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Do Not Trust the Polls - October Surprise Thread #1
The Vanity Post | October 1st, 2016 | 1Eagle

Posted on 10/01/2016 8:26:40 PM PDT by 1-Eagle

As I warned you prior to the 1st Debate, there was good reason to be cautious about putting any trust in the polls. Herman Cain has been hammering this topic very efficiently, whereas Sean Hannity actually said he trusts the polls.

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A 'SCIENTIFIC POLL'. The average student having done well in any college level Statistics Class can tell you that. The 'margins of error' were blown out of the water so badly in 1996, they they can no longer be said to have any value. Who determines the margin of error? By what means do they calculate it? And why did 99% of polls in 1996 not only miss the mark but were completely outside their margins of error? A poll of even 20,000 people cannot be said to be accurate in a country of over 300 MILLION.

In my last post I warned you that the goal post would be lowered for Hillary, and with the excuse of any kind of win, albeit a purely debate win by scoring the most "points", or however, that this would unleash the skewed poll results.

But first we have to be properly brainwashed so as to accept this odd result, and so Hillary had to unleash what was apparently a pre-meditated crime of character assassination on Trump (ie: the gangster gal who was insulted) and having the moderator set up to be a "fact checker" to pummel Trump in the 2nd half of the debate to put him on the defensive. I'm sure Crowley must have been impressed. Here in America, Free Speech no longer exists on College Campuses or in Political Debates.

By the numbers, it went sort of like this:
1) Clinton Camp sets the stage with "War on Women" narrative. It never made any sense until now.
2) Clinton Camp sets stage by baiting Trump with Kelly's tough questions in line with "war on women"
3) Clinton Camp publicizes request for moderator to become a "fact checker"
4) Clinton sends signal for "fact checker moderator" to activate "OK, Fact Checker get ready to work on this one!" Afterwards, moderator starts hammering Trump.
5) Hillary sets off the "insulted woman" narrative with a last minute mention, followed by planned articles to activate the smear (character assassination) of Trump.
6) As days go by, we start getting articles like this one in the New York Times (click NYT link for the article).

All this just to make it seem reasonable for Hillarys numbers to go up when she is clearly not exciting anybody and she was just photographed weeks ago going into convulsions on the street. Something drastic had to happen, some shock and awe, some October surprise, something really big to get the bad news off the Front Page.

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TOPICS: Business/Economy; Chit/Chat; Conspiracy; Word For The Day
KEYWORDS: astroturf; clinton; election; polls; propaganda; trump; voting
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So get ready for the skewed poll numbers, here they come! Hillary will be Coronated in the press long before Novermber 8th, just wait and see. In Clinton vs Dole, the polls were so skewed by more than 20%, and Bernard Shaw of CNN proclaimed in June (paraphrased) 'No sitting president has ever lost while be this far ahead in the polls at this time'. According to the press, it didn't seem like there was a need for anyone to bother voting for Dole, he was going to lose by a landslide. What happened though is that it was much closer than that, I think he lost by 8%. A UK journalist surmised that if the conservatives had not been so suppressed by all of those skewed poll numbers and all the slanted 'journalists' who reported them ad nauseum 24/7, Dole might have even won.
1 posted on 10/01/2016 8:26:41 PM PDT by 1-Eagle
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To: 1-Eagle

This is one time when believing the polls you like and ignoring the ones you don’t is quite valid. When they show her ahead, they must be manufactured. When they show him ahead, they would never report it if they didn’t absolutely have to.


2 posted on 10/01/2016 8:31:21 PM PDT by ichabod1 (Make America Normal Again)
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To: 1-Eagle

Amen, the polls are tools for rigging the system. Show Trump ahead to get us all excited, and then as election day nears, doggoned if ole Hillary doesn’t come up on the inside and take the lead just in time to demoralize us.

Do not trust the polls any more than you’d trust Algores global warming BS. Both are propaganda based on lies.


3 posted on 10/01/2016 8:31:43 PM PDT by bigbob (The Hillary indictment will have to come from us.)
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To: 1-Eagle

bttt


4 posted on 10/01/2016 8:32:09 PM PDT by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either satire or opinion. Or both.)
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To: 1-Eagle

As long as we NEVER GET COMPLACENT!!!


5 posted on 10/01/2016 8:34:24 PM PDT by Dr. Pritchett
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To: 1-Eagle

From what I’ve seen, even with the skewed polls her numbers aren’t that good. There’s no reason for anyone to be remotely demoralized at the moment.


6 posted on 10/01/2016 8:37:12 PM PDT by sam_whiskey (Peace through Strength)
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To: All

I don’t trust any the polls after Obama beat out Mitt Romney . And Hillary has not pulled out of Ohio. Her TV ads here in Columbus are running nonstop


7 posted on 10/01/2016 8:38:11 PM PDT by CharlotteVRWC
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To: 1-Eagle

I agree. Do not trust the polls.

Just be sure to vote for Trump in the actual election.

The purpose of many published polls is exactly to discourage Trump supporters from voting in the election.


8 posted on 10/01/2016 8:43:21 PM PDT by Innovative ("Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing." -- Vince Lombardi)
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To: 1-Eagle

A fine message for members of this forum, but beyond that, no one is listening. Figure out how to deal with a decent portion of the electorate who forms their political opinions mainly on the snippets of news they get from the MSM.


9 posted on 10/01/2016 8:44:00 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: CharlotteVRWC

I live in the Columbus area also and Hillary is alive and well. Just do a drive thru of German Village, Short North, and Victorian Village........


10 posted on 10/01/2016 8:45:42 PM PDT by Toespi
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To: 1-Eagle
they have to have her leading in the polls to help them fix/steal the voting numbers
11 posted on 10/01/2016 8:46:46 PM PDT by Chode (You Owe Them Nothing - Not Respect, Not Loyalty, Not Obedience, NOTHING! ich bin ein Deplorable...)
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To: 1-Eagle

Well she’s basically scrapped her campaigning now so they might just as well say she’s ‘suspended her campaign’..which is what that is.

She’s never actually campaigned throughout so you can’t really call it a run.......more a meet and greet when she did so..or did private party fundraisers with her wealthy donors.

So what exactly are they basing any poll numbers about her anyway???.......it’s not like she’s doing anything to change the downward slope.....and one debate isn’t going to do it.


12 posted on 10/01/2016 8:47:07 PM PDT by caww
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To: 1-Eagle
The purple lipped prince gave the "tell" a few months back when he responded to Donald's comments about the votes being rigged. He replied, and I paraphrase, "If Trump is leading by 10 or 12% in the polls right before the election and loses, he can say something about voter fraud."

The polls will remain in an almost virtual tie until election only so that the dems can manufacture the votes they need to win....and claim, "Oh, but my golly...he almost got her, but the American people spoke by voting."

So easy to see...so sickening.

13 posted on 10/01/2016 8:48:09 PM PDT by IrishPennant (Excuse me...Here's your nose. I found it in my business....again!)
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To: CatOwner

The only person that answers a landline these days is a poor person. How can any phone poll be accurate?


14 posted on 10/01/2016 8:49:42 PM PDT by FreeperCell
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To: sam_whiskey

Well heck she couldn’t bring in any crowds sick or otherwise since she started......Bernie pulled them all and Trump...she never even got close. So to do rally’s she has to have something else to draw people to them and even then they’re not showing up....

I think this is why she’s not been having rally’s .....it’s a huge mark against her when nobody shows. And further that happening just causes her illness to rile itself as well.

Thus they pulled out Obama and Michele, Biden and Bill to draw ‘their crowds’ so it at least looks like somebody in the “family” can make it look like someone is running!


15 posted on 10/01/2016 8:54:04 PM PDT by caww
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To: FreeperCell

....”The only person that answers a landline these days is a poor person”....

That’s not true by any means.....I have a landline and love it!


16 posted on 10/01/2016 8:56:34 PM PDT by caww
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To: 1-Eagle

A poll is a sample. The accuracy of the polling depends on how closely the sample matches the population. It was much easier to obtain a decent sample back in the days when we all sat by our landline phones with no caller ID to screen calls and we all believed what Walter Cronkite told us.

The polls as issued by the media are not accurate, nor are they meant to be. They are part of the narrative, just another tool in the propagandist’s tool box. I’m sure that both parties have private polling that gives them better information, but I’m not sure that they can really get a representative sample anymore. Too many people have given up landline phones, and those of us that still have them often screen out unknown numbers. So the pollsters are getting a sample of the population that still has a landline and is willing to answer when the caller ID says it’s nobody we know, rather than a sample of the whole population.


17 posted on 10/01/2016 9:00:14 PM PDT by Some Fat Guy in L.A. (Still bitterly clinging to rational thought despite it's unfashionability)
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To: ichabod1

The polls you like and trust today will turn into Lucy and yank the football out from in front of your Charlie Brown by November 8th. Pollsters don’t do this because they love calling people, they do this for the $$$$$. There are so many ways to bribe a pollster that you have never even dreamed of, and if there is anything lobbyist infested DC knows how to do, it knows how to slide some cash under a counter. Please be careful not to trust the polls and go vote no matter what the media is saying on November 8th.


18 posted on 10/01/2016 9:01:44 PM PDT by 1-Eagle (B.Franklin: "A Republic...if you can keep it." Let us all resolve to be Keepers!)
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To: bigbob

Well said, Bigbob, well said. Polls are too easily used as propaganda and we MUST guard ourselves, our families, our neighbors, or co-workers and everybody Against Putting Any Trust in the Polls. Pollsters are only in it for the $$$$$, and Hillary has raised tons of $$$$$$ for this very reason. Hillary is “buying the stairway to Heaven.”


19 posted on 10/01/2016 9:03:37 PM PDT by 1-Eagle (B.Franklin: "A Republic...if you can keep it." Let us all resolve to be Keepers!)
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To: FreeperCell
The only person that answers a landline these days is a poor person. How can any phone poll be accurate?

In order for any scientific poll ( that uses small sample sizes - at least 1500 ) to be accurate, the sample has to be TRULY RANDOM. This is where these polls fail. If they are just polling landlines then it is not truly random of the population as a whole. The poll results should say "Of those polled with landlines, the results are such and such ". Even if cell phones and landlines are polled, it is still not truly random. Many people don't answer calls on cellphones that they do not know who the caller is. Even if it is answered , many people hang up ( with the IRS targeting conservatives, I can see where a lot of conservatives would not want to answer a poll ). So any of these poll results should start out with " Of those who agreed to be polled". Once again, not a truly random sample.

20 posted on 10/01/2016 9:05:14 PM PDT by TheCipher (Suppose you were an idiot and suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself. Mark Twain)
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