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How a solar storm two years ago nearly caused a catastrophe on Earth
WaPo ^ | July 23 at 3:48 pm | Jason Samenow

Posted on 07/24/2014 10:11:00 AM PDT by BenLurkin

On July 23, 2012, the sun unleashed two massive clouds of plasma that barely missed a catastrophic encounter with the Earth’s atmosphere. These plasma clouds, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), comprised a solar storm thought to be the most powerful in at least 150 years.

“If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces,” physicist Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado tells NASA.

...

Analysts believe that a direct hit … could cause widespread power blackouts, disabling everything that plugs into a wall socket. Most people wouldn’t even be able to flush their toilet because urban water supplies largely rely on electric pumps.

. . .

According to a study by the National Academy of Sciences, the total economic impact could exceed $2 trillion or 20 times greater than the costs of a Hurricane Katrina. Multi-ton transformers damaged by such a storm might take years to repair.

CWG’s Steve Tracton put it this way in his frightening overview of the risks of a severe solar storm: “The consequences could be devastating for commerce, transportation, agriculture and food stocks, fuel and water supplies, human health and medical facilities, national security, and daily life in general.”

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Science
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To: dfwgator

Connections was a great series. It was that first episode that got be thinking and directed long term.


61 posted on 07/24/2014 4:39:11 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: PA Engineer

“Connections was a great series. It was that first episode that got me thinking and directed long term.”

Me too. I think it made a lot of people start thinking like a prepper. That, and Foxfire books and the Whole Earth Catalog...


62 posted on 07/24/2014 4:45:35 PM PDT by Pelham (California, what happens when you won't deport illegals)
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To: cripplecreek
Boise isn't what I would call a small town or a big city, it's in between. While the water, gas and power are running, while the garbage is being picked up, while the gas pumps are operating and while the grocery stores are open and stocked, it's a very peaceful town, full of nice, salt of the Earth people. In 2012 we had only one murder, in a town of 200K people...and it wasn't the first time.

However, after a few days of none of the above, I expect those nice, peaceful, meek people will become feral animals. I hope I don't have to shoot anyone I know.

Scouts Out! Cavalry Ho!

63 posted on 07/24/2014 4:51:04 PM PDT by wku man (Veterans, it's up to us to save the Republic...let's roll.)
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To: Kartographer
I have been assured by a number of knowledgeable FReepers that there is no such thing as EMP or CME its all just a gimmick to raise money for studies.

I guess those folks would deny, then, that the Carrington Event of 1859 never took place.

Something evil this way comes.

64 posted on 07/24/2014 4:53:01 PM PDT by The Duke ("Forgiveness is between them and God, it's my job to arrange the meeting.")
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To: wku man
Pretty much the extent of my vast metropolis.

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65 posted on 07/24/2014 4:57:20 PM PDT by cripplecreek (Remember the River Raisin.)
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To: cripplecreek

They talk about it as southern hospitality but its really flyover hospitality that can be found pretty much anywhere a few miles off the interstate.


Yep. We like our Western hospitality here, like elsewhere.


66 posted on 07/24/2014 5:11:05 PM PDT by laplata (Liberals don't get it .... their minds are diseased.)
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To: theBuckwheat

Very good explanation. You are completely correct.

The thing about a CME is that we would have warning that it is coming. Power grid operators understand, for the most part, where they are vulnerable.

If an 1860 type event happened today - one sure-fire way to deal with it is to shut the grid down for a day, maybe two.

Then restart it over the next few days. It would be a huge pain in the butt, but the grid would not incur any damage from the event.

It’s the “not quite as bad” events that will cause the most damage - because operators may not do the right things to protect the grid.

We know how to completely protect it from a CME event (several ways, actually) - it just takes money


67 posted on 07/24/2014 5:37:34 PM PDT by RFEngineer
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To: The Cajun

“No way of telling what a CME induced power spike would, in reality, do.”

It’s not really a “spike” - it may be 30V/km in induced voltage. It is “quasi-dc” and it will build slowly.

The danger is these DC currents running through transformers - causing half-cycle saturation.

An unloaded grid would be impacted very little. Better yet, shut down the grid.


68 posted on 07/24/2014 5:47:57 PM PDT by RFEngineer
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To: RFEngineer
It’s not really a “spike” - it may be 30V/km in induced voltage. It is “quasi-dc” and it will build slowly.

Wouldn't there be some *bleed off* to ground if it is a slow building quasi-DC pulse, thus minimizing the build up?
Duration of such a DC pulse and the amount of current available from it would determine if the transformers would saturate, in my way of thinking.
If there was no load (ground path) on the power line (big a$$ inductor), wouldn't the pulse continue to rise?

Disconnecting and shutting down would be the best solution however.

69 posted on 07/24/2014 7:00:07 PM PDT by The Cajun (Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin, Mark Levin, Mike Lee, Louie Gohmert....Nuff said.)
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To: BenLurkin
Most people wouldn’t even be able to flush their toilet...

We live in a society in which most people couldn't flush a toilet if you gave them a five gallon bucket of water with instructions on the bottom.

70 posted on 07/24/2014 7:21:24 PM PDT by gundog (Help us, Nairobi-Wan Kenobi...you're our only hope.)
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To: BenLurkin
I predict that the Millenials will turn into cold blooded murderers.

And murderees.

71 posted on 07/24/2014 7:22:59 PM PDT by gundog (Help us, Nairobi-Wan Kenobi...you're our only hope.)
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To: gundog

I’ve got a 5 gallon bucket and a lake 50 feet away. I keep an open hole in the ice all winter just in case the pipes freeze and I need to flush toilets.


72 posted on 07/24/2014 7:28:51 PM PDT by cripplecreek (Remember the River Raisin.)
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To: gundog
most people couldn't flush a toilet if you gave them a five gallon bucket of water with instructions on the bottom...

Well, they would know how, but they'd usually be out of water.

73 posted on 07/24/2014 7:53:59 PM PDT by C210N (When people fear government there is tyranny; when government fears people there is liberty)
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To: djf

Why today but not back then?


74 posted on 07/24/2014 7:59:32 PM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (Pubbies = national collectivists; Dems = international collectivists; We need a second party!)
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To: cripplecreek

Great post, cc!


75 posted on 07/24/2014 8:13:27 PM PDT by kiryandil (making the jests that some FReepers aren't allowed to...)
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To: Kartographer
One told me if there was such a thing as EMP because the lightening is the same thing and it doesn’t knock all the power out.

Betcha Nikola Tesla would have some interesting comments on the subject...

76 posted on 07/24/2014 8:19:50 PM PDT by kiryandil (making the jests that some FReepers aren't allowed to...)
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To: Jack Hydrazine

Back then, most were farmers.

And beyond that, they were farmers who didn’t depend (or even KNOW) about electricity.

AND... the population density was much, much lower.


77 posted on 07/24/2014 8:30:08 PM PDT by djf (OK. Well, now, lemme try to make this clear: If you LIKE your lasagna, you can KEEP your lasagna!)
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To: RFEngineer
An unloaded grid would be impacted very little. Better yet, shut down the grid.

Agreed, however pipelines are going to be a huge headache. There is going to be one headache of a huge ground loop.
78 posted on 07/24/2014 10:40:25 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: The Cajun

“Wouldn’t there be some *bleed off* to ground if it is a slow building quasi-DC pulse, thus minimizing the build up?”

Not really. It’s still a moving magnetic field against a wire - it will induce the voltage/current into the lines. This would go to ground through transformer windings.

Even though the voltage is fairly low, over distances typical of a power transmission line, it can be significant enough to half-cycle saturate a transformer, particularly autotransformers.

The best way to block these Geomagnetically Induced Currents is to put a capacitor in series with the line - effectively preventing any current flow. These are substantial devices and are already in place on a number of transmission lines in norther latitudes, such as in Quebec. There are other ways to prevent it. Each has it’s own advantages/challenges


79 posted on 07/24/2014 11:13:59 PM PDT by RFEngineer
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To: PA Engineer

“pipelines are going to be a huge headache” anti-corrosion systems, some of which are actively operated will need to be checked every time.

You’re right that pipelines can facilitate current flow in nearby transmission lines (they often share rights-of-way. Transmission lines near the ocean also respond differently.


80 posted on 07/24/2014 11:17:53 PM PDT by RFEngineer
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