#1!
Posted on 11/04/2015 2:43:52 PM PST by conservativejoy
Lot of fanfare about this among the politerati on Twitter (politertwitterati?), who’ve waited four months for hard evidence that Trumpmanias begun to cool. One national poll showing Carson ahead of Trump can be dismissed as a fluke; two showing Carson ahead are interesting, but not quite convincing. An average of four polls showing Carson in the lead, though, is officially fodder for 'trend!' storylines.
What a long, strange trip its been.
Youve got at least three reasons to shrug at that if you’re a Trump fan. One: Carsons not going to be the nominee. He might win Iowa but even that seems hard to believe given what a smart, tight ship Ted Cruzs campaign is running. It could be that Trump has reached his ceiling of support but thats enough to win some of the early states if his competition divides the rest of the electorate among themselves evenly enough.
Two: Matt Bevins shocking landslide last night after trailing in the polls for months gives you a reason (maybe not a compelling reason, but a reason) to think that polls are chronically underestimating outsider candidates like him and Trump. None other than the head of the DGA credited 'Trumpmania' with Bevins surprising win. It may be that both in Kentucky and nationally, theres a critical mass of right leaning 'silent majority' voters whom pollsters don’t expect to turn out on election night but then do, rendering all the polls of 'likely voters' meaningless. The question is, if the extent of Trump’s support is being underestimated, might the extent of Carson’s support be underestimated too?
Three: When push comes to shove, the national polls dont matter. Theyre interesting as a barometer of Republican sentiment generally, but only the state polls mean anything as predictors of individual caucuses and primaries. And Trumps lead in New Hampshire, his strongest early state, is steady as she goes.
Or is it?
The survey of 400 likely [NH] GOP primary voters, conducted Thursday through Sunday, puts Trump at the top with 18 percent support. Carson is on his heels at 16 percent , within the poll’s 4.9 percent margin of error.
Florida Sen. Rubios support more than quintupled, from 2 percent to 11 percent, while New Jersey Gov. Christies support rose from 2 percent to 8 percent. Both candidates are also seeing big jumps in their favorability ratings.
'Underneath there has been some movement,' Koczela said. 'Both Marco Rubio and Chris Christie were perceived as doing well in the debate and have seen their numbers climb substantially from where they were in September.'
'There’s considerable potential now for Rubio to start to clinch the deal,' Scala said, adding that the poll shows Rubio getting high marks from both traditional and tea party-type conservatives.
Rubios favorable rating in the poll jumped 10 points since September to 56 percent. Chris Christies favorable rating jumped 12 points to 51 percent. Trump: Down three points, now sitting on an even 42/42 split. Thats a bad number for his big state. When Republicans were asked who they thought won the debate last week, Rubio also won that handily 27 percent versus 20 percent for Cruz and 13 percent for Christie. Trump finished with just seven percent, tied with Carly Fiorina. But Trump fans dont have to sweat this poll too much either. For one thing, this data bodes well for him:
New Hampshirites are trending towards revolution. Rubio, for all his gifts, is every inch a Bush/McCain politician. He’s not the guy youd bet on when the electorates in 'burn it all down' mode. Beyond that, though, theres good reason to think this polls an outlier. Eighteen percent is the lowest level of support detected for Trump in New Hampshire in three months. The latest Monmouth poll, which was taken over the same post-debate period as this one (and was also a poll of likely voters), had him comfortably ahead of Carson by 10 points at 26 percent. Other recent (but pre-debate) polls have had him at 28 and even 38 percent. And the last WBUR poll in September also had him a bit lower than most other polls did at the time, suggesting some persistent difference in their methodology. Until we see a dent to his polling average in NH, which has him 14 points ahead of the field, its probably best to treat this as noise.
don’t really trust polls at this time. too much of the eGOP and their lackeys trying to oust trump that i think they’ve bent the numbers.
BS meter pegged at maximum.
My concern about Dr. Carson is regarding his relationship with Louis Farrakan. Dr. Carson has related that they are FRIENDS.
I find that VERY disturbing .. and it’s keeping me from joining the crowd re Carson as a Presidential candidate.
Ok so the GOPe gave the media some more fake polls and paid them to run all this crap on the news....there are a lot of people out there that are not as informed as we are and believe this crap...
So, Carson is their ‘lollipop’ of the week, and Rubio is coming up right behind Carson...he will be the next ‘lollipop’ to be sucked on...so where does that put Trump?
ON TOP of the whole election, right where he should be!!!
GO.TRUMP.GO!!!
It just means that Trump has to fight to win. No one who supports Trump (and I do) expects it to be a Trump coronation.
“BS meter pegged at maximum.”
I agree. The problem is the averaging the agenda driven media polls in the mix.
I know I will get flamed for it, but did you trust the polls when Trump was ahead?
And FYI I am a Cruz supporter who wishes Cruz could be where Trump is right now in the polls. Trump is beating Cruz in every single poll I had seen since he announced, and in some states like New Hampshire, Trump is still polling over four times what Cruz is getting.
Bottom line, Carson is surging, I am not a Carson fan either, but by December Carson will probably already be on his way down.
Kentucky polls had Bevin losing by 5%. He won by 8%.
Yet the word doesn't get out on this. Amazing how the press is able to sur"press" info they want to keep under wraps.
Second, all the post debate state polls show Trump regaining momentum, esp. MN, FL, and IA. (Two IA polls have Trump back in front).
I was a little concerned when 2 IA and a WI and a TX poll all showed Carson up, but since then we have had at least four state polls with Trump up considerably (FL, MN, GA, and one NH poll) so I think RCP is just getting the tail of the now-receding Carson surge.
Agree. BS as usual.
Trump is currently finishing off Rubio which won’t take long and then he will turn his scrutiny to Carson who is a deeply flawed candidate on all levels. He just has had no scrutiny up until now. The only real challenger left if you even want to call him that is Rubio. After its all said and done it will be Trump by a mile with Cruz distant second.
90% of the current polls show Trump holding a comfortable lead. The MSM in a predictable fashion are using only a couple of outlier polls to try to take Trump out of it. Not going to happen.
Remind me what the polls said about new KY Governor.
HotAir.com reports Hot Air poll results.
Sorry with a margin of error of almost 5% this poll has little credibility.
Anything to distort the reality out there.
All this really tells me is that Trump is probably higher than anyone wants to admit.
There are lies
There are damned lies
Then there is statistics
where the truth can be manipulated into anything you want
#1!
It’s obvious that even with all their influence, the media can’t control all 50 states.
Trump’s on tope in states, in two out of three national polls, has crowds of thousands as opposed to tiny turnouts for other candidates.
I’m going to listen to Dom Giordano that we’re winning. He said today not to let these people discourage us and they will try. btw, loved the SNL promos with Trump.
In 2014 China bought a controlling interest in RCP.
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