Skip to comments.Obama's Failure With Whites, Independents Will Sink Him
Posted on 11/06/2012 8:46:29 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
The time has come to make a prediction about the 2012 election, and Im not going to shirk the task. Ive spent the past few weeks walking you through the thought process Ive had about the decisions made by both campaigns, the missteps and missed opportunities on both sides, and the central question seems to me to be this: in the long term, demographic trend lines indicate that President Obamas base is larger, more diverse, and allows for more paths to victory. But elections arent in the long term, theyre snapshots, as the White House is fond of saying every first Friday of the month, a moment in time when Americans assess the candidates and make a choice. And for all the long term factors which favor Obamas approach to politics, in this election I expect the American people to choose to take a different path for the next four years.
You could go blind looking over the polling data in this election and attempting to analyze the internal information and the trendlines of key groups. Dan McLaughlin's article does a good job of summing up the limitations of polling, and the divergence of state and national polls, which was clearly on front and center display in this cycle. Some allege bias behind this, but I see more a lack of information, even about something as simple as what percentage of cell phone voters you ought to include in your assessments. But a few points have stood out to me as remarkable for their consistency over the past month, and for how little the Obama campaign has done to disrupt them. And these points all lean toward a Romney victory...
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
call it Revenge of the Bitter Clingers...
I’m watching Fox News and I’m worried. Sounds like Ohio is going for 0. I’m turning off the TV and signing off FR for a while, at least. I never have a drink before 5 pm and I think I may need one to deal with the results.
I was listening to Brian Susseman Radio show just now, One RNC guys was saying, according to Mitt internals, it is more close to Dick Morris prediction.
The polls are open until 7:30....turn off the TV...
The slow ones find out that Obama’s free lunch plan isn’t free after all and socialism never works.
Obama won because to many people wanting a hand out not a hane up.
Anybody know how its going for fake-a-hontas in MA?
I haven’t seen a “post your voting in MA” thread yet.
Wow! Seriously? MANDATE!! Let’s hope we take over the Senate.
I’ve been saying this since before the primaries were over, this thing ISN’T GOING TO BE CLOSE! Its dillusional to think this was going to be a squeaker, I don’t give a damn what the polls say.
Now GOTV as though it was neck and neck, but Obama never had a prayer this cycle... the very idea this thing is neck and neck is laughable.
Romney will carry Ohio, and do so by 4 points or so if not more, he’ll win IA, IN, and will take 2 out of 3 at least of WI, PA and MI.
FL,NC,VA and CO will all go Romney as well.
This isn’t going to be close folks, never was.
GOTV!! Fight like its 50-50 but the very idea this is a close race is daydream believing by the left and their MSM allies.
Obama will be 42-43%.. Sandy and its fallout might get him a point or 2 above that.. but the idea this is some neck and neck horserace is utterly ignorant.
Some polls (Michigan) is open until 8 pm.
You’re one of those really helpful Freepers who have been keeping me sane these past few weeks.
I TOTALLY AGREE.
I believe he will do all that, AND, I have been predicting strongly a race nobody believes, and nobody is talking about, but I am strongly confident that Romney will take IL, everybody thinks I am crazy, but I am standing by it, I even have money on it.
I just don’t get all the hand wringing, never have.
Its been obvious since january the electorate has given up on Obama... all they needed to know is that the option they had to replace him with wasn’t a bigger threat.
With the selection of Romney this was not going to be possible.
Obama spent 100’s of Millions of dollars trying to convince americans Romney was the Anti-Christ... and all it took was 90 minutes (actually about 15 minutes) for those americans to see Romney (when seeing him unfiltered and unedited) was indeed a reasonable option... and that was it.. election was over.
Since then Obama has not had momentum 1 single day, not one news cycle.. Big Bird, Binders and Bayonettes?? Really, do you really thin ANYONE not already in the tank for the guy was going to be swayed by such nonsense?
Think people think.. stop living by the polls... stop buying into the nonsense... look at the fundamental realities.
Economy has been in the toilet for 4 years, and NOTHING this bozo has done has helped. A few days before the election in Ohio and he can’t even get 20k people to show up for him with Bruce Springsteen giving a free concert!!! in a town of 300k+ Come on Folks! Control your emotions and think!
He’s getting crowds on the day before election day of well under 10k!!! Meanwhile Romney has been having to turn away supporters at events for weeks!
Everything indicates that Republican turnout will swamp 2010 numbers, Even serious Dem pundits aren’t arguing the he’ll win the popular vote, but are clinging to the he’ll win the EC.. which is NONSENSE.
Obama has been pandering to his BASE!!! The week of the election and he’s PANDERING TO HIS BASE!! Do you think that’s going to get you a win??? Seriously. STOP IT!
Romney buys 5 Million bucks of ads in PA which has been in play the entire time, but ignored, and Obama is out of money to even respond and has to go to BofA to borrow money to buy 650k worth of ads to attempt to counter it!!
Does any of this come across as a “close” election to you? Seriously.. Does it???
All year we’ve heard Romney can’t win without OH.. when in fact that’s nonsense.. its OBAMA who has no path left if he loses OH! The very idea that the midwest/rustbelt was going to be a firewall for a guy who’s insulted and attacked the church and spit on working blue class voters for 4 years was nonsense! You don’t win the rustbelt without the white working class voters! At least not states like OH, IN, IA and WI!!! You can pull off the states with the supercities without them, but only if you completely swamp the vote with MI, Philly and CHI... but otherwise forget it! And frankly even in 2008 Obama carried these voters in those states.. he’s losing huge portions of them this time around!
The idea he’s going to keep it close and pull out the EC is desperation, not reality.
Go, look at the pictures of the rallys this past week.. who’s got the crowds and who’s addressing empty seats??? Who’s pandering to their base being petty and negative, and who’s offering a positive broad message?? Who’s acting desperate, and who’s acting confident? Stop letting spin from the MSM or DU or your uncle roofus affect you.
Momentum is EVERYTHING in any competition, forget the poll numbers, think, think! Can you think of 1 day since the night of the first debate (and even before that) That Obama was carrying momentum? IN message? IN crowds? In news topics? in ANYTHING???? I know I sure can’t.
You guys are letting poll numbers affect what you are feeling and falling prey to propoganda!! STOP IT!!
Romney takes the stage at 11PM on a monday night to an overflow crowd of 10k+ in NH last night! Obama in OH has Jay-Z and Springsteen and can’t even get 20k to show up the night before an election!
STOP STOP STOP!!! FIGHT HARD!! Don’t get complacent, but stop buying into numbers and statistical analysis and trust what you see!
I don’t know about IL.. but I wouldn’t say its impossible.. IL will come down to Chicago (like most of the supercity rust belt states) IL being the toughest becaust its supercity is just so rediculously overrepresented.. Chicago is something like 22-25% of the states population.
HOWEVER if Chicago dems are dejected it is possible... but a long shot.
I think MN is more likely to be a suprise swing than IL, but if IL falls, then certainly every other rust belt state including MN will fall. If Obama can’t hold IL he won’t hold anything in the rust belt.
Just a few more hours and we know for sure.
I have to admit, I do think it’s garbage that all of the polling is weighted so disproportionate. Once you and Ravi and LS etc. pointed it out for me I worried a lot less.
Now I’m making calls to help GOTV and make PA a Red State for the first time in my life!
Once word was out that 53% of recent college graduates (since the last year of "W""s second term in fact) were UNEMPLOYED, there was no way the clown from Chicago could win ~ Michelle Bachmann's husband could have won this one.
Whites & independents?
False premise - He’s failed EVERYBODY (not counting the cpusa)!
Why read further?
Zero has been a categorical failure, intrinsic failure, colossal failure.
And, he’s been a colossal douche.
The reason he’s dropping the “white” and “independent” vote (apparently the “white” vote is separate?) is that he’s been a racist since he was groomed for public life by his coreligionists in the various sponsoring foreign states.
If all we did was show up with a few thousand more votes than 2010 that would be almost total capitulation to the Democrats.
Presidential years draw more voters than mid-term years.
I agree with absolutely everything you wrote. The only problem is the news media paints precisely the opposite picture and use these phony polls with D+12 advantages to “prove” their case.
I live in LA. I am on the freeways every day. And here is what I can report: You wouldn’t even know there was a presidential election going on around here. Barely a car has a bumper sticker on it. Very FEW yard signs anywhere around. Contrast this to four years ago, there was Obamamania all over the place. Every other car had an Obama sticker on it. Tons of yard signs all over the place. Busy Obama phonebanks working well into the evening. This year: NOTHING ZILCH NADA. Zero enthusiam for Obama. ZERO!!!!!!
Not predicting that Obama will lose here in CA. But this prediction I can make without any hesitation: Obama will NOT carry CA by 24 points like he did four years ago. I think Obama will be lucky to carry the state by 10%. There are NO signs of youthful Obama supporters this year, even in the Hispanic neighborhoods you see no signs of Obama support. What few yard signs that are up are for local candidates.
I am talking percentage of the vote, not raw turnout number.
overall turnout for this election will be R +3/4.
As opposed to D+7 and D+3 in 2008 and 2010 respectively if memory served.
In OH, they close at 7:30. I’ll be working as an observer for the R/R campaign in a bit—I’ll be checking off people’s names as they come in and it will be sent to Boston via an app on my phone. I’m also supposed to watch for voting irregularities and I can press a button for legal advice if I need it. Probably won’t happen at my precinct (I know one of the workers there fairly well), but it’s nice to know they are on the case at R/R headquarters. I told them I was coming this afternoon to do this, and they said they would have someone to swear me in (Ohio law). They also told me where I could observe and where the rolls would be posted later today at 4 pm.
So where do you get Dem+7?
Not sure where you are getting D+14 unless you are stuck on a single state or something. The National turnout delta in 2008 was D+7 and in 2010 it was D+3... national turnout delta this election will be R+3/4
let’s see your computation. are you using total vote as the base, or are you comparing Democrat to Republican votes?
No, this isn’t which party GOT a vote, the D+7 and D+3 for 2008 and 2010 are the delta between voters registered to each party who showed up, it has nothing to do with HOW they voted.
IE Registered Democrats who voted represented 39% of hte people who voted, and Registered Remplicans represented 32% of the people who showed up to vote, is a D+7.
In 2008 the turnout was D+7, in 2010 it was D+3, this year I fully expect R+3-4
Has nothing to do with final vote total, or who voted for who.
And by refusing to stop illegal immigration and limit legal immigration, GOP leaders have betrayed their party and conservatism. Most children born this year will be minority. You do the math.
You mean hatin’ whitey doesn’t sell well to whitey and normal people of color? Oh noez!