Posted on 01/01/2010 8:17:14 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
-The Race42012 staff was asked to take look ahead and share their predictions for the coming new year. Our readers are encouraged to post their own predictions in the comments.
Adam Brickley
Sarah Palin continues her recovery and cements herself as de-facto leader of the GOP after vigorously campaigning through 2010, after which she begins work on a second and more issue-oriented book. Mike Huckabee decides that he rather likes being a media figure and veers away from presidential politics – he pursues either a nightly show on Fox News or a daily radio program. Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty both lay low in “traditional pre-presidential mode” – Romney loses his status as the “establishment candidate” as party bigwigs bleed into the Pawlenty camp. Rick Santorum begins to look more serious as he moves to assert leadership of the hard-core SoCons after Huckabee’s exit.
The Republicans run the table in competitive Senatorial elections but fall short of retaking the chamber. John Boehner becomes Speker of the House after the Republicans eke out a razor-thin majority. This victory comes in spite of the massive intra-party spat caused by Rep. Parker Griffith’s primary loss to tea-party candidate Les Phillip. Phillip joins Rep. Martha Roby (AL), Rep. Ryan Frazier (CO), Rep. Allen West (FL), and Sen. Michael Williams (TX) in an impressive crop of newly elected African-American Republicans – who announce in December that they play to form a “Congressional Equality Caucus” to counterbalance the Congressional Black Caucus. The Democratic Party is also frustrated from the left as liberal independent candidates Oscar Goodman and Tim Cahill win governorships in Nevada and Massachusetts.
David Cameron’s Conservatives storm to power in he UK as Labour falls into a near-tie with the third-place Liberal Democrats. Gordon Brown resigns as Labour Party leader, but the implosion continues under new leader Ed Miliband. By the end of the year, Labour is seen as a spent force, while Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats cement their status as Britains dominant left-wing party. In Israel, the Kadima Party ceases to exist as members defect back to the conservative Likud or join a breakaway party founded by Shaul Mofaz. Japan’s new leftist government is embarrassed in elections to the nation’s upper house, while the anti-establishment, anti-bureaucracy “Your Party” scores big gains. Guantanamo Bay is finally closed by the end of the year – but remains an issue as former detainees reintegrate into al-Qaeda.
The 1980s have officially returned as electropop divas Lady Gaga, Little Boots, and La Roux dominate the charts. Gaga’s dominance is challenged mid-year as British teen sensation Pixie Lott crosses the Atlantic and cements herself as a global celebrity. Simon Cowell leaves American Idol to launch the American Version of “The X Factor” – which flops.
Adam Graham
Top Line: U.S. Senate: +6R, U.S. House +32R, Governors; +12R.
Governor Predictions: Republicans take over the Governor’s Mansions in Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. Democrats pick up the Governor’s Mansions in California, Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Vermont. Republicans deserve to lose in South Carolina and Nevada. The SC GOP will be saved by an anti-Democrat tide and Harry Reid will be a millstone around the Democratic’s Party’s neck in Nevada.
Senate Predictions: Democratic Incumbents defeated–Blanche Lincoln, Michael Bennet, Chris Dodd, and Harry Reid; Democratic Open Seats going Republican–Illinois, Delaware. Marco Rubio beats Charlie Crist in Florida. Jason Chaffetz defeats Bob Bennett in a Republican Primary for Utah’s Senate Seat.
House Predictions: In a three way race, Parker Griffith will finish first in the Republican Primary in June, but lose the primary runoff to Les Phillip in July.
Conditional predictions: If Wyoming Governor Dave Frudenthal (D-Wyo.) doesn’t run for re-election, this will be another Republican pick-up. If North Dakota Governor John Hoeven runs for the Senate, this will be another pick-up. However, Hoeven won’t run.
2012: By the end of 2010, Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty will have formed exploratory committees to run for President. Huckabee will follow soon thereafter but will stretch his talk show gig into early 2011 to maximize the platform and limit the personal economic damage. Sarah Palin will continue to demur until early-to-mid 2011.
Obamacare: Obamacare will collapse after the Christmas recess. Too much has been made of the Clyburn statement. What Clyburn’s statement signals is the willingness of the House leadership to accept a public option-free bill, not that of House backbenchers. The Senate plan as written will attract Republican opposition, opposition from pro-life Dems, opposition from liberal Dems like Louise Slaughter, and opposition from Blue Dogs who may like the Senate plan but know they’re dead dogs if they support him. All of which is to say that getting two chambers dominated by Democrats to agree on seperate health care bills was easy. Getting a coherent bill is what’s hard.
The Economy: Economic growth will be stagnant throughout the year with an annual growth rate of 1.3%. Unemployment will be 11.2% by the end of 2010.
Sports: Cincinnati Bengals win the Super Bowl over the Minnesota Vikings 24-9. Brett Favre announces his retirement after the game. After a Summer of Speculation, Favre announces he’s coming out of retirement to play for the Seahawks. Atlanta Hawks win the NBA Title. Dodgers win the World Series. Tiger Wood skips the Masters but returns to Golf to defend his title at the Memorial Tournament. He looks rusty and loses the tournament, but two weeks later wins the U.S. Open.
Alex Knepper
Scott Brown loses, Mike Castle wins, Richard Burr wins, David Vitter wins, Pat Toomey barely wins, Marco Rubio wins, Rick Perry wins handily, Meg Whitman wins, Carly Fiorina loses but not by much, Kelly Ayotte wins, Robin Carnahan wins, Mark Kirk wins but not by much, Sue Lowden wins, Rob Simmons wins but not by much, Rand Paul wins, Jane Norton wins, Blanche Lincoln loses. Kirsten Gillibrand holds on because nobody bothers to challenge her. Democrats +1, Republicans + 7, Swing of Republicans + 6, Senate going into 2011: 54 D 46 R. In other words: GOP makes big gains in the House, but not nearly enough to take it back. Best-case scenario: Pataki runs and wins, Blunt wins, Fiorina ekes out a win. 51 D 49 R. The odds of us gaining back the Senate are about 5%.
JD Hayworth does not run for John McCain’s seat, George Pataki does not run for Kirsten Gillibrand’s seat; Sarah Palin refuses to endorse Mark Kirk in the primary, but endorses him in the general.
A watered-down version of health care reform passes and reaches Obama’s desk in January, which he promptly signs and announces as a sweeping victory for “everyday Americans” against big insurance companies. Expect to hear Ted Kennedy’s name invoked.
The big 2010 issues, barring unforeseen circumstances: Jobs, the economy, the debt, the deficit. Because of this, the Democrats announce a new plan to reduce the deficit, “modernize our economy,” create new “green jobs,” give “all Americans equal access,” and things like that. They use center-right rhetoric for a left-wing plan — like they always do when they want to be popular with voters.
Staples on the 2010 trail: Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Tim Pawlenty. Sarah Palin will be more selective.
Mitt Romney’s book sells only moderately well; comparisons to Sarah Palin will be made by prognosticators. The conventional wisdom will be that Romney doesn’t excite the base like Palin does and that 2012 will be between them: the establishment’s pick who is only moderately exciting, and the wildcard who excites the base.
Sarah Palin endorses an anti-establishment candidate in hopes of using her power to sway an election. This will be a test of her influence. Marco Rubio will also gain her endorsement in the spring of 2010. Don’t rule out an endorsement of Peter Schiff in Connecticut, either.
Mitt Romney announces his presidential bid in December 2010, along with Gary Johnson and Tim Pawlenty. Sarah Palin waits until the spring or summer of 2011.
Alex and flamboyant female icons: Attends a Lady Gaga concert in the winter, purchases the new Britney Spears album in the spring, and gets excited about a new Ann Coulter book in the summer.
Rightosphere is a fantastic, sweeping success, turning the blog world on its head and turning Kavon W. Nikrad into a household name.
Aron Goldman
January/February: Obama orders air strikes on Al Qaeda training camps in Yemen. Peyton Manning, for the 4th time in his career, is named the NFL’s MVP; leads Colts to Super Bowl victory over Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints. Senate approves sanctions on Iran. 4th Quarter GDP numbers come in at 4.2% growth; part of short-lived spurt in W-shaped recovery. Obama signs health care reform bill into law.
March/April: Rick Perry defeats Kay Bailey Hutchison in GOP primary. Ruth Bader Ginsburg and John Paul Stevens announce their retirement. Obama selects Leah Sears Ward and Diane Wood to replace them on the Supreme Court. The St. Louis Rams select Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh with the first pick in the NFL draft.
May/June: Specter shellacs Sestak, securing Democratic nomination for Senate seat. Carmelo Anthony and the Denver Nuggets defeat LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in six games in the NBA Finals. LeBron announces after the series that he’s joining the Brooklyn-bound Nets.
July/August: Charlie Crist edges out Marco Rubio in GOP primary. Obama pre-empts Netanyahu; drops bunker-busters on Iranian nuclear sites at Bushehr, Natanz and Qom.
September/October: In Subway Series, Yankees repeat; sweep Mets. Unemployment falls under 9 percent; too little/too late for Dems in Congress.
November/December: Republicans gain 35 House seats, pick up 6 spots in the Senate (Castle, Kirk, Lowden, Norton, Baker, Simmons). Californians legalize marijuana. With signs of double-dip recession upon us, and sporting an anemic 39 percent job approval rating, Obama announces he won’t allow Bush tax cuts to expire in January 2011.
Bob Hovic
The Republicans will net 42 seats, sufficient for a narrow 220-215 majority.
I’m not sure if Hayworth will challenge McCain or not, but if he does, I’ll predict that McCain survives the challenge (possibly with help from Huckabee and maybe Palin making campaign appearances for him).
Marco Rubio easily defeats Charlie Crist and wins the general in a walk.
Republicans pick up 10 seats, winning Connecticut, New York, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Arkansas, North Dakota, Colorado, and Nevada. The shocker of the night is Carly Fiorina’s narrow win over Barbara Boxer in California (okay, maybe this one is wishful thinking, but I won’t rule it out). The Republicans lose none of their seats.
The remainder of the year is consumed by the two parties trying to outbid each other for Joe Lieberman’s vote.
After losing to Rick Perry, Kay Bailey Hutchison changes her mind about retiring from the Senate.
Republicans pick up a net of two seats, taking Tennessee, Arkansas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Kansas, and Wyoming. The Democrats, however, offset this by taking Connecticut, Vermont, Minnesota, Arizona, and Hawaii.
Dan Hynes will defeat Pat Quinn in the primary and (in a squeaker) Jim Ryan in the general to hold Illinois for the Democrats in the biggest disappointment of the election cycle for Republicans.
Meg Whitman will hold California for the Republicans, but by election night it won’t be seen as a surprise, since support for Moonbeam Brown had begun to fade in mid-summer as the state slid deeper into financial crisis.
The Republicans probably would lose Rhode Island, but Lincoln Chafee does his old party an inadvertent favor by making an ego run as an independent, letting the GOP hold on.
Obama will hit a low of 37% approval in mid-March, but stabilize thereafter. He’ll be at about 40% in the last poll before election day, after which he takes a hit among Democrats because of the election debacle.
Talk of a Hillary challenge ensues, and the Kos/MyDD types begin urging a run by Howard Dean. Dean does nothing to quiet the talk.
By late in the year, it will be obvious that Mitch Daniels is running for president, while Gingrich and Giuliani will have withdrawn (perhaps formally, but at least de facto).
That leaves five serious candidates, who will be ranked as follows by most observers at year-end: Romney, Huckabee, Palin, Pawlenty, Daniels – though there will still not be enough separation among the top three to declare a true front-runner.
Rick Santorum will be claiming to be a serious candidate.
There will be much discussion after the election about the ‘rebirth’ of the Republicans in the northeast quadrant of the country, with important wins in Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New York, and Connecticut, added to the 2009 win in New Jersey.
Since most of these will be won by moderates, there will be a slight shift in the ideological balance of power in the party, as well as the geographic blance.
The USA will make it to the quarterfinals in the World Cup. Brazil will win it all, defeating Spain easily in the final.
Newsweek will announce suspension of publication in late summer.
DaveG
A final health care bill will be approved by both houses of Congress in January. The end result of ObamaCare will pretty much be the Senate bill, with a few tweaks here and there (e.g., slightly more generous subsidies, more taxes on the wealthy).
Democrats will nix plans for immigration reform in 2010 and will instead focus on deficit reduction, probably though tax hikes.
President Obama will replace both Justice Stevens and Justice Ginsberg.
Mitt Romney, after enjoying crown prince status for most of 2009, will see his potential 2012 candidacy begin to fade due to the aftermath of the health care debate, which has pushed the national political center of gravity on health care rightward and which transformed Romney’s once centrist position on health care into a center-left position given the Democrats’ passage of a bill that essentially amounts to a national version of RomneyCare. With Romney’s signature piece of economic legislation now considered left of center, and with Romney continuing to enjoy suspicion among red-state cultural conservatives, Mitt will begin to look like the candidate of the Republican Left, with his nomination seeming less and less likely.
Tim Pawlenty will continue to seem more and more like Lamar ‘96: another regular guy Republican whose presidential campaign goes nowhere fast.
Mike Huckabee will poll just as well as he did throughout most of 2009, but will continue to seem a bit too comfy doing the talk show thing to be taken seriously for another presidential run.
Mitch Daniels will continue to deny any interest in the presidency. Rudy Giuliani will launch an exploratory committee after the midterms.
Tea Partiers will divide between dueling revolutionary candidates in Sarah Palin and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson. The latter will appeal to many of the same groups that Ron Paul did, only on a broader scale, including social libertines and America First types.
There will be whispers of a McCain 2012 candidacy based on McCain’s disgust with Obama’s fiscal liberalism and foreign policy cluelessness, and the Arizonan’s belief that the re-emergence of fiscal calamity as a national issue bodes well for a mavericky McCain/Lieberman fiscally conservative, socially disinterested, hawkish third party ticket. This becomes doubly true if McCain’s 2010 re-election bid starts to become less than a sure thing, especially given Lieberman’s almost certain electoral travails in just two more years.
Sarah Palin will continue her ascent among Republican primary voters due to her status as a symbol of rebellion against President Obama and the present political establishment and economic and cultural elites. Pundits will begin to wonder whether anti-Palin Republicans will be able to coalesce around a single alternative to the Alaskan, or whether the rest of the party will fracture a dozen different ways, leaving Palin with a small but determined plurality in 2012.
Republicans will win 7-10 Senate seats in November, along with 30-40 House seats. The result in each house will most likely be a bare Democratic majority, though a 218-seat GOP House is possible, as is a 51-seat Senate thanks to a Joe Lieberman party switch.
Dustin Siggins
New Orleans Saints win the Super Bowl.
Frank Mir wins the Ultimate Fighting Championship heavyweight title.
Republicans win 22 seats in the House and five seats in the Senate.
President Obama hits the lowest approval ratings ever at this point in a presidency.
Republicans get 2/3 of the races in New Hampshire- definitely the Shea-Porter seat, and one of the other two.
Republicans split between the Tea Party/Erick Erickson/Club for Growth and strategist/Gingrich/Beltway portions of the party, and lose at least 10 seats Republicans should have won nationwide as a direct result.
Bart Stupak is the key to healthcare reform passage- the pro-life coalition in the House.
Sarah Palin drops out of the running for the Republican nomination.
Third-party candidates and Ron Paul-style Republicans make huge gains in influence and power.
Kavon W. Nikrad
Republicans gain 6 seats in the Senate and fall just short of retaking the House in November. The GOP’s significant gains nationwide are mitigated somewhat by going 0 for 6 in the CA, NY, and IL Governor/Senate races.
If he remains in the contest, Charlie Crist will lose by a solid margin to Marco Rubio. Chuck Devore will defeat Carly Fiorina in the California Republican senate primary. Jason Chaffetz will defeat Bob Bennett in the Republican Primary for Utah’s Senate Seat. Rick Perry soundly defeats Kay Bailey Huchison in the Texas Republican Governor Primary.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will serve out her full-term.
Continued civil unrest in Iran means no Israeli airstrikes this year.
Mike Huckabee announces that he will not run for president sometime after the Midterms.
The rumblings of a Mitch Daniels presidential run grow louder as the year goes on.
Kristofer Lorelli
Dem’s keep control of house (220-215) and Senate (49-49-2), or (50-48-2) if Pataki runs, with Biden as tie-breaking vote.) The GOP gains the following Senate seats; NV, AR, CA, CT, CO, DE, IL, and PA. With Harry Reid’s is defeat, Dick Durbin is sworn in as Majority Leader, and Pelosi retains control by surviving a challenge to her leadership.
Perry defeats Hutchison in TX primary.
Crist defeats Rubio in a dirty campaign. Some high profile republican leaders refuse endorsements to help avoid an intra-party civil war.
Vermont elects its first African American governor (a Republican).
New Mexico elects its first Hispanic-female governor (a Republican).
The new national health care death panels will outlaw male circumcisions, based on a constitutional opinion written by Cass Sunstein; that the foreskin of all U.S. citizens are protected under the Bill of Rights.
Record foreclosure rates will hit the United States.
President Obama will not produce his original birth certificate.
Two Supreme Court Justices retire and are replaced by liberal-activist Judges.
The Rightosphere becomes a little more competitive with the cyberspace-dominating left-roots.
Aron Goldman will not warm up to the idea of President Sarah Palin.
Newsweek declares bankruptcy….assets are purchased by the New York Times.
Unemployment rate finishes year at 9.7%.
A second stimulus package is signed by President Obama.
High-end retailers sell-off assets as a last-ditch effort to avoid bankruptcy.
One member of Race42012 gets married (hopefully not me!!!), another announces an impending birth (definitely not me!!!).
Huntsman resigns as Ambassador to China, begins to build a campaign machine for 2012.
It is discovered that Saudi Arabia has escalated a secret nuclear arms program, in defiance of the Obama administrations failure to destroy Iran’s uranium enrichment program.
Robert Mugabe passes away at age 86. Kim Jong-Il passes away at age 69.
British tabloids uncover that COL. Muammar al-Gaddafi son, Saif al-Islam, had been secretly married to Israeli actress, Orly Weinerma.
Civil war breaks out in Yemen, along the similar political lines of the 1994 war. The United States, Arab nations and Al-Qaeda fight a proxy war in this conflict.
Conservatives re-gain control of Chile’s Presidency, after the run-off vote of January 2010.
Iceland declares bankruptcy.
President Obama imposes dozens of trade restrictions on imported goods from China.
Several 2nd and 3rd world nations begin to match their currency to the Yuan, instead of the USD. Industrial nations dump U.S. dollar and purchase gold.
Facebook reaches 400 million users, $400 million in revenue, and Mark Zuckerberg is named Time person of the year.
Casualty rates in Afghanistan (May-September) reach record levels.
Colts will the Super Bowl. Phillies win the World Series. The Black Hawks win the Stanley Cup. The Orlando Magic win the NBA Championship. Canada/US finish 1-2 at Winter Olympic games. Tiger returns to golf in July. Nets are sold to Russian Billionaire, do not move to Brooklyn, but instead move into the Prudential Center. Brett Favre is injured, sells condo in downtown St. Paul.
Richard Murray
On February 12, 2010, the House and Senate will pass some version of healthcare reform. There will be much fanfare over passage, but nobody will like the final bill.
Keeping true to form, the New Orleans Saints will make it all the way to the Super Bowl, only to lose in a shootout to Indanapolis. Final score: 42-40.
Early in the summer, further cracks will appear in the strategies being employed in Iraq and Afghanistan. Tough talk will ensue, but no concrete actions to correct the problems.
Despite a late season threat, the Atlanta Braves will once again fail to make the baseball playoffs. The New York Yankees will make the playoffs, but lose before making it to the World Series.
Shortly before the elections, the situations in both Iraq and Afghanistan deteriorate significantly, and Osama Bin Laden publishes another video of himself.
Leading into the elections, with Pres Obama’s approval ratings hovering in the low to mid 40’s and unemployment at 12%, predictions will be that Democrats narrowly hold the House. Election night reality will be that, with defections and election losses, Democrats drop to 205 seats. Republicans swell to 220 seats, but the news of the night will be that third parties take 10 seats. Consequently, third parties began to seem more of a viable option for the future.
After the elections, sensing a weakened President, North Korea will announce that the US is not negotiating in full faith, and will openly continue nuclear arms production.
Despite promises of cooperation, China and Russia will continue to obstruct any and all efforts by the US to calm international tensions.
Turmoil in Iran will grow in intensity, with threats of revolution against the Mullahs. No international aid will be forthcoming, and the uprising will be ruthlessly fought against.
Sec Clinton will resign after the elections, fueling speculations of a White House bid. No indications will be made as to whether she wants to run or not.
Tommy Boy
Mike Huckabee will formally announce that he is not running for President on “Huckabee.”
Michele Bachmann will win re-election by a double-digit margin.
Mitt Romney’s book, No Apology, will not break down the top 5 of the NY Times best-seller list for non-fiction hardcover books (and if it does, the NY Times will place the “dagger” symbol next to it).
GOP gains 5 seats in the Senate (we hold all of our seats right now while winning in CO, CT, PA, NV, and AR). Republicans win back the House (including Hoffman in NY-23). Parker Griffith will win re-election as a Republican.
Trey Greyson and Marco Rubio win their respective primary contests by double-digit margins. Meg Whitman loses in the Republican primary. John McCain defeats J.D. Hayworth by a margin under 10%.
Barack Obama will be a net negative in terms of approval at one point in all of the following pollsters (Gallup daily tracking, Rasmussen, USA Today/Gallup, Washington Post/ABC News, NBC/WSJ, Quinnipiac). His favorability rating, for those who buy the distinction, will fall to an average of 48% while being propped up by the weekly joke, Daily Kos/Research 2K. His approval rating among miltiary families in the Quinnipiac poll fall to a low of 33/58 approval/disapproval. The narrative that “Michelle Obama’s favorables are so much lower than Laura Bush’s” will commence.
Sarah Palin will win the “most admired woman” Gallup poll in 2010.
LeBron James will win the MVP award but Kobe Bryant will repeat as NBA Finals MVP. Either the Dallas Cowboys or Arizona Cardinals will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Race42012 will score an interview with Sarah Palin.
A scientific poll will show Sarah Palin tied or leading Barack Obama in a hypothetical 2012 contest.
Scott Rasmussen will nail the 2010 elections but is not able to defeat the narrative that he changes his results at the very end. The NY Times/CBS News poll will fail miserably at anything it does.
This website seems optimistic about Congressional races.
For IL, winning the Governorship will be easier than winning the Senate.
Carnahan could actually swim against the GOP tide and win against Blunt. Yet DC GOP insiders claimed Sarah Steeleman was unelectable.
Defending Judd Gregg’s seat will be tough, but doable.
I think we take Senate seats in CT, NV, and DE. FL & KY are likely GOP holds. Portman and Toomey (if faced against Specter) are lean GOP holds. NH, MO and PA (if Stesak wins the primary) are tossups.
{Sarah Palin endorses an anti-establishment candidate in hopes of using her power to sway an election. This will be a test of her influence. Marco Rubio will also gain her endorsement in the spring of 2010. Don’t rule out an endorsement of Peter Schiff in Connecticut, either.}
I predict Palin will come out for Rand Paul, thus helping him win the KY primary.
San Jose Sharks defeat NJ Devils 4 games to 3 in the 2010 Stanley Cup finals.
Fiorina unseats Boxer in CA, but ACORN “finds” thousands of ballots signed by Disney characters, and after seven months of lawsuits, Boxer regains her seat.
Meg Whitman is elected Governor, then puts the entire State up for auction on e-Bay. The Sultan of Abu Dhabi places the winning bid and immediately bans pork, beer, and Jews from California.
The Tea Party and the New Socialist ProgreSSives get enough electoral votes to throw the election into the House of Reps.
The House selects Sarah Palin as the 45th POTUS, and the Senate chooses John Thune as VP.
Heck, why not. I have no particular qualifications to predict this, but....
A red wave will roll over the US and the becoming “new” GOP (with a concentration of Tea Party conservatives) will gain the house by a small majority. The votes in each of the respective races will mostly be overwhelming getting past ACORN/SEIU/DEM fraud and vote box stuffing. There will be controversy about the NY-23 style machines (from the company Chavez is a stakeholder in)
The Senate will be 51 Dem, 2 Independent and 47 GOP.
Obamacare will pass - then be rescinded in 2011 with the new house.
The DOW will test 6,500 again.
Mortgage rates will rise by 2% by year end.
Unemployment (official figures) will be around 10.5%
I'll pick-and-choose the predictions on the site I agree with, and add a few of my own:
The big 2010 issues, barring unforeseen circumstances: Jobs, the economy, the debt, the deficit. Because of this, the Democrats announce a new plan to reduce the deficit, “modernize our economy,” create new “green jobs,” give “all Americans equal access,” and things like that. They use center-right rhetoric for a left-wing plan — like they always do when they want to be popular with voters.
The Economy: Economic growth will be stagnant throughout the year with an annual growth rate of 1.3%. Unemployment will be 11.2% by the end of 2010. Record foreclosure rates will hit the United States. A second stimulus package is signed by Obama. High-end retailers sell-off assets as a last-ditch effort to avoid bankruptcy.
2010 - Obamacare collapses. The Senate plan as written will attract Republican opposition, opposition from pro-life Dems, opposition from liberal Dems like Louise Slaughter, and opposition from Blue Dogs who may like the Senate plan but know they’re dead dogs if they support him. If abortion funding goes back into the bill, Jindal votes against it in the House.
Presidency: Mike Huckabee decides that he rather likes being a media figure and opts out of presidential politics – he pursues either a nightly show on Fox News or a daily radio program. However, he doesn't “officially” rule out a run in 2010, in order to stretch his talk show gig into early 2011. Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty both lay low in “traditional pre-presidential mode” and form exploratory committees by the end of 2010 – Romney loses his status as the “establishment candidate” as party bigwigs bleed into the Pawlenty camp. Rick Santorum will claim to be a serious candidate. Sarah Palin will continue to demur until early-to-mid 2011.
Independent candidate Tim Cahill wins governorship in Massachusetts. “Independent” marxist Lincoln Chafee makes a comeback and is elected Governor of R.I. (hope I'm wrong about this one)
CINO David Cameron becomes the new Prime Minister of the UK as Labour falls into a near-tie with the third-place Liberal Democrats. Gordon Brown resigns as Labour Party leader. Cameron turns out to be little more than Tony Blair redux with a “C” next to his name.
Sarah Palin endorses Marco Rubio before the primary, in the spring of 2010. She refuses to endorse Mark Kirk in the primary, but endorses him in the general. Sarah Palin doesn't endorse anyone in either the CT or KY primary races.
House Predictions: Michele Bachmann will win re-election by a double-digit margin. “Mean Jean” Schmidt wins re-election easily for a change. Parker Griffith will win the primary narrowly, then re-election in November as a Republican. Halvenston and Bean defeated in Illinois, Foster narrowly wins re-election over son-of-Hastert. Dems continue to control everything in NH as long as Sununu Sr. is still around running the state GOP into the ground.
Senate Predictions: Democratic Incumbents defeated–Blanche Lincoln, Michael Bennet, and Harry Reid. Dodd drops out of the race in CT and the Dems field a replacement candidate. JD Hayworth does not run for John McCain’s seat, and George Pataki does not run for Kirsten Gillibrand’s seat.
After losing to Rick Perry by a large margin, Kay Bailey Hutchison changes her mind about retiring from the Senate. Richard Burr wins, David Vitter wins, Pat Toomey wins by a sqeaker over Sespek. Trey Greyson narrowly defeats Rand Paul and then narrowly wins again over the RAT in November. Kirk and Ginneonlious win their primaries handily in Illinois (hope I'm wrong about this). Whether Kirk wins or loses in November depends on how much a third party candidate draws.
Dem’s narrowly keep control of house (220-215) and Senate (49-49-2), or (50-48-2) if Pataki runs, with Biden as tie-breaking vote.)
Dec. 2010 - With Harry Reid’s is defeat, Dick Durbin is selected as Majority Leader (50-50 chance that he'll accept it while Obama is president), and Pelosi retains control by surviving a challenge to her leadership. Within five months of Durbin’s tenure, Republicans are wishing the incompetant stooge Harry Reid was still there. Since most of the GOP Senate pickups are won by RINOs, there is an shift in the ideological balance of power in the party, with the new Republican “opposition” being more willing to help Obama than when the Dems had a veto proof majority.
Illinois Governorship - Tossup, as both parties primaries are up in the air at this point. ;-p
California Governorship - Jerry “Moonbeam” Brown and Meg Whitman are the nominees in California. Voters rebel against so called “Republican rule” of the last seven years and return Moonbeam to the Governor's mansion for the first time in 30 years. He wins handily over Whitman.
A scientific poll will show Sarah Palin tied with Barack Obama in a hypothetical 2012 contest.
Most people are predicting that the Dems will retain control of the House and the Senate, and that looks most likely if the poll numbers in November remain where they are today.
Go take more LSD.
I don't know which polls you're referring to, but I see a lot of them showing "generic" approval for the GOP much higher than the Democrats, as well as approval for congress (run by the Dems) at historic lows. Please link...
Nice joke. LoL!
They are likely to keep the Senate.
The house will be close. If they don’t lose it they almost will. Libtards I’ve talked to refuse to believe this. They are mistaken.
I think there will be between 200 and 230 House Republicans. And at this point that more than 230 is more likely than less than 200.
You think Turbin would decline the leader’s office? I can’t fathom that. It’s his dream. I figure he’d respond to “the President is also from Illinois, does your state have too much power?” with a hearty “so what”.
True. They don't take into account the GOP's demonstrated propensity, since the latter 1990s, for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
If the GOP (on national, state or local levels) does make gains in 2010, it will not be because of the GOP -- but because of the Tea Partiers, Sarah Palin, and Limbaugh-Levin-Beck-Hannity. (Not a big fan of Hannity, but I won't deny that he does and will continue to have some influence.)
Please refer to the article linked above.
Please refer to the main article linked above.
I see a lot of them showing "generic" approval for the GOP much higher than the Democrats, as well as approval for congress (run by the Dems) at historic lows.
That is true, but analyses by pollsters like Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato is indicating that even with that high approval differential in favor of us, the competitive seats in the House restrict us to a maximum of somewhere between 20-35 seats net gain, falling just short of winning back the House. Same for the Senate - most see us winning 5-7 seats, just short of majority. The columnists above largely say the same thing. Bottom line - even the most optimistic pro-Republican poll watchers are not predicting us winning back the House or the Senate.
Charlie Cook and Sabato are Democratic shills whose job is to spin numbers for their party.
Uh.. sure, yeah. I would rather believe professionals who have a demonstrated technique and a record of accuracy than anonymous posters who fantasize and make unsupported assertions about such things.
Then believe Rasmussen who is scientifically superior (proven track record) to these morons and whose studies do not support their conclusions.
I hope not, she should stay out of KY’s race. RP is a disaster.
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