History is indeed on the side of President Trump.
Posted on 05/12/2020 4:16:43 PM PDT by Lazamataz
The old chestnut, that American presidential elections are won on the fullness of the people's wallets, has been proven over the centuries to be accurate. The economy often influences whether an incumbent president, seeking re-election, will prevail and gain a subsequent term.
The global Covid-19 response is leading many to think that the world is facing a deep depression. The economy, being hobbled in a serious way, will be down quite a bit. That, muse pundits across the political spectrum, is likely to cause President Trump to fail in his bid to be re-elected.
While in normal times, this may be a reasonable conclusion, I'd like to offer another perspective: That this crisis may, in fact, help President Trump get his second term.
This crisis is perceived to be so severe as to be akin to wartime. In wartime, history shows us that no President has been defeated during a war. In two cases -- Truman and Johnson -- the attempt to be re-elected was abandoned, but not one time has a president been defeated during ongoing hostilities.
Abraham Lincoln had an illuminating quip that explained the phenomenon: "It is not best to swap horses while crossing the river.” This quote succinctly captures the reason people may tend toward the safe choice, the known quantity. People don't want to be surprised by a new direction by a new leader, in most cases. As a piece of supporting evidence, look at the fact that President Trump's approval ratings are at an all-time high.
I take the opposite view offered by the mainstream press. I believe that President Trump has a very good chance to be re-elected, and I believe that this stems in no small part to the fear of adopting a new leader during this time of hardship.
Getting Trump reelected isn’t the problem. Assuring the House and Senate is another matter that is every bit as important. Just look at how much harm has been done to Trump’s ability to govern simply from having to deal with a democrat controlled House. The Senate is critical should there be another vacancy on the Supreme Court. Ruth (You wouldn’t hit it, trust me) Goldberg is on the edge and the Senate will largely affect who replaces her.
Gotta shut down the vote fraud.
History is indeed on the side of President Trump.
I would like to see enough Republican poll watchers in place that no demonrat would ever be left alone.
The Republican apparatchiks have never placed poll watchers, as far as I can determine.
I have a comment. It’s incredible how you flip from an arguably isane guy to a journalist writing an editorial where each paragraph builds on the previous one and culminates in a very persuasive well put-together argument - in a split second’s time.
I have always liked that about you :-)
Successful wartime leadership requires:
1. Clearly-defined enemies, with demonstrations of them paying the price
2. Clearly-defined objectives, with tangible benefits to the home team
Please add me to the “list”.
FDR was reelected in the middle of an economic debacle that people (probably incorrectly) did not blame on him. Truman won reelection despite very high inflation.
I think the key, as with everything, is people’s general sense of expectations: are things getting better, even though they may be hard? The “right track” question has been good and steadily rising under Trump.
Today he hit 51% in Harris, 96% GOP support in one poll (all time high), and 49% in Gallup. He also is at 45% in CNN, which is one of his lower polls-—but this is an all time high.
I've had similar thoughts, but you articulate it so much better.
Another thing is China. China has pissed off the world. People are upset to learn that vital medicines, medical protection equipment, and other sundry goods are made almost exclusively in China.
So who is the just about ONLY political person in the USA who's been warning us about this?
Donald J. Trump.
Everybody knows it. He is the one person, like Churchill in 1940, who has been trying to tell us all these years.
Pres. Trump came down the escalator in 2015 to talk about unguarded borders, loss of manufacturing, and the threat China posed and how wrong it is to give up our factories and skills to a foreign country just to save a few bucks.
He's right. He shouldn't be removed by someone who will turn around an kiss Chicom butt. I think a majority of folks understand this.
Agree. That and the opposition is an absolute friggin moron.
I think it comes down to Michigan. Due to their witch aka Governor, Trump is going to win Michigan easily, thus the election.
I expect a combination of your “don’t swap horses mid-stream” plus the expectation that Trump will pull off a recovery in months where Obama took years.
Churchill was tossed AFTER 5 years of brutal war and near starvation-level rationing for the British people. People there were weary and Atlee and the Labour party made a lot of claims and false promises that they could not keep.
We’re not even close.
This would be like throwing out FDR in 1942.
No surprise Trump has been biding his time ... could have fully “drained the swamp” earlier, but most effective time to drop bombshells is shortly before next election.
And I also agree with you, Jimmy. The economic fundamentals are there. In fact, any company that can't survive a one-month crisis would probably fail in the next 12 months anyway. Actually 70% of new NYC restaurant businesses never make it past 12 months.
Fresh and robust businesses will arise out of this crisis. And families got a month's paycheck from Uncle Sam -- enough of a break to look around and find a better opportunity.
Who knows: maybe Atlanta employers will relax the need to drive Monday to Friday through Atlanta's insane traffic. Will tele-commuting become a viable alternative?
OTOH, a segment of the population might be scared into wanting a ‘magic bullet’ while they’re being bombarded with the latest doom and gloom infection reports, body counts, and cherry-picked statistics. If the Dems can conjure up an imaginary ‘cure’ in the fall (and the Left can lie with a smile on their faces with impugnity), it may peel away some fence-sitters and independent votes in the states under the most Draconain rule: Michigan, Virginia, Pennsylvania, even California to a degree. I still think Trump will win it. With Biden stuck in his basement and being forced to adhere to this whole quarantine business the Dems have ginned up, he can’t campaign, and his virtual rallies are techically trouble-riddled jokes. If he pokes his head out of his warren and steps into the sunshine, we get gaffe-a-minute Slow Joe Part Deux, and the issue of diddling a staffer in ol’ Rattlesnake Canyon will be dogging him all the way. Not to mention Trump is not only the incumbent with four years of experience under his belt, his personality can suck all the air out of a policy debate. Bottom line is, Trump took a very savvy gamble by invoking the 10th Amendment and dropping controlling authority into the laps of the statehouses, while overseeing the bigger issues. It’s now become a finesse game.
‘Trump will win. 315+ electoral votes’
that’s a real stretch...go to 270towin, take the consensus forecast, and check out the winning combinations...currently dems have Clinton’s 232, and pubs are at 204, with 102 up for grabs; under this scenario, Trump’s ceiling is 284, should he take FL, PA, MI, and NC...Biden’s ceiling is 283, if he gets PA, MI, and NC...pubs have 12 wining combos, dems have 14, and there are 3 tie possibilities...gonna be a tight one, looks like...
‘He lost big to Coolidge and Harding.’
that must have been a big surprise to Wilson, since James M Cox of Ohio was the candidate...
Everyday, more debt will continue to be add to the burden of all. Trump will have to have a message besides blame China. Because, as of now he still is holding to the trade deal, even though they helped to unleash as he put it worse than a pearl harbor situation.
Trump will be the underdog heading up to the debates.
The voters blamed Hoover and Jimmy for the economic situation. They did not blame FDR in 1936. They won’t blame Trump in 2020.
Blame the Chinese. Blame the stars. Blame Darwin ...survival of the fittest.
The economic and social result of the big Federal spending is unknown. We have never been here before.
Currently optimistic/aggressive employers are filtering through the unemployed, finding those who are self-motivated to work. Smart employers are grabbing the best employees first.
That means the average and sub-par employees will be the last to be hired. They will be on unemployment comp that pays better than the jobs for which they are qualified.
That will drive employers to replace them with automation/robots.
We need a common sense (non-ideological) approach. Increase the pay of the working poor by paying them the full fruits of their labor. Their net pay should include both the employer and employee share of payroll taxes.
Drop this unemployment comp. It is crazy. It is counter-productive.
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