Posted on 05/12/2020 4:16:43 PM PDT by Lazamataz
The old chestnut, that American presidential elections are won on the fullness of the people's wallets, has been proven over the centuries to be accurate. The economy often influences whether an incumbent president, seeking re-election, will prevail and gain a subsequent term.
The global Covid-19 response is leading many to think that the world is facing a deep depression. The economy, being hobbled in a serious way, will be down quite a bit. That, muse pundits across the political spectrum, is likely to cause President Trump to fail in his bid to be re-elected.
While in normal times, this may be a reasonable conclusion, I'd like to offer another perspective: That this crisis may, in fact, help President Trump get his second term.
This crisis is perceived to be so severe as to be akin to wartime. In wartime, history shows us that no President has been defeated during a war. In two cases -- Truman and Johnson -- the attempt to be re-elected was abandoned, but not one time has a president been defeated during ongoing hostilities.
Abraham Lincoln had an illuminating quip that explained the phenomenon: "It is not best to swap horses while crossing the river.” This quote succinctly captures the reason people may tend toward the safe choice, the known quantity. People don't want to be surprised by a new direction by a new leader, in most cases. As a piece of supporting evidence, look at the fact that President Trump's approval ratings are at an all-time high.
I take the opposite view offered by the mainstream press. I believe that President Trump has a very good chance to be re-elected, and I believe that this stems in no small part to the fear of adopting a new leader during this time of hardship.
Thoughts?
Trump will win. 315+ electoral votes
Very sound reasoning.
I would further add that Wilson was a draconian democrat president during the Spanish flu.
He lost big to Coolidge and Harding.
The 1920s were an era of exceptional conservatism and economic boom.
It was not some short interlude prior to the depression.
It was Americans rejecting the shutdowns and authoritarian behavior of Wilson.
I think this will usher in a similar decade of renewed American freedom.
We do not have to outrun “the bear.” We only need to outrun the competition. Bet on Donald John Trump to do exactly that.
Original graphic by TheOatmeal
Totally agree.
Plus there’s about to be a lot of truth revealed about #ObamaGate.
Based on the nonsense Democrat Governors are mandating Trump landslide on its way.
I am cautiously optimistic about this. The actions of a number of state and local officials could very well sway some Democrat-leaning voters outside of the hard-left “true believers”, but it also doesn’t hurt that the party’s presumptive candidate doesn’t enjoy a lot of enthusiasm among Democrats.
And as bad as Biden is, I don’t see anyone on the bench who’s any better.
But NEVER underestimate the will and ability of the Democrats to steal an election.
My only fear is the economy. If things are bad in November is “could” hurt turnout for Trump.
I believe the economy will recover much more quickly than anyone has predicted, because the root cause of its collapse is not economic in nature. There will be casualties but also lots and lots of opportunities. Trump can then claim complete credit for the rapid rise in the economy and he can also claim credit for the rapid rise in the economy before the corona virus that Obama was trying to claim. He can show quite clearly that tax cuts and deregulation are the causes of a good economy.
Trump is pushing Governors to open up and restore their states to normal life, while reminding them to use common sense, and offering the full capabilities of the federal government to support them. He gave them everything they needed when the virus was peaking, and they praised him for it. Now he has moved on to the next phase of the battle.
Biden is is trying to claim Trump screwed it up, but as always, Biden is fighting a battle that is over. Trump has moved on, and is pushing to restore the economy and to get answers from China. Despite his complete lack of ideas while he hid in his basement, he still wants to convince people he would have done it better.
I’m still laughing at his failed and quickly abandoned “shadow briefs”. He couldn’t help but say he would be doing the same thing as Trump, because all of Trump’s ideas were better than his. And that’s when he could string a couple sentences together.
Agreed
I concur.
The British cost Winston Churchill out of office as prime minister within two months of the end of the war in Europe. (He was gone before the war in Asia ended.)
People don’t like to be reminded of bad times. Presidents often get punished for things they had no impact on.
If Biden is still the nominee in November, Trump is a shoe in.
By November Joe’s decline will be impossible to cover up.
Many will not pull the lever for someone that’s clearly not all there.
You are incorrect. Woodrow Wilson was not running for president in 1920.
It’s supposed to be: The British tossed out Winston Churchill
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