Posted on 05/29/2019 2:07:50 PM PDT by BenLurkin
The physics-heavy analyses of two databases....detected a point in time where a newly initiated earthquake transitions into a slip pulse where mechanical properties point to magnitude.
Melgar and Hayes also were able to identify similar trends in European and Chinese databases. Their study was detailed in the May 29 issue of the online journal Science Advances.
Overall, the databases contain data from more than 3,000 earthquakes. Consistent indicators of displacement acceleration that surface between 10-20 seconds into events were seen for 12 major earthquakes occurring in 2003-2016.
GPS monitors exist along many land-based faults, including at ground locations near the 620-mile-long Cascadia subduction zone off the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast, but their use is not yet common in real time hazard monitoring. GPS data shows initial movement in centimeters, Melgar said.
Japan already is laying fiber optic cable off its shores to boost its early warning capabilities, but such work is expensive and would be more so for installing the technology on the seafloor above the Cascadia fault zone, Meglar noted.
Melgar and Hayes came across the slip-pulse timing while scouring USGS databases for components that they could code into simulations to forecast what a magnitude 9 rupture of the Cascadia subduction zone would look like.
The subduction zone, which hasn't had a massive lengthwise earthquake since 1700, is where the Juan de Fuca ocean plate dips under the North American continental plate. The fault stretches just offshore of northern Vancouver Island to Cape Mendocino in northern California
(Excerpt) Read more at phys.org ...
Amazing.
I hope they are continuing to study this and perhaps they will learn enough to be able to implement some warning system.
...the databases contain data from more than 3,000 earthquakes. Consistent indicators of displacement acceleration that surface between 10-20 seconds into events were seen for 12 major earthquakes occurring in 2003-2016.
See, now, *that's* hilarious.
The title is kind of misleading. It sounded like scientists have found indications of an imminent mega-quake, but the article is more general than that, just talking about advances in earthquake monitoring.
Artificial intelligence would be really good at finding out stuff like this.
If the much feared “megaquake” strikes California or if Yosemite blows up, early warning won’t do much good.
20 seconds isn’t enough time to place a Vegas bet on the odds of an earthquake happening.
Early warning gives you a chance to squat under a table, put your head between your legs, and kiss your ash goodbye.
Don’t sell AI short, man.
They can place stock market trades in that kind of time frame.
Impressive bouncing.
Rubble. Bouncing rubble!
This kind of scare tactic Bullshit has been spouted out for a long, long time.
Betty’s sister??
You mean Yellowstone!
I hope not Yosemite. I live to close.
Did you see the earthquake?............
Since the Indonesia 9.0, there have been major earthquakes on nearly active fault surrounding the Ring of Fire other than:
Cascadia Subduction Zone
California Hayward-San Andres.
The quake in Napa-Sonoma and activity in The Geysers area is a small indicator of something building.
Still no real indicators of anything serious but there wasn’t any before ‘89 or Northridge.
Personally, I’m thinking Cascadia is next
These results are nothing.
I have been successful 100% of the time in predicting the lottery numbers the day after each draw.
Booya! Beat that you brainiacs. :)
Not only .that. The most recent winning numbers have an equal chance of being the next winning numbers to any other combination
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