Posted on 08/30/2016 9:48:20 AM PDT by Signalman
Donald Trump can, and will, beat Hillary Clinton and become President of the United States.
As much as the media and political elite have already written off Trump, the evidence shows that Trump is on track to win this fall because of his popular message, his record of victory in the Republican primaries, and Hillary’s unpopularity.
First of all, don’t believe the media spin. This race is tight.
The pundits and the media elites can’t fathom the idea that a guy like Donald Trump could be our next President. They are presented on a daily basis dishonesty from Hillary Clinton, and they can see that Hillary Clinton has a difficult time connecting with average Americans. They prefer to give disproportional weight to the Clinton campaign cash advantage and the post Democratic National Convention bounce.
Yet this election is far from over.
In 1988, Michael Dukakis rolled out of his convention with a bigger lead than Hillary Clinton. However, history tells us that Dukakis never made it to the White House.
New polls conducted by Emerson College show Trump closing the gap in the “Rust Belt” states of Michigan and Pennsylvania, with him tied in the swing state of Ohio. The L.A. Times tracking poll has Trump with a very small national lead over Clinton and a recent UPI poll has Trump leading Clinton. The polls indicate that this race is now close both nationally and in swing states.
And what about the possibility that the polling models are under-reporting Trump’s level of support. Hillary Clinton has rolled out arguments linking Trump to racist elements in society. Is it possible that people are scared to tell a pollster that they support Trump for fear of being tagged a racist?
Trump’s anti-establishment message has successfully tapped into the American public’s distrust of Washington elites. You can quibble with many of his controversial statements that have hurt his campaign and some of his perceived policy wobbles, but his overarching message that the American middle class is being hurt by government policies that favor the Washington elites has struck a chord. As he hammers leaders of both parties in Washington for incompetence and self-dealing, the American people applaud. And they can see Hillary Clinton as the embodiment of all that they hate about the federal government.
The anti-establishment message helped Trump to defeat the best and brightest that the Republican Party had to offer. Trump used debates to dispatch them one-by-one. Let’s not forget that, although we are already worn out by this election cycle, the American people will be watching the debates in record numbers.
Debates can be a game changer. There are three presidential debates to go, with the first not happening until late September. Let’s not forget the last election cycle when Mitt Romney won the first debate in Denver, CO, in the fall of 2012. President Obama was off his game and it almost cost him the election. Gallup reported that Romney went from a 5% deficit to a tie in the three days after that debate.
Trump is an excellent debater and much more of a scrapper than Romney. Trump beat Jeb Bush, both the son and brother of Presidents, in debates. Trump beat three very strong anti-establishment Senators vying for the nomination. We tend to forget that Trump gathered up the most votes of any Republican primary candidate in history, with over 13 million votes against a strong lineup of candidates. Trump’s debate performance and his ability to dispatch some very skilled politicians should not be underestimated.
Then there is the biggest factor in favor of Donald Trump — he is not Hillary Clinton.
If he can make the focus of the campaign a referendum on Hillary Clinton’s record of failure, he will win. The electorate is concerned with Hillary Clinton’s alleged “pay-to-play” scandal where Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been accused of granting special access to the State Department to big donors of the Clinton Foundation. Clinton has been accused of telling different stories about the cause of Benghazi and the reasons why she set up a personal server while Secretary of State. The American people recognize that Hillary has trouble telling the truth.
A glance at her favorability ratings will make most Democratic pollsters shudder. Hillary’s favorable v. unfavorable numbers are abysmal. Clinton is 15% more unfavorable than favorable in Gallup, 14% in Monmouth, 12% in Quinnipiac, and 17% in Bloomberg according to Real Clear Politics collected data. Hillary’s trust deficit may be too much to overcome.
Trump’s anti-establishment message, his romp in the Republican primaries, and Hillary’s multiple scandals all point to a Donald Trump victory this fall.
Brian Darling is a former Sr. Communications Director and Counsel for Sen. Rand Paul. Follow him on Twitter @BrianHDarling.
If Mr. Trump gets at least 10-20% of the African American vote, he wins the election.
I’m not saying I disagree with the author, but this is the dumbest thing ever.
“Is it possible that people are scared to tell a pollster that they support Trump for fear of being tagged a racist?”
And just how would that happen? Many of these phone surveys are anonymous. Why would someone lie over the phone? They’re worried the pollster is going to out them on TV? Social media? “John Smith is voting for Trump and he’s a racist!!”
Seriously?
We out here are LEGION and we'll roll over them election day like the Indonesian Tsunami. Faith, perseverance and conviction will out.
Google: “The Bradley Effect”
I also think the Liberal HuffPo guy had a good point.
Trump is good on TV. She is not.
Done. That doesn’t really shed any light. It only makes sense if these polls are done face to face where the voter can see the race of the pollster or within earshot of someone else. If someone calls my house, I would tell them the truth. I don’t know why I would ever fear being labeled as racist or anything else. Where’s the risk is all I’m saying?
Trump wins this election due to a larger turnout of voters that have not voted in a long time, or never voted.
This is the vote that I believe we are not seeing in any polls.
Just an example of a normal turnout...
36 % democrat
30 % independent
34 % republican
I believe looking at the primaries and the Florida early voting we will see this... And I am generous with the democrats giving them a +2 which I do not think they will get.
31 % democrat
27 % independent
29 % republican
10 % never voted, or very long time virtually all Trump
This is a 10% swing to Trump and a big win for him.
Never underestimate Trump. The man had a TV show and spin-offs run from 2008 until now, virtually unheard of in television. He’s not some b-rate politician; he’s a master manipulator of media.
In Florida, Republican primary turnout went from 1.7M to 2.4M, 2008 to 2016. It’s a much bigger wave than people estimate.
Yep. This is exactly why he’s going to win.
The more hilLIARy appears on TV the more her poll numbers go down.
This even has a name - The Dick Morris Rule- ater the guy who first discovered it.
Yes, seriously! It’s naive to think people don’t lie to pollsters. Especially because of all that labeling that’s taken place in this election.
Democrats claim “No More Bushes! No Dynasties!”, then go an run another Clintoon.
I believe that Trump wave will be a tsunami.
If the race is tight she will win. They’ll manipulate the voting machines and then blame it on the Russians.
Quote: “If Mr. Trump gets at least 10-20% of the African American vote, he wins the election.”
I doubt he does but bet he wins anyway. The fact that he is courting the black vote is scaring the hell out of the democrats and making them defend on turf that they normally take for granted.
Yeah, you can squeeze by with 100,000 votes per state if you’re a relatively unoffensive Obama against Mitt, but primary voter increases have been anywhere from 500,000 to 1M per state with Trump.
A Hillary win is not happening without 200% registered voters voting.
It is a conservative fantasy. It once may have existed, but no longer does, except in the feverish imagination of posters here every 4 years....
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