Odds are you will live.
Posted on 03/12/2020 7:14:06 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Since the first case of coronavirus on 1st December 2019, there have been over 100,000 cases of the disease worldwide, in over 65 countries.
Despite the extreme measures taken to try and reduce the spread, the WHO has been careful not to call it a pandemic at this stage.
You may remember previous pandemics that have occurred over the last decade or more, including swine flu, bird flu, and SARS, but it can be hard to figure out how coronavirus compares.
Take a look at our guide below to see how coronavirus compares to these outbreaks and historical pandemics that reshaped the global population.
At the time of writing this, the novel coronavirus or COVID-19 has :
If you’d like to learn more about the novel coronavirus, how it’s transmitted, and measures we can take to slow its progress, join our new COVID-19 coronavirus course from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. The first week starts on 23rd March.
Seasonal flu, or influenza, happens every year worldwide – typically between December and February. It’s difficult to estimate exactly how many cases there are per year as it’s not a notifiable illness (so it doesn’t have to be reported to local authorities), and most people with mild symptoms don’t even visit a doctor. Current estimates put the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) at 0.1%.
There are an estimated 3-5 million cases of severe flu each year, and around 250,000-500,000 deaths worldwide.
In most industrialized countries, deaths mostly occur in people who are aged 65+. Otherwise, it’s dangerous to pregnant women, children under 59 months, and people with chronic medical conditions.
The annual vaccine reduces transmission and serious complications in most developed countries, but it is still an accepted but unpleasant part of every winter.
Compared to seasonal flu, coronavirus:
There have been multiple outbreaks of bird flu (or avian flu) over the years, including the most recent in 2013 and 2016. These are typically from 2 different stains – the H7N9 virus and H5N1.
The H7N9 epidemic in 2016 made up a third of all human cases reported but was still limited compared to both the coronavirus and other outbreaks/pandemics in this list. There have been 1,233 laboratory-confirmed cases of bird flu since the first epidemic.
The illness has a Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of 20-40%, which means that 20-40% of cases resulted in death.
While the rate is very high, the spread from person to person is limited which has, in turn, reduced the number of associated deaths. It’s also hard to track since birds don’t always die from the illness.
Compared to bird flu, coronavirus:
The Ebola outbreak of 2013 was mostly concentrated in 10 countries, with Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Libera worst hit, but the very high CFR of 40% made this a serious concern for health officials worldwide.
Between 2013 and 2016, there were 28,646 suspected cases and 11,323 deaths, but both of these figures are likely to be under-estimations.
People who survived the initial outbreak may still fall ill months or even years afterwards, as the virus can lie dormant for extended periods.
Fortunately, a vaccine was introduced in December 2016 and is considered effective.
Compared to Ebola, coronavirus:
Camel flu is a misnomer – while camels do have antibodies to MERS and may have been involved in spreading the disease; it was initially introduced to humans via bats.
Like ebola, it only affected a small number of countries (27), but 858 deaths from 2,494 laboratory-confirmed cases flagged this as a serious threat if measures weren’t put in place to contain it.
Compared to camel flu, coronavirus:
Swine flu is the same strain of flu that wiped out 1.7% of the global population in 1918. It was declared a pandemic again in June 2009, and an estimated 11-21% of the world population contracted it.
Fortunately, the CFR is considerably lower than in the previous pandemic, with 0.1-0.5% of cases resulting in death. 18,500 of these deaths were laboratory-confirmed, but estimates are as high as 151,700-575,400 globally.
50-80% of severe cases were found in people who had underlying conditions such as pregnancy, asthma, diabetes, and cardiovascular disorders.
Compared to swine flu, coronavirus:
SARS was identified in 2003 when it passed from bats to humans resulting in 774 deaths. There were ultimately 8,100 cases across 17 countries – by May, WHO reported a 15% CFR.
The figure is likely closer to 9.6% when suspected cases are included, with a 0.9% CTR for people aged 20-29, growing to 28% for people aged 70-79. Like coronavirus, SARS had worse outcomes for males than females across all age groups.
Compared to SARS, coronavirus:
The Hong Kong flu pandemic appeared on 13th July 1968 – by 1969 it had caused 1-4 million deaths worldwide. It was one of the biggest flu pandemics of the 20th century, but fortunately had a lower CFR than the outbreak of 1918 so caused fewer deaths overall.
This may have been because people had developed immunity due to a similar outbreak in 1957, and thanks to improved medical care.
Compared to the Hong Kong flu, coronavirus:
The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 was one of the deadliest disease events in human history.
In the first year of the pandemic, the life expectancy in the USA dropped by 12 years, and within 24 weeks the disease killed more people than HIV/AIDS did in 24 years.
Despite the name, the outbreak didn’t actually originate in Spain; wartime censors in Germany, UK, USA, and France suppressed reports of the disease, but Spain did not, giving the false impression that it was suffering more cases and deaths compared to its neighbours.
This strain of H1N1 ultimately infected over 500 million people, or 27% of the global population at the time, and had a death toll of 40-50 million (although some estimates are as high as 100 million).
By the end of 1920, 1.7% of the global population had died of this disease, with an unusually high mortality rate for young adults between 20 and 40 years old.
Compared to the Spanish flu, coronavirus:
It took over 200 years for the European population to recover from the black plague, with some areas only reaching their pre-1327 populations in the 19th century.
Estimates say that it reduced the world population by 25%, while Europe was even harder hit and lost 30-60% of its population.
Details such as CFR and definite infection rates are difficult to know for certain given the time period, but it was one of the world’s deadliest pandemics.
Compared to the black plague, coronavirus:
The common cold is the most common disease affecting humans – the average adult suffers from 2-3 colds per year, and the average child may catch 6-8 over the same time period.
While there are over 200 virus strains associated with the cold, complications are rare and deaths are very unusual and only typically occur in the very old, very young, or immunosuppressed.
Compared to the common cold, coronavirus:
Coronavirus is still an active outbreak, and it’s important to take steps to reduce both your chance of contracting it and the spread of disease if you do fall ill.
The WHO advice is to:
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Trudeau’s wife has it. He wont be tested. He is going to quarantine
“Coronavirus vs. swine flu (H1N1) – 2009-2010”
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A lot of people are making the same mistake of claiming the first outbreak of Swine Flu was in 2009. Make me wonder if they actually spent any time at all researching (even a cursory Google search would be helpful) or if they are just copying someone else’s spiel to recycle. I remember it’s first time around in 1976.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_swine_flu_outbreak
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtQ-DX7UjXc&feature=youtu.be&t=59
Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro is also being tested as one of his officials tested positive.
good post. thanks.
This is the one I am waiting for. I was hoping we would see something tonight
In my book, the media and Democrats have created pandamonia to throw the economy into turmoil to bring Trump down. There wasn’t this type of hysteria during H1N1, Swine Flu, Ebola, MERS, SARS, etc. but then Trump wasn’t president at those times.
Hopefully they (whoever they are) will have shot for it by next Autumn.
Actually the first swine flu was the 1918 Spanish Flu
Odds are you will live.
“Actually the first swine flu was the 1918 Spanish Flu”
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I think the experts may still be debating that. I believe it has something to do with which way the virus went - pig 2 man or man 2 pig or something along that line.
There’s long article on the CDC website about the 1918 flu.
“The Deadliest Flu: The Complete Story of the Discovery and Reconstruction of the 1918 Pandemic Virus”
It’s undated but appears to have been written for the 100 year anniversary. Anyway it contains this:
“In 1918, the world population was 1.8 billion people. One hundred years later, the world population has grown to 7.6 billion people in 2018.3 As human populations have risen, so have swine and poultry populations as a means to feed them. This expanded number of hosts provides increased opportunities for novel influenza viruses from birds and pigs to spread, evolve and infect people. Global movement of people and goods also has increased, allowing the latest disease threat to be an international plane flight away. Due to the mobility and expansion of human populations, even once exotic pathogens, like Ebola, which previously affected only people living in remote villages of the African jungle, now have managed to find their way into urban areas, causing large outbreaks.
If a severe pandemic, such as occurred in 1918 happened today, it would still likely overwhelm health care infrastructure, both in the United States and across the world. Hospitals and doctors’ offices would struggle to meet demand from the number of patients requiring care. Such an event would require significant increases in the manufacture, distribution and supply of medications, products and life-saving medical equipment, such as mechanical ventilators. Businesses and schools would struggle to function, and even basic services like trash pickup and waste removal could be impacted.
The best defense against the flu continues to be a flu vaccine, but even today, flu vaccines face a number of challenges. One challenge is that flu vaccines are often moderately effective, even when well matched to circulating viruses. But perhaps the biggest challenge is the time required to manufacture a new vaccine against an emerging pandemic threat. Generally, it has taken about 20 weeks to select and manufacture a new vaccine.”
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/reconstruction-1918-virus.html
It should be noted that coronaviruses can cause what amounts to a common cold, similar to rhinovirus infection. That’s why Tom Hanks and his wife Rita Wilson thought they were just suffering from a cold when they were infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
the biggest difference is that the dem/media complex has been trying desperately to politicize this virus and are actually hoping for mass death and economic collapse. I don’t recall any of the others to have been politicized.
Thanls, that’s interesting.
“The pandemic lowered the average life expectancy in the United States by more than 12 years.”
Whoaa!
An excellent read for all of the pearl-clutchers here at FR. Thanks for posting.
12 years! That is truly astonishing.
Did they ever actually say they were tested for Covid-19, or just for "coronavirus"?
I rad articles like this and try to figure out why people lie so much. According to this article, with the figures more relevant to our current situation dating in 2017-18, it indicates that flu is here every year and past virus appearances are far more dangerous that C-19.
Putting out articles from on line colleges partnered with Wikipedia, known to blow things out of proportion or just flat lie, is a further disgrace to the journalist industry.
Besides, they still can’t identify over 30 viruses that already exist. But if we over-react, the sky will fall.
rwood
Yup, and there are a lot of them. They thrive on hysterics, melodrama and panic.
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