idled ships, cheaper fuel... a situation like this could presage a big economic problem. The devil is in the details.
anyhow the economy doesn’t look so much now to be swooning as to be slowly suffocating.
World Depression. They can not hide it much longer.
predicting ship supply and commodities demand has a pretty high margin of error, at the same time remembering how sensitive the BDI is to small mismatches due to the inelastic nature of its underlying supply and demand, and you quickly realize that predicting the BDI is a fool's game and also that it is not a reliable forward indicator given that it is a spot rate index in a market where both sides are basically forced to close a deal due to high fixed costs. The BDI is measure of supply/demand mismatch at the moment, and can change drastically on a dime. Its little else beyond this.
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-cost-of-global-shipping-is-a-lousy-economic-indicator-2009-5#ixzz3QJJqeXpc
Who needs stuff? Just buy apps and consume streaming entertainment.
The automated systems used to trade in the financial markets allow some to manipulate prices and pull out huge sums of money in the gaps before the smaller investors get a chance to even make a trade. And thus the market is not based on a broad trading market but instead based on how an elite few have gamed that market. Of course this element has always been around with insider trading and such BUT now the speed and which this system gaming works makes the whole system volatile to the point that you can get a flash crash and literally nobody really knows why it happened and it panics everyone and then the sell orders flourish for no reason except an algorithm gave a positive indicator to sell and it raced through the system and expanded exponentially.
I fear this system flaw may be what finally takes the dollar down. And there is no one in the whole damn circus who knows how to make it stop.
There have been many economic/market events over the years, both good and bad.
What’s this index’s track record in predicting those?
Indeed, the revelations about IRS abuse has opened a LOT of eyes in Washington, DC, and we may be on the verge of the biggest reforms in Federal tax laws since the passage of the 16th Amendment itself.
It seems to me there’s been a total disconnect of the stock market from economic reality for a very long time, namely due to essentially unlimited Fed money printing, and as long as the money printing continues unabated, the stock market is likely to stay propped up no matter what happens, at least until the merry-go-round comes to a screeching halt and the whole shebang collapses because the money becomes worthless.
The number of years it will take for that to happen is unknown because the U.S. is by far the richest nation in history to debase its currency, and mostly all we have for examples are poor, non-productive countries and countries with limited populations, limited wealth, and limited production from the past.
I think the best indicator of a downturn is an inverted yield curve.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php
Europe is slipping, China has slipped. Oil shipments to North America have declined. Shipments in general to Europe and China have declined. It’s an indicator of a slump but we were the driver in 2008, whereas we’re not in 2015. Does this mean it means nothing domestically? Wouldn’t bet on that. Weird times we’re living in, economically. Far too interconnected for my comfort.
BS. The US economy is in recovery, Greece is booming, China will regain 10% GDP and markets only go straight up. And besides that Apple just had a blow out water and Obama said austerity kills.