Posted on 06/26/2015 10:32:53 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
A flurry of new national polls this week (from NBC/Wall Street Journal, Fox News and YouGov/Economist), as well as new surveys in Iowa and New Hampshire have political junkies buzzing, many focusing on a modest increase of support on some of these polls for businessman Donald Trump. With more than six months before the first primaries and over a year until the party conventions, it's a good time to revisit reasons why such minor shifts are less meaningful than they may appear.
National polls sample primary voters too broadly - National media polls ask their horserace questions on the Republican and Democratic nomination contests of very broad swaths of potential voters. Most report results among all registered voters who identify or lean to each party, amounting to roughly half of their samples of all U.S. adults.
Yet the actual turnout in the various primaries and caucuses is much lower. In 2008, the combined Democratic and Republican turnouts in all primary and caucus contests nationwide was roughly a quarter of the adult population. It fell to just over 10 percent in 2012 thanks to a non-competitive Democratic contest, according to voter turnout statistics maintained by University of Florida Prof. Michael McDonald....
(Excerpt) Read more at huffingtonpost.com ...
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