Posted on 12/27/2010 4:11:15 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
I usually don’t write about single-state 2012 polls, but hoo boy. He was at 52 percent in March, more than 30 points ahead of Huckabee, and now? 21 percent, two points behind Huck. What happened? PPP’s theory:
Why has Romney fallen so far? I think part of the reason he polled so well earlier in the year is that he was the anti-Palin. Palin’s favorability numbers with GOP voters in Florida are a good deal worse than they are most places and Romney did well in those earlier surveys as one of the few named alternatives to her. As more response options were provided in later polls the anti-Palin sentiment was diffused across several candidates and Romney’s mile wide but inch deep support declined further and further and further to where it is now.
Romney’s chances at the Republican nomination really might be contingent on a small pool of candidates running- the more ‘reasonable’ folks there are in the mix the worse Romney does because he doesn’t have a real solid base of support. If there are 5 ‘competent’ folks who have been Governors or Senators running it may be hard for any of them to break out as a strong alternative to Palin should she make the race.
An important caveat: The March poll was based on a hypothetical three-way race. In July they re-polled it with Gingrich in the mix and Mitt’s numbers collapsed from 52 percent to 31, with Newt picking up 23 percent. Disastrous, right? Maybe not: The takeaway from these numbers, I think, is that Florida’s ripe for the picking by whichever centrist candidate is left standing after the Iowa/New Hampshire/Nevada/South Carolina gauntlet.
Huckabee and Palin, the two most prominent social cons in the race, have been stuck below 40 percent combined since PPP started polling the state earlier this year. If Romney manages to win New Hampshire and Nevada, say, that should clear out the rest of the centrist/managerial candidates like Gingrich by the time Florida rolls around and leave him as the only alternative to whichever social conservative emerges from Iowa and South Carolina. This is Romney’s great weakness but potentially also his great strength — as Frum noted last month, his support derives chiefly from him being a bland but acceptable alternative to more vibrant candidates whom many primary voters dislike. (E.g., Romney would, I expect, handily win a Hot Air primary head to head against Huckabee on the Anyone But Huck platform.)
By the time he gets to Florida, the die will already have been cast. If he wins the Generic Competent Electable Guy mini-primary early on between him, Newt, Pawlenty, Daniels, and Thune, he’s well positioned to win Florida notwithstanding his polling right now. Which, of course, explains why Palin supporters are hoping for a centrist stalking horse to emerge and peel votes away from Romney.
Exit question: What happens if neither Palin nor Huckabee nor Pence runs? Bill Kristol and Peggy Noonan both speculated yesterday that she’ll sit this one out; Pence is reportedly more interested in running for governor, and rumors have been swirling for a week that Huck is keen on sticking with TV. Would Gingrich become the social con choice in that case? Given how much support he bleeds from Romney as a “managerial” alternative, he’d be mighty formidable with the base behind him too.
More of the same crap PING!
Mike Huckabee: 23%
Mitt Romney: 21%
Newt Gingrich: 18%
Sarah Palin: 13%
Ron Paul: 8%
Tim Pawlenty: 4%
Mitch Daniels: 2%
John Thune: 1%
“Will have no RINO.”
To know Romney is to loath him.Same for Newt too.
“Pence is in my opinion the best in the field, though I am not entirely satisfied with him as the nominee, either.”
What are some of his drawbacks?
Nobody wants Romney except his servants.
You must be living in Iceland.
Oprah doesn’t have the gravitas to be able to take on Palin.
Reading the left wing Allahpundit stuff is almost as bad as reading huffpo or du. I don’t believe I’ve read anything by him that I’ve agreed with for several years. Glad Michelle Malkin dumped the Hot Air site to get away from the idiots!
Anyone who puts credence to polls done by PPP is very lame.
Huckaby and Gingrich are both major losers, in the eyes of real conservatives. .....Seems the lefties keep trying to pick the GOP candidate again, like they did when they selected McCain in 2008 by all of their cross-over voting in the primaries. ............JMO
Like all of them, he’s not new to the scene. The mere fact that he was part of the “lost its way” Congress is troubling to me. But he was a conservative then as now. His biggest problem, I guess, is that he does not have the charisma or recognition of Romney, McCain, or Palin, but I don’t think anyone else does either, and even Romney, McCain and Palin don’t score well on that.
“Like all of them, he’s not new to the scene. The mere fact that he was part of the “lost its way” Congress is troubling to me. But he was a conservative then as now. His biggest problem, I guess, is that he does not have the charisma or recognition of Romney, McCain, or Palin, but I don’t think anyone else does either, and even Romney, McCain and Palin don’t score well on that.”
Charisma definitely helps. At this point, I think Huckabee is probably the most charismatic. However, he lost my vote when he failed to utter a peep about the repeal of DADT. Of course, neither did Romney or Palin, but I expected less of them.
Unless someone else better emerges, I hope Pence runs for President. He seems like quite a decent candidate.
The thing that soured me on Huckabee was his attempt to imitate Clinton while governor of Arkansas. I’m not voting for anyone who supports the welfare state.
“The thing that soured me on Huckabee was his attempt to imitate Clinton while governor of Arkansas. I’m not voting for anyone who supports the welfare state.”
That’s definitely problematic. And I sure hope he didn’t try to imitate Clinton with Gennifer Flowers either. ;)
He was at 52 percent in March, more than 30 points ahead of Huckabee, and now? 21 percent, two points behind Huck... I think part of the reason he polled so well earlier in the year is that he was the anti-Palin.Thanks 2ndDivisionVet.
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