Posted on 10/13/2015 5:27:09 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Veteran pollster John Zogby is continuing to stick to his longstanding prediction that Republican front-runner Donald Trump's run for president will not last.
"I'm in a margin-of-error business, so plus or minus a couple of weeks … I do think he'll fizzle out, I really do," Zogby, senior analyst at Zogby Analytics, tells "Newsmax Prime" with J.D. Hayworth on Newsmax TV.
"He's starting to, he's peaked a little bit and I think his numbers are coming down … he'll fizzle out shortly."
Zogby said he is not surprised that Trump supporters say if the billionaire developer ends up dropping out, they'll embrace Dr. Ben Carson, the retired pediatric neurosurgeon who is in second place.
"This is the period of the outsider and [there are] two completely different personas here, but Ben Carson at least for now is providing an alternative persona and a lot of red meat for conservatives in the race," he said....
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
looking at the polling from 2012, Romney also “peaked” about this time in the primary at around 25% then over the next two months drifted down to 20%.
Funny, that I dont remember all the press declaring Romney’s end on a daily basis during that period.
On this date is 2012 Romney was polling 22%.
No but I can name candidates about whom more significant groups of people hold negative views. Trump seems to be one of them. We will see as others drop out.
Carson is the one who will fade, his popularity never made any sense.
The real question is ... where will Carson’s people go when he fades? If even a few of them go to Trump, he would be unstoppable.
Same here, by the time Indiana votes, which is May, it’s over. Personally, I think that there aught to be just 1 voting day for the primary for the entire country. Then it’s over and done and we can get down to brass tacts and start getting a game plan. All the back stabbing and ads against each other during the primary, just give fuel to the Democrats.
Who is going to create more jobs? Trump or Carson? Carson have a tax plan? Who is going to better control immigration?
I really don’t know why they keep pushing Carson.
The rest of the field pales in comparison to Trump. Imagine how deflated everyone would be without Trump.
Trump will be there to the end. He is growing in stature and he is adapting to the process. They simply do not know how to pigeon hole the guy.
Here's a story that I think we should all start and pass around, maybe shake them up...find out who is most popular writer, tv personality on talking heads and add their names:
Breaking News: Chris Wallace just announced that he can no longer do the news at Fox. It has been discovered that he has to quit because the ratings he were shown in a meeting yesterday were far below what the Fox Company expects of their employees. Chris Wallace has been with Fox for ........years. Company said it was a hard decision they had to make because at one point of his employment with them, he ratings were very high, but with the increased pressure of other individuals, he fell behind in the lack luster of his employment...
Now if we take someone, writer, talking head and do this, it is no different than them doing it to Trump, Bush, Rubio, Carson or anyone else, they do it all the time and we have proof of it....lets do it and throw the fear of God into them for a change....
The fact is, one outlier poll from IBD on 9/26 is distorting Trumps polling average. That poll had Trump at 17% while every other poll on both sides of it has Trump at mid to high 20’s.
Take that poll out and Trump Chart jumps up dramatically.
That same outlier poll also is distorting Carsons support, because it was the one that showed Carson at 24%, 11 points higher than another poll conducted at the same time which is in line with all the other polls from that time period.
Remove that one outlier poll and Carsons numbers drop to the mid teens and Trumps jump to the high 20’s.
Personally, I think that there aught to be just 1 voting day for the
primary for the entire country.
***************
Maybe not a bad idea but how do you get 50 states, political parties, etc all on one page for
a single day election? These primaries aren’t run/controlled by the Federal Gov’t but by
state parties/gov’t. The process as it is today has pros and cons for sure.
I guess, I missed that one.
I thought it was John McCain that threw that election.
He and Lutz must be using the same poll, and we know how horrible pollsters can be at predictions, worse than economists.
Lots of whistling past the graveyard going on.
Trump is not going anywhere.
Do you really think that Zogby is objectively reporting?
Is noon on January 20, 2017 “soon”?
No. I doubt Trump will be fizzling out anytime soon. But I just pointed out that if Zogby were correct then replacing Trump with the likes of Carson or Fiorina is not cause for hope.
Someone should ask Mr. Zogby if the Dodgers at the Mets (8:07 p.m. Eastern) will draw more viewers than the Hillary vs Light Colonel Sanders (8:30 p.m. Eastern).
I will be watching the ball game not the insane game.
The polling only shows the sentiments of registered party members likely to vote in the primary. However, the crowds are made up of all potential voters across party lines.
I think we may see a case where polling under-reports Trump's general election appeal. Still, like Lieberman in Connecticut, he has to make it past his party primary first.
-PJ
How many of you were in on the Jeb operative plant at the No Labels rally? Is this where you get your small confidence from, Zog-puke?
Its become apparent that the media is colluding with a “No Free Publicity for Trump” strategy. And then they write opinion pieces about how little we’re hearing about him in the news.
But methinks he’ll get a lot of coverage at the next debate, and he won’t go quietly into the night.
Think about how absurd the media can be - they are still yearning for Biden to jump into the race, since in reality it hasn’t really started...yet its already time for Trump to fizzle out? They are covering each party’s race as if they are on two different time tables.
Maybe Trump will fizzle out in his first Term as President—or maybe his second? Zogby and Megyn Kelly can hope? Will Miss Megyn interview Trump in his first 100 days in the White House?
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