I’m reminded of the Eisenhower quote: “When the battle starts, plans are worthless, but before the battle, planning is everything.” (paraphrase)
People with fancy computer models are probably useful when nothing much is going on. People can sit back and imagine a lot of What Ifs, and perhaps make some recommendations about Risk Mitigation and whatnot. I see some value in that.
But when a pandemic strikes, people need to put away their computer models, they need to save the fancy statistical analysis for later. The data they would be working with is almost certainly flawed, so what’s the point?
Resources should go to managing people who are actually ill, and also to making sure that the rest of society is able to stay on track. Having someone like Fauci actually make decisions is a bad idea.
The models for COVID-19 fatalities from 7 weeks ago are within 2% of today’s numbers. The models aren’t the problem; the media’s distortion of them is.
Models tell you how many resources you’ll need, where you’re need them, and when you’ll need them. Models are what enable Walmart to automatically ship massive amounts of specific items to areas where bad weather is predicted, ensuring supply is meeting demand and sales aren’t lost due to not having critical items in stock. Models are not gospel, but they are very useful tools when you don’t have the politicians and the media outright lying about what they say.
Putting away the models when a pandemic strikes would leave us totally reactionary. We’d be weeks behind the pandemic, always reacting to news that’s days or weeks old with actions that take days or weeks to carry out. That will cost lives. Properly utilized, models enable you to put the people and the materials in the right places so supply meets demand. That saves lives the same way it saves sales for Walmart.