Posted on 03/24/2020 10:11:11 AM PDT by Mariner
TO DATE.
Left unchecked, if projections are even close to right, 230 million plus Americans (70%) could be infected.
At even 1% death rate (wildly optimistic as world CFR is > 4% currently), that’s over 2 million dead Americans.
And at 20% hospitalization, that’s 46M+ hospital beds - in a country that has less than 1M beds.
But, hey, as long as Donald can get the economy back and running again so that he has a shot at being re-elected, guess those poor slobs who are among the 45M+ that don’t get a bed or the 2M+ dead are just plan outta luck!
“If the President wants to start sooner than others, it just means the next stop will be sooner than others.”
Very true, we will be start stop start stop for 18 months if we do not get a vaccine. Hopefully the meds work
Not sure if true but:
If we get it and it mutates we get it again just like the flu each year.
Good chart—make sure and keep it updated for the next few months. ;-)
CA STILL below 2,000 cases.
Why such disparity with other states?
CA has been the gateway to China for decades.
https://www.kcra.com/article/coronavirus-covid19-california-sacramento-latest-info-outbreak/31898949
That (the market reaction today) is great, but as someone recently said..
You don’t need a livelihood if you don’t have a life.
Great leader or great speaker?
I’m voting for Biden or whoever the Dems put up
Good luck with that. I'm sure they would handle this much better or at least we wouldn't know much about it since the msm won't report anything bad about a dem or China, or Iran
Pres. Trump
1. Just produced a document in the live town hall... said he heard Cuomo complaining about ventilator availability, yet Cuomo in 2015 turned down buying 16,000 ventilators for pandemics.
2. Says the 15 day period will be extended a little, but hopes to have the country opened back up in some ways by Easter [April 12]
It’s crazy how these leaders wait to late to act then want everyone to bail them out. They want to wait until the point of no return rather than being proactive.
It’s happening in many states nationwide ramping up right now, governors are waiting until it’s crisis level to institute lockdowns. Unreal. At least lock down the trouble areas.
Awww shit! I trespassed in a fearper. I promise I won’t do it again. SORRY!
You make *lots* of assumptions.
First, what makes you think this is “left unchecked”? I see many, many states shutting down.
The rest of your calculations rest on the “left unchecked” assumption.
And the goal is to get the economy running again *and* people be safe. The two are not mutually exclusive, as much as people on both sides want it to be.
Youre cute chart is INVERTED if you compare the flu deaths in Italy last week (about 150) to the Coronavirus deaths in Italy last week (about 4000).
VP Pence:
Earlier today 2000 ventilators from a stockpile were shipped to New York... 2000 more tomorrow.
I thought they quit testing a week or so ago.
Also, 33 day growth % still 6 points off first 24 days. That is, it would take fairly large increases to "move the line" back above 37%. At 31%, doubling rate is approx 2.3 days. With US 33 day projected at 25%, doubling would be closer to 2.7 days.
Dr W, with US 8 day projection pegged to Italy, model is now showing 2k cum total. And you predicted that earlier this month through experience/intuition?
Italy 60.5 IT v US USA 330.4 Day Date Cum Total % Chg Daily Ratio Date Cum Total % Chg Daily 24 3/15/2020 1,809 25.5% 368 3.5 3/23/2020 516 27.4% 111 25 3/16/2020 2,158 19.3% 349 3.5 3/24/2020 617 19.5% 101 26 3/17/2020 2,503 16.0% 345 3.5 3/25/2020 715 16.0% 99 27 3/18/2020 2,978 19.0% 475 3.5 3/26/2020 851 19.0% 136 28 3/19/2020 3,405 14.3% 427 3.5 3/27/2020 973 14.3% 122 29 3/20/2020 4,032 18.4% 627 3.5 3/28/2020 1,152 18.4% 179 30 3/21/2020 4,825 19.7% 793 3.5 3/29/2020 1,379 19.7% 227 31 3/22/2020 5,475 13.5% 650 3.5 3/30/2020 1,564 13.5% 186 32 3/23/2020 6,077 11.0% 602 3.5 3/31/2020 1,736 11.0% 172 33 3/24/2020 6,820 12.2% 743 3.5 4/1/2020 1,949 12.2% 212 Gross differential 3.5 Population differential 5.5 Per capita differential 19.1 Growth rate 24 Days 36.69% 29.73% 33 Days 30.67% 25.80% Sources https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy
Just keep counting...
Exponents are fun...
#26
Happy Tuesday all.
Hopefully, Italy has a third day of decline.
As we still face the worst of the challenge in the US, it is heartening to see the limits of CV’s power.
Brix:
In the last 8 days the US has now done more testing than South Korea did in 8 weeks
See post 36.
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