This website seems optimistic about Congressional races.
For IL, winning the Governorship will be easier than winning the Senate.
Carnahan could actually swim against the GOP tide and win against Blunt. Yet DC GOP insiders claimed Sarah Steeleman was unelectable.
Defending Judd Gregg’s seat will be tough, but doable.
I think we take Senate seats in CT, NV, and DE. FL & KY are likely GOP holds. Portman and Toomey (if faced against Specter) are lean GOP holds. NH, MO and PA (if Stesak wins the primary) are tossups.
I'll pick-and-choose the predictions on the site I agree with, and add a few of my own:
The big 2010 issues, barring unforeseen circumstances: Jobs, the economy, the debt, the deficit. Because of this, the Democrats announce a new plan to reduce the deficit, “modernize our economy,” create new “green jobs,” give “all Americans equal access,” and things like that. They use center-right rhetoric for a left-wing plan — like they always do when they want to be popular with voters.
The Economy: Economic growth will be stagnant throughout the year with an annual growth rate of 1.3%. Unemployment will be 11.2% by the end of 2010. Record foreclosure rates will hit the United States. A second stimulus package is signed by Obama. High-end retailers sell-off assets as a last-ditch effort to avoid bankruptcy.
2010 - Obamacare collapses. The Senate plan as written will attract Republican opposition, opposition from pro-life Dems, opposition from liberal Dems like Louise Slaughter, and opposition from Blue Dogs who may like the Senate plan but know they’re dead dogs if they support him. If abortion funding goes back into the bill, Jindal votes against it in the House.
Presidency: Mike Huckabee decides that he rather likes being a media figure and opts out of presidential politics – he pursues either a nightly show on Fox News or a daily radio program. However, he doesn't “officially” rule out a run in 2010, in order to stretch his talk show gig into early 2011. Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty both lay low in “traditional pre-presidential mode” and form exploratory committees by the end of 2010 – Romney loses his status as the “establishment candidate” as party bigwigs bleed into the Pawlenty camp. Rick Santorum will claim to be a serious candidate. Sarah Palin will continue to demur until early-to-mid 2011.
Independent candidate Tim Cahill wins governorship in Massachusetts. “Independent” marxist Lincoln Chafee makes a comeback and is elected Governor of R.I. (hope I'm wrong about this one)
CINO David Cameron becomes the new Prime Minister of the UK as Labour falls into a near-tie with the third-place Liberal Democrats. Gordon Brown resigns as Labour Party leader. Cameron turns out to be little more than Tony Blair redux with a “C” next to his name.
Sarah Palin endorses Marco Rubio before the primary, in the spring of 2010. She refuses to endorse Mark Kirk in the primary, but endorses him in the general. Sarah Palin doesn't endorse anyone in either the CT or KY primary races.
House Predictions: Michele Bachmann will win re-election by a double-digit margin. “Mean Jean” Schmidt wins re-election easily for a change. Parker Griffith will win the primary narrowly, then re-election in November as a Republican. Halvenston and Bean defeated in Illinois, Foster narrowly wins re-election over son-of-Hastert. Dems continue to control everything in NH as long as Sununu Sr. is still around running the state GOP into the ground.
Senate Predictions: Democratic Incumbents defeated–Blanche Lincoln, Michael Bennet, and Harry Reid. Dodd drops out of the race in CT and the Dems field a replacement candidate. JD Hayworth does not run for John McCain’s seat, and George Pataki does not run for Kirsten Gillibrand’s seat.
After losing to Rick Perry by a large margin, Kay Bailey Hutchison changes her mind about retiring from the Senate. Richard Burr wins, David Vitter wins, Pat Toomey wins by a sqeaker over Sespek. Trey Greyson narrowly defeats Rand Paul and then narrowly wins again over the RAT in November. Kirk and Ginneonlious win their primaries handily in Illinois (hope I'm wrong about this). Whether Kirk wins or loses in November depends on how much a third party candidate draws.
Dem’s narrowly keep control of house (220-215) and Senate (49-49-2), or (50-48-2) if Pataki runs, with Biden as tie-breaking vote.)
Dec. 2010 - With Harry Reid’s is defeat, Dick Durbin is selected as Majority Leader (50-50 chance that he'll accept it while Obama is president), and Pelosi retains control by surviving a challenge to her leadership. Within five months of Durbin’s tenure, Republicans are wishing the incompetant stooge Harry Reid was still there. Since most of the GOP Senate pickups are won by RINOs, there is an shift in the ideological balance of power in the party, with the new Republican “opposition” being more willing to help Obama than when the Dems had a veto proof majority.
Illinois Governorship - Tossup, as both parties primaries are up in the air at this point. ;-p
California Governorship - Jerry “Moonbeam” Brown and Meg Whitman are the nominees in California. Voters rebel against so called “Republican rule” of the last seven years and return Moonbeam to the Governor's mansion for the first time in 30 years. He wins handily over Whitman.
A scientific poll will show Sarah Palin tied with Barack Obama in a hypothetical 2012 contest.