Posted on 12/21/2023 1:48:43 PM PST by Signalman
According to far-left outlet Slate, which is loath to ever criticize a Democrat, Biden is facing the worst environment for an incumbent president since the Great Depression. Poll after poll shows the president's numbers plummeting to record lows.
As President Joe Biden grows increasingly mystified by his unpopularity, he is also experiencing the worst polling of his presidency. This plummet was punctuated by last Thursday’s release of several Bloomberg/Morning Consult surveys showing him getting swept in a series of battleground states. Then, on Tuesday, yet another New York Times/Siena College survey showed former President Donald Trump beating Biden nationally and, perhaps most shockingly, with young voters. Now that the contact high of the most recent Democratic election overperformance in November’s off-year contests has worn off, genuine fear has set in among both Democratic insiders and the rank and file as the president trails Trump by 3 points in the RealClearPolitics average.
Precisely how scared Democrats should be about Biden’s standing depends on how his plight compares with those of presidents past. And there’s no sugarcoating it: This might be the worst polling environment for an incumbent president one year out from an election since the advent of the polling era in the 1930s and also the most dire situation facing any Democratic presidential candidate in decades. Panic is entirely warranted.
It's not just head-to-head polling that has become a horror show for Biden. As the article notes, the current president is in far worse shape regarding his approval ratings than Donald Trump was at this point in the 2020 election cycle. Specifically, Biden's net negative approval is nearly twice as high.
It gets worse. In his approval ratings, too, compared with his incumbent predecessors, Biden is likewise off on an island, in all the wrong ways. Bush was sporting 58 percent favorability at this stage in the 2004 cycle, with nearly a 21-point net favorability. Obama was at 45 percent with a net negative approval of -4 points. (Of course, both went on to win their elections.) Trump was at 44 percent and -8.8 net approval, and we all know what happened there. Biden as of this writing is averaging just 40.5 percent in the RealClearPolitics average, with a net -15.4—nearly twice as bad as Trump on net.
There are two ways to look at this if you are a Republican, and I think both are valid. On one hand, it is never a bad thing to be leading among various indicators heading into an election. Biden has multiple things working against him. His actual performance has been abysmal, but he is also perceived as feeble, senile, and rapidly declining due to his advanced age. Worse for him, he's perceived that way because those things are actually happening. There's no recovering from that with just a shift in messaging.
On the other hand, Republicans have to be extremely careful to not get overconfident. We've been fooled by bad polling before, including in the most recent major election. Democrats not only overperformed in 2022, but they've overperformed in almost every special election since. There is certainly a turnout dynamic that has been favoring them since 2018, and it can't be ignored.
Advertisement The worst thing Republicans could do is assume Biden will simply lose by default. There's a ton of money that will be spent by Democrats in 2024, and their most ruthless moves (especially regarding the weaponization of government) will be played in the summer, not now.
Regardless, Biden is in trouble, and Democrats know he's in trouble. How far into the process can the party wait before making a change? Conceivably, Biden could hang around until the convention so as not to become a lame duck too early. He could then bow out gracefully, citing some kind of health issue. Democrats would then be able to reset the race at the perfect time.
Would Biden do that, though? I highly doubt it. Jill Biden's ambition wouldn't let him. She enjoys being treated like a pampered queen, and she's not going to let that go willingly. In other words, Democrats look like they are screwed, but Republicans need to campaign like they are down five points. Take nothing for granted.
That’s cute. You really thing DJT is going to make it to the WH unscathed and jeopardize the livelihoods and freedoms of a lot of evil people.
Interesting.
Where on earth did you get that idea?
Trump will never be allowed to set foot in the White House again, unless he's invited there by a future Republican president for his official portrait unveiling --and by the time we have a future Republican president, if ever, Trump will have likely passed away.
You have a poor read on the sentiment of the country if you think that the political center (i.e. Independents and moderate Democrats) are going to go for a smarmy conservative like DeSantis over a populist like Trump. Trump reaches out to demographics that DeSantis could never connect with, even if he tried, which he doesn’t.
Yeah, that “dynamic” is called massive vote fraud.
No, I've resigned myself to the fact that it is very unlikely that DeSantis will be the GOP nominee.
Too many in this country would rather lose with a bloviating liberal circus clown than win with an actual accomplished conservative.
It is what it is.
The left are not omnipotent. They make mistakes. They made one when they were unable to prevent Trump from taking office in 2016. And, although they tend to circle the wagons more than the right does, they have their internal divisions and squabbles. The real world is not as simple and neat as your theories presume.
So you think conservative-branded DeSantis would do better among the general population than he’s doing with Republicans? Think about what you’re saying. It makes no sense. The Republican party leans more right than the population at large. If the GOP can’t stand DeSantis’s smarmy moralizing then Independents and Moderate Democrats certainly won’t.
Good post.
Dems run on corruption. The culture is corrupt to the core. There is no sector of the national character that is wholesome, healthy, and devoted to the Founder’s vision. Not one.
MAGA is a rear guard action by disenfranchised citizens. It has no power, no institutional presence, and no ability to reach a people dumbed down to slave mentality.
The only hope for this dark world is the light of Christ which has the only power capable of driving out the black void of hopeless resignation.
Bring it Jesus!
Michelle Obama, take it to the bank!
Obama’s fourth term.
Well, he’s certainly EARNED the loathing of a good 3/4 of Americans.
However, we’re not rid of him yet! And the next one to come down the pike will be even WORSE.
Ugh!
There are a lot of people who stand to be imprisoned. Powerful people. JFK was murdered for much less.
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