quinnipiac. Morning Consult will probably be a Trump around 40, with Cruz at high teens in 2nd.
When’s the national primary?
Ouch !
lmao
Does Iowa ever pick the eventual winner of the primaries or is winning Iowa the “kiss of death” for a political candidate?
Trump’s paranoia about others is his Achilles heel. Even Rush has asked why Trump feels he needs to attack Cruz. If Cruz wanted to really destroy Trump all he or others for that matter is to remind voters Trump is NYCer. Kiss of death.
? Cruz/Trump even in IA, Trump ahead NH, SC. What is your question?
Iowa caucus winners.
1976: Gerald Ford (45%)
1980: George H. W. Bush (32%),
1984: Ronald Reagan (unopposed)
1988: Bob Dole (37%),
1992: George H. W. Bush (unopposed)
1996: Bob Dole (26%),
2000: George W. Bush (41%),
2004: George W. Bush (unopposed)
2008: Mike Huckabee (34%),
2012: Rick Santorum (25%), Mitt Romney (25%),
Iowa got 2000 right with GWB, again in 2004 when he was unopposed and famously wrong in 2008 and 2012. Iowa was also wrong in 1980 and 1988.
So basically in contested primaries without an incumbent they are 1 out of the last 5.
Why is New York Magazine more interested in promoting a Cruz surge than doing a story on their soul mate, Bernie Sanders? Why are all liberal media now pushing a Cruz surge?
Answer: To take out the guy they really fear. Cruz will be easy to take care of later. Right now they can’t figure out how to get rid of the BULLDOZER.
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