Posted on 05/18/2015 4:49:38 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
There are so many Republicans running for president, or thinking about running for president, that the Republican National Committee is having a hard time keeping track of them all. An official GOP online straw poll lists 36 potential candidates (and as Politico noted, that list actually missed at least two former governors who have said they're mulling White House bids).
Regardless of the final tally, it's becoming increasingly clear that debate planners will need to come up with creative ways to fit so many podiums on the stage when the candidates first face off in August.
But what makes this election so interesting isn't just the sheer number of candidates. It's that it could remain undecided until the GOP's national convention in the summer of 2016. With so many candidates splitting the vote, it's quite possible that no candidate gets a majority of delegates by the end of the primary season.
Now, it's true that political junkies like me hope for a brokered convention every four years — one where backroom deals ultimately decide the eventual nominee. (Read more about brokered conventions here.) Each time, our dreams are ultimately foiled by one candidate who gains momentum through the primary season, causing the others to drop out.
But this year may be different for three unique reasons:
1. Look at the early polls. No Republican candidate can break even 20 percent support on a consistent basis in national surveys. In fact, the latest Real Clear Politics average finds just three possible candidates who register more than 10 percent. There's really no frontrunner at all.
2. A winning coalition isn't easy to put together. There are already several candidates who appeal mainly to evangelical Christians, a bunch who are attractive to national security hawks, and a handful who attract the Wall Street establishment crowd. There's even a libertarian or two in the mix. With so many candidates on the menu, primary voters won't necessarily have to pick the lesser of the evils. They'll find a candidate who speaks to the issues they most care about.
3. Follow the money. Super PACs, which have become a pre-requisite for running for president this year, can raise unlimited sums from large donors. While they cannot legally coordinate their actions with the official campaigns, their war chests can ensure a candidate can stay in the race much longer than ever before. There's little need to drop out if you have a billionaire or two committed to influencing the race with your candidacy.
Put this together and it's very possible that no candidate will win two of the first four early contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. If that happens, it's impossible to predict what comes next.
RNC rules require states that hold nominating contests before March 15 to award delegates proportionally, meaning that the winner-take-all states that might decide the nomination come later in the process. Favorite-son candidates in delegate-rich states like Florida (Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio) or Texas (Rick Perry and Ted Cruz) could further splinter the delegate counts.
The odds probably still favor the Republican nomination fight coming down to just a couple candidates. But at this point, it's impossible to predict when so many candidates have a plausible path to the nomination.
In fact, a chaotic primary season – with more than a dozen candidates with plenty of money to spend — makes the most improbable outcome much more possible.
Prediction:
Sen. Cruz will be the frontrunner,
and the GaveObamaPower (party), will still
be dedicated to ObamaCARE/RomneyCARE and
will nominate Bishop RomneyCARE 6.0
Interesting story.
Reminds me of the propaganda released in the big British dailies that supported “Conservative” David Cameron before the May 7th election warning about a hung parliament.
It scared people into not wanting to fight for smaller parties like the Lib Dems or UKIP and putting their eggs in the Conservative Party basket.
Is this part of the strategy to split conservative votes with all these candidates coming out now so Jeb wins the early contests, then they sell us on the idea that we don’t want to keep fighting and divide the Republican Party?
All a scare tactic so the establishment gets Jeb, or whoever their backup is.
Who votes for favorite sons anymore? All national politics is, well, national: you vote for the person you think is best for the job, regardless of where s/he comes from.
Way, way too early...
Who do you intend to vote for in the primary?
I tend to think you have an agenda against Cruz, and seek to minimize support for him.
Too bad for you that so many of us are supporting Cruz with real money for the primary.
I have an agenda. I intend to vote for a conservative, not the GOP-E pick this election.
/johnny
Since South Carolina is an early state Lindsey Graham hopes to keep delegates away from conservatives.
Rick Perry is clearly designed to keep Cruz from winning Texas delegates.
Bobby Jindal would serve a similar function in Louisiana.
Think of the southern states Santorum did well in back in 2012, not to mention Huckabee.
Huckabee could keep Cruz from winning the primary in Arkansas at least.
Then they all hold onto delegates and throw support to Jeb later on down the road.
THE GOP ESTABLISHMENT WILL STOP AT NOTHING TO MAKE JEB BUSH THE WINNER OF THIS PROCESS.
The Party bosses stopped Reagan with a brokered convention in ‘76.
They may need one to stop a conservative in 2016 too.
Not true...
I think Cruz is the best of these candidates and I sent him something and will donate to him on a regular and increasing basis as the caucuses-primaries approach.
What I describe in my posts is the strategy of the GOP Establishment to defeat Cruz.
1. Fear of a brokered convention
2. Use of numerous splitter candidates to divide support
3. Use of numerous candidates in debates to wash out a head on Cruz-Bush confrontation that Cruz would win hands down
I believe all these repubs are piling on because the GOPe is trying to find somebody to take out Cruz.
Fortunately, it’s not working.
His latest standing “O” came in GA.
And a brokered convention gives us: Jeb.
Ha! Pretty well done.
But they’ll pair Rubio with a ‘moderate’ woman.
or whoever their backup is.
Rubio is the backup if they can’t jam Jebster down our throats.
The RNC must produce an amnesty candidate for The Cheap Labor Express.
Well .. if you’re for “freedom” .. you’re backing the wrong people.
Too funny ..!!!!!
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