A retired physician's take on epidemiologists

I am reminded of the phrase “Those who can, do. Those who can’t, teach. Applicable to just about any endevor.

I wish Michael Crichton was still around. “State of Fear,” was a brilliant deconstruction of climate panic as a means of pushing control over the masses. As a Medical Doctor, his take on COVID-19 would have likely been fascinating.

Trump should have had some real practicing physicians on his task force to balance out Fauci and Birx.

...like a psychiatrist to scientology.

Fauci is not a real doctor or scientist. He’s just an arrogant, career bureaucrat.

I’m reminded of the Eisenhower quote: “When the battle starts, plans are worthless, but before the battle, planning is everything.” (paraphrase)

People with fancy computer models are probably useful when nothing much is going on. People can sit back and imagine a lot of What Ifs, and perhaps make some recommendations about Risk Mitigation and whatnot. I see some value in that.

But when a pandemic strikes, people need to put away their computer models, they need to save the fancy statistical analysis for later. The data they would be working with is almost certainly flawed, so what’s the point?

Resources should go to managing people who are actually ill, and also to making sure that the rest of society is able to stay on track. Having someone like Fauci actually make decisions is a bad idea.

medical science in general is more concerned with jealously guarding 50 year old professional turf than solving the problem. you saw it with fauci endlessly telling us what he could not/would not do to combat the virus, and you’re seeing it with the mindset behind this article.

science needs an overhaul.

“Their models, and therefore their advice and counsel, are based upon best guesses from previous pandemics.”

“best guesses from previous pandemics” = “the agenda of their donors”

He’s giving their honesty the benefit of the doubt. They have been so wrong that their motives should be at least questioned.

Punchline in #7:

“7. They commonly seem to think they’re in charge of everything — that they’ve suddenly become the chief executive officer of a state or the entire nation. They seem to forget that their job is simply to advise a governor or a president, not take over the executive role.

Bottom line: Basically, it’s a well compensated occupation with little or no personal accountability for the outcome. Nice work if you can get it!”

I’m liking this doctor.

Epidemiology is the old Sociology degree — a fancy name for common knowledge — not well thought out.

Epidemiologists caused the obesity and diabetes epidemic with their advice to switch from a healthful life-sustaining animal-based diet to a plant-based diet — which is basically inappropriate for humans. And those are the people getting killed off when the innocuous virus hits. They have no immunity because all the essential proteins and fats have been eliminated in favor of highly processed plants (carbohydrates that break down to sugar).

That’s why all the organs of the body rots — and is susceptible to total organ failure (sepsis). The virus is just the trigger, and not the ultimate danger. The underlying health condition is what does a person in. But one could never get epidemiologists to understand the obvious.

Instead, in the world of epidemiologists, trees grow to the sky with no limit, and correlation is causation, and of course, always putting the cart before the horse — so that the animals are not exploited in the design of their models.

I am a economist and appreciate working with epidemiologists so as to have one other profession more screwed up than my own. The author is spot on. But why stop at 7 reasons? They are never accountable after the fact, true, but what makes them most insufferable is the license this gives them to claim provenance beforehand to everything under the sun. Gender equity, income redistribution, socialized Medicine, the rights to divert newly invented vaccines according to their own sense of justice, and truly so much more.

I am more center-left than almost anyone who posts here, though I have loved Free Republic for coming up on two decades. These are all important issues and they need work. Low and middle income countries can have systematic misogyny on levels that I would not have thought possible, for example. But half-baked book-reading degree in epidemiology bestows no insights whatsoever into any of these domains.

-Fauxi 2005. NIH Scientists Conceal Millions in Royalties for Experimental Treatments

https://ahrp.org/nih-scientists-caught-concealing-millions-in-royalties-for-experimental-treatments-ap

-Fauxi’s 15 deadly mistakes and contradictions

https://710wor.iheart.com/featured/mark-simone/content/2020-05-12-dr-anthony-faucis-15-totally-wrong-predictions-and-contradictions/

-Fauxi and Birx used fraudulent Imperial College model to urge shut down

https://liberalsarenuts.com/2020/05/07/dr-fauci-and-dr-birx-used-imperial-college-model-now-confirmed-as-a-complete-fraud-to-persuade-president-trump-to-lock-down-entire-us-economy

https://judithcurry.com/2020/03/25/covid-19-updated-data-implies-that-uk-modelling-hugely-overestimates-the-expected-death-rates-from-infection

-Modeler had to resign in disgrace

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/professor-lockdown-modeler-resigns-in-disgrace/

-Fauxi later reverses and says we can’t rely on models

https://www.redstate.com/brandon_morse/2020/04/03/fauci-we-cant-really-rely-on-models/ ;

-Fauxi has numerous conflicts of interest

https://nationalfile.com/president-trump-vs-bill-gates-on-treatment-fauci-has-a-100-million-conflict-of-interest

https://newswithviews.com/dr-fauci-and-dr-birx-have-a-record-of-medical-failure/

-Fauxi has long history of fraud

http://www.americanfreedomunion.com/dr-faucis-long-criminal-history/

https://www.coreysdigs.com/law-order/when-the-masks-went-on-their-masks-came-off/

-Fauxi fired researcher that exposed his vaccines were spreading chronic diseases

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/sweet-innocent-dr-fauci-assistant-doctor-fired-jailed-2011-warning-vaccines-giving-americans-known-chronic-diseases/

-Fauxi is Hillary loyalist

https://conservativedailypost.com/fauci-fraud-face-of-coronavirus-task-force-exposed-in-hillary-loving-deep-state-act
/

-Fauxi promised AIDS Vaccine and has yet to deliver

https://newswithviews.com/dr-fauci-and-dr-birx-have-a-record-of-medical-failure/

-Scarf Queen falsified data on HIV research

https://truepundit.com/dod-leak-feds-investigated-birx-fabricated-falsified-hiv-aids-vaccine-trials/

- Fauxi knew hydroxyxhloroquine could both cure and prevent corona viruses in 2005. Passive aggressive on HCQ in 2020. Intentional?

https://onenewsnow.com/perspectives/bryan-fischer/2020/04/27/fauci-knew-about-hcq-in-2005-nobody-needed-to-die

-”Fauxi” praised use of hydroxychloroquine in 2013 to treat the MERS corona virus. Risky drug in 2020?

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/wow-dr-fauci-cheered-hydroxychloroquine-success-treating-mers-coronavirus-2013-today-skeptical-weird/

COVER UP: Fauci Approved Chloroquine, Hydroxychloroquine 15 Years Ago to Cure Coronaviruses; “Nobody Needed to Die” – True Pundit

https://truepundit.com/cover-up-fauci-approved-chloroquine-hydroxychloroquine-15-years-ago-to-treat-nobody-needed-to-die

-Fauxi funded research grants to Wuhan lab to fund risky virus research that was illegal in the U.S.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8211291/U-S-government-gave-3-7million-grant-Wuhan-lab-experimented-coronavirus-source-bats.html

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/paid-for-the-damn-virus-thats-killing-us-giuliani-rips-fauci-over-grants-to-wuhan-laboratory

https://www.fort-russ.com/2020/04/breaking-kennedy-exposes-dr-faucis-role-in-creating-highly-infectious-mutant-strain-of-coronavirus/ ;

https://conservativedailypost.com/evidence-fauci-funded-virus-gain-of-function-study-making-transmission-to-humans-possible/

https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/why-us-outsourced-bat-virus-research-to-wuhan/

https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan-lab-millions-us-dollars-risky-coronavirus-research-1500741

-Fauxi in 2017: President Trump Will Be Challenged By a “Surprise Global Disease Outbreak”. What did he know?

https://www.healio.com/infectious-disease/emerging-diseases/news/online/%7B85a3f9c0-ed0a-4be8-9ca2-8854b2be7d13%7D/fauci-no-doubt-trump-will-face-surprise-infectious-disease-outbreak

-Despite his 2017 prediction, Fauxi unprepared for 2020 pandemic. By design?

https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2020/04/02/america-unprepared-coronavirus-pandemic-what-do-about-covid-19/5109482002/

-In Jan 2020 interview, he said, “... this is not something that the citizens of the United States right now should be worried about.” - intentional?

https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/03/flashback-fauci-coronavirus-us-threat-trump/

-Fauxi caught on video flip flopping on severity of the virus

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=59a0uGIFZGY

-Fauxi said masks do not work.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/preventing-coronavirus-facemask-60-minutes-2020-03-08/

-Fauxi in February said malls, gyms and movie theaters were OK. Make us more vulnerable?

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/update-fauci-said-cruises-ok-march-9-fauci-said-malls-movies-gyms-ok-feb-29-now-wants-blame-trump-failures/

-Fauxi in March said Americans cruises were OK. Catch us with guard down?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/douggollan/2020/03/09/fauci-says-cruising-is-ok-if-you-are-healthy/#6f8eb5f62d4d

-Fauci on CNN Easter Sunday suggested President Trump should have shut down the country in February

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/dope-dr-fauci-says-trump-shut-economy-february-democrat-impeachment-sham/

-Fauxi exaggerated need for Hospital beds

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/05/faucis-follies-us-coronavirus-field-hospitals-shut-without-treating-single-patient-garbage-models-used-us-experts/

-Fauxi is front man for Big Pharma, pushing expensive new drugs that require tests and trials rather than inexpensive proven cures like HCQ+zinc+zpack that have been around for decades. More time to let the virus spread?

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/04/fauci_now_is_part_of_the_problem_not_part_of_the_solution.html

-Fauxi delaying tests of vaccines and cures

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/04/fauci_now_is_part_of_the_problem_not_part_of_the_solution.html

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/05/four_questions_senators_should_ask_redfield_and_fauci_on_tuesday.html

-Fauxi agenda is mandated vaccines to benefit Big Pharma and Bill Gates.

https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/8/anthony-fauci-sets-stage-mandatory-vaccine/

-Fauxi 100% wrong with exaggerated models

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/13016-us-surgeon-general-adams-dumps-bill-gates-who-cdc-%E2%80%98predictive-contagion%E2%80%99-model/

-Fauxi longtime relationship with corrupt WHO director, a communist-globalist with terrorist ties, who covers for the CCP

https://vaccineimpact.com/2020/is-w-h-o-director-tedros-a-terrorist-global-ties-to-bill-gates-clinton-foundation-dr-fauci-china-and-genocide/

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/fauci-who-head-really-outstanding-person

https://vaccineimpact.com/2020/is-w-h-o-director-tedros-a-terrorist-global-ties-to-bill-gates-clinton-foundation-dr-fauci-china-and-genocide/

-Fauxi endorses Tinder hookups

https://nypost.com/2020/04/15/fauci-endorses-tinder-hookups-with-a-caveat/

-Fauxi plotted ‘Global Vaccine Action Plan’ with depopulation advocate Bill Gates, pushing panic and doubts about HCQ. Big Pharma $$$s.

https://www.newsbreak.com/news/0OlUbR7U/dr-anthony-fauci-plotted-global-vaccine-action-plan-with-bill-gates-before-pushing-covid-panic-and-doubts-about-hydroxychloroquine-treatments

- Fauxi, May 2020 told National Geographic the virus did not originate in Chinese Lab.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/

-Fauxi wrong again on State of Georgia reopening

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/05/dr-fauci-wrong-coronavirus-cases-drop-new-lows-georgia-opens-state-lifts-lockdown-orders/

-Dr Birx now believes CDC inflating death numbers by as much as 25%. distancing herself?

https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-bombshell-report-dr-birx-believes-cdc-inflating-death-numbers-much

-First Case in US Treated with Remdesivir was January – Two Weeks Later China Was Mass Producing the Drug – The Firm Gilead Sciences and Dr. Fauci Are In the Middle

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/05/first-case-covid-19-us-treated-remdesivir-late-january-two-weeks-later-china-mass-producing-drug-firm-gilead-sciences-dr-fauci-middle
/

Fauxi’s own NIH - Breakthrough: Chloroquine Phosphate Has Shown Apparent Efficacy in Treatment of COVID-19 Associated Pneumonia in Clinical Studies

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32074

https://mobile.twitter.com/99freemind/status/1243171622661521409/photo/2

Two Fauxi mistakes led to nationwide Lockdown

https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-two-mistakes-that-led-to-a-national-lockdown_3349318.html

Fauci and the Tuskegee Syphilis Study victims

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/05/dr_fauci_and_the_tuskegee_syphilis_study_victims.html#ixzz6MpATbmwS

Fauxi ties to Deep State, Soros, Gates, Clintons

https://youtu.be/KZmJ43hmHC8

Fauci caught in lie about inflammatory condition in children (May 2020)

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/05/another-dr-fauci-lie-debunked-mysterious-inflammatory-condition-children-typical-every-year-13-100000-children-study/

Did Anthony Fauci’s promotion of dangerous research help create the COVID-19 pandemic?

https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/did-anthony-faucis-promotion-of-dangerous-research-help-create-the-covid-19-pandemic?utm_source=LifeSiteNews.com&utm_campaign=a8ffd140b2-Daily%2520Headlines%2520-%2520U.S._COPY_782&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_12387f0e3e-a8ffd140b2-402230833

Right on the money.
This is Fauxi in a nutshell.

The models for COVID-19 fatalities from 7 weeks ago are within 2% of today’s numbers. The models aren’t the problem; the media’s distortion of them is.

Models tell you how many resources you’ll need, where you’re need them, and when you’ll need them. Models are what enable Walmart to automatically ship massive amounts of specific items to areas where bad weather is predicted, ensuring supply is meeting demand and sales aren’t lost due to not having critical items in stock. Models are not gospel, but they are very useful tools when you don’t have the politicians and the media outright lying about what they say.

Putting away the models when a pandemic strikes would leave us totally reactionary. We’d be weeks behind the pandemic, always reacting to news that’s days or weeks old with actions that take days or weeks to carry out. That will cost lives. Properly utilized, models enable you to put the people and the materials in the right places so supply meets demand. That saves lives the same way it saves sales for Walmart.

"1. When a pandemic strikes, I've never once witnessed an epidemiologist get his hands dirty in providing actual patient care. So where the rubber meets the road during a pandemic, they're useless."

This would be like Neil Armstrong calling the guy who plotted his course to the moon useless because Neil never saw that guy in outer space. Specialization is the reason we're able to build the level of complexity we have in modern society. This criticism is absurd.

"2. Their models, and therefore their advice and counsel, are based upon best guesses from previous pandemics. It's been pretty clear during COVID-19 that in any number of cases, their accuracy has been less than impressive."

The IHME models for COVID-19 fatalities from 7 weeks ago are within 2% of today's totals (123,000 vs 125,000 predicted). If anything, the models have consistently been slightly underpredicting in most cases. Earlier models had virtually no data about COVID-19 and were less accurate, largely thanks to the lies spewed forth by the Cheating Conniving Communist Chinese. Once we had real data from western nations, the models tightened up and got real accurate real quick. The media, on the other hand, has consistently distorted what the models have told us. The media is pushing sensationalism as they always do, except for some reason many have decided to blame the models rather than the media's lies about those models. The models are good; the media stinks.

"3. Typically, the confidence ranges of their models are wide enough that you could drive a Mack truck through them. Then, when actual outcomes fall somewhere within those massive ranges, they pat themselves on the back as though they've really accomplished something. I honestly think you or I could come up with equally accurate models by throwing darts at a dartboard!"

Models from 7 weeks ago are within 2% of today's numbers. If you could model lottery numbers to that degree of accuracy, everyone would win the lottery almost every drawing. Want proof? Here it is:

"4. They get to have tunnel vision. The concern of the epidemiologist is to focus on the disease and the disease only. It is not their job to concern themselves with the economic, social, political, marital, and psychological devastation resulting from strict quarantines and lockdowns. "

Again, that's the job of the epidemiologist: epidemiology. Again, this would be like Neil Armstrong complaining that the guy plotting the course to the moon didn't pack Neil's lunch for him. That's not his job. His job is to tell you which direction gets you to the moon. Packing Neil's protein bars is somebody else's job. Making decisions about what to do in a crisis is the Chief Flight Director's job. If Gene Kranz says "abort mission", you don't complain about the guy plotting trajectory. It was Gene's call to scrub the mission. Don't like that call? Yell at Gene.

"5. In fact, they have no personal economic skin in the game. During any pandemic lockdown, the epidemiologists still receive their full salary and benefits. I've always thought it would be interesting to suspend their pay and benefits during a lockdown and see how enthusiastic they'd be about continuing! It's easy to make dire and sweeping pronouncements when you have no skin in the game."

So... the complaint here is that the epidemiologists are doing their jobs without outside influences beyond doing their jobs? Again, that's absurd. That'd be like saying prosecutors should have to serve out the sentences they seek for criminals. No. The job of a prosecutor is to bring charges against alleged criminals and do their best to put criminals behind bars. If the judge lets a murder walk or the judge sentences an innocent man to prison, there should be no reprisal against the prosecutor unless there was actual misconduct on their part. The alternative is you have them skewing their data to tell people what they want to hear to avoid negative consequences of telling the truth.

"6. They typically work in packs. They're often employed by an academic or consulting center. This gives them the comfort of never having to take personal and individual responsibility for their projections."

Yes, often when you're working on complex projects, you work in teams. Like when we went to the moon. Neil Armstrong didn't build Apollo capsules in his back yard, run some quick trajectory numbers, hijack an ICBM, and scream "Ye-Haw" to the moon and back. A massive team of specialists worked on all different aspects to get the team of astronauts there and back in one piece. Again, this criticism is completely absurd. And at this point, given how accurate the models have become, it would be less about taking the blame as individuals and more about taking the credit for having predictions within 2% nearly 2 months out. That's impressive.

"7. They commonly seem to think they're in charge of everything — that they've suddenly become the chief executive officer of a state or the entire nation. They seem to forget that their job is simply to advise a governor or a president, not take over the executive role."

They have no authority beyond the governor of the state they work in, so if the governor doesn't like their recommendations, then those recommendations don't happen. This "they think they're in charge" criticism is irrelevant because they have - in fact - zero authority to actually do anything. During World War II, the Secretary of State could have declared our surrender to the Germans, but nobody would have cared. He'd have been fired and replaced.

The article is ridiculous. The author should focus much more attention on how the media and politicians have distorted the information presented in these very accurate models to suit their own needs of sensationalism and entertainment. The models are fine. The problem is the liars talking about the models and lying about them to fit their agenda. The media wants to grab our attention so they can sell us stuff we don't want and don't need. Blaming the models for the media's distortions is like when the two women start fighting each other on Jerry Springer while completely ignoring the guy who's been cheating on both of them and who's sitting there laughing at them. Don't let the media lie to you and then laugh at you for believing it; hold them accountable.