Posted on 10/09/2015 11:40:30 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
It’s time again for our weekly 2016 election Slack chat, in which FiveThirtyEight’s political team debates the latest developments. As always, the transcript below has been lightly edited.
micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): So, is Jeb! toast? There’s been a spate of articles recently suggesting he should be panicking right now. And he’s at a low ebb in national polls:
hjenten (Harry Enten, senior political writer): Why should he panic? The leader in the polls is Donald Trump (though trends indicate that he may not be for much longer). A man who basically spent no money on his campaign. A man whose favorable ratings are dropping. Second is Ben Carson and third is Carly Fiorina — neither have ever held elected office. Bush has the most money, the most endorsements … so NO, I wouldn’t panic.
micah: I mean, he’s leading in endorsements, but only a small share of GOP bigwigs have endorsed anyone — those don’t mean much yet, right?
natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): Bush shouldn’t panic, but he should worry. Most of those endorsements came early in the race. He hasn’t received any in the past couple weeks, whereas Marco Rubio has received three. That’s not that many — but at the very least we can say the establishment is not rallying around Bush....
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Whobio?
Looks like Bushyboi has flat lined.
BEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE...
Still relying on IBD and CFG push polls to proclaim Trumps demise. Gravis poll today in NH, I guess does not count?
Are you referring to me or the source?
I also agree that Trump has topped and for him that could be the kiss of death. Instead of touting his momentum, his supporters are now telling us that he is maintaining. As a creature of the media, Donald Trump must convince the world of his momentum and, actually, his inevitability or his negatives, which pile up daily, will destroy him.
Fiorina is an effective campaigner with a flawed or at least vulnerable biography and Carson has a splendid biography but is a relatively ineffective campaigner. Therefore, I expect to see these two gradually diminish. So the real threat to conservatives are Marco Rubio and Donald Trump. Rubio is dangerous because of his campaign skills, his biography, his matinee idol good looks and by virtue of the fact that most Republicans really don't know how they were betrayed by his defection to the gang of eight. Donald Trump has performed a great service in defining the issues of this campaign but he becomes a negative force the closer he gets to actually being nominated. Should he get elected, we will be appalled to find out exactly how conservative Donald Trump is not.
That leaves us where we should have begun, with Ted Cruz, the only conservative in this race with the chance to win.
His IQ isn’t high enough to realize nobody likes him.
I dunno bout “freaking out”, but I bet he’s “flipando”.
No of course not!
But he should think seriously about withdrawing as it is obvious that most Republicans will never vote for him. Will he take the hint, not likely, he is one of the GOPe chosen.
One of many that should not be running but they keep trying to pull the wool over our eyes. It has worked for so many times that they just assume that it will continue to work.
[natesilver: I’d say team BRK (Bush-Rubio-Kasich) collectively have a 70-75 percent chance or so. ]
These are clue;ess lefties. The ship has sailed on (Bush-Rubio-Kasich) and they just can’t see it. They have no idea what the level of GOPe hate is right now.
Trump has topped?! Nope. Not even close.
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Rasmussen: Trump’s Chances for Nomination Hold Steady
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3346986/posts
“The latest Rasmussen Reports Trump Change national telephone survey finds that 58% of Likely Republican Voters believe “The Donald” is likely to end up as their party’s presidential nominee in 2016,..”
The FDU poll has Cruz at 5%.
http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2015/10/10/fdu-national-poll-trump-leads-with-26-carson-22/
Last night we had a Reagan dinner fundraiser here in the Keys.
One of the auction items was a green baseball cap from the Trump campaign that read “Make America great again”.
The bidding started at $100. The winner paid $500 for a ten dollar cap. Every time Trumps name came up the audience cheered wildly1 He’s hardly through.
WOW!! The big wow is that there are Republicans in the KEYS!!
In the Keys there are about 50 k voters. 18k Republicans,17k dems and the rest NPS’s the fastest growing segment.
WOW...more Republicans than Democrats....unbelievable!
The source - Which as usual in sources like this is touting the faux decline of Trump
I lived in Marathon for about a year and a half....nice drinking town with a fishing problem!
Yeah for sure, that’s where we had the event at the faro blanco which is now the Hyatt in Marathon.Quite a place now.
Yes he should.
awesome! gotta remember that one as i have a second home in a small coastal town with EXACTLY the same problem. wonder if that holds pretty much nation wide? bet so.
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