Skip to comments.Groundhog Day 2013-Early Spring Predicted
Posted on 02/02/2013 5:25:46 AM PST by Gefn
An early spring is on the way, according to groundhog "Punxsutawney Phil."
When the Pennsylvania groundhog emerged from his dwelling at Gobbler's Knob Saturday morning, he did not see his shadow.
"And so ye faithful, there is no shadow to see, an early Spring for you and me," proclaimed Bob Roberts, one of Phil's handlers.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
Anybody got Punxsutawney Phil’s accuracy record over the years?
At least Phil isn’t a denier.
They all up high here in SW PA, meanin' t'say .. a mild winter.
Tha's all I think I know.
Oh dear! Not very I am afraid. I found this in an article.
According to Stormfax.com, Punxsutawney Phil has only been correct approximately 39% of the time. Of course, long range forecasts can be difficult to predict for the human forecaster. For example, the 2012-2013 winter outlook for the United States was supposed to have equal chances to see a wet/dry and cold/warm winter as the lack of an El Niño and La Niña made the forecast rather difficult to predict
article is here.
On the other hand, today is groundhog day and Punxsutawney Phil will tell us about spring.
Its Groundhog day....again...
So given that random guessing should produce a 50% success rate, can we say that Punxsutawney Phil is misleading?
I actually trust a rodent more than any meteorologist who embraces climate change!
I know what I am getting with the rodent.
So-— just 6 more weeks to winter instead of the usual month- and 1/2 ??
Perhaps. But he’s kinda cute. And personally, isn’t he as accurate as the talking head weatherman on the nightly news? They never seem to get the weather correct where I live.
It’s all in fun anyway.
Groundhog Day, February 2nd, is a popular tradition in the United States. It is also a legend that traverses centuries, its origins clouded in the mists of time with ethnic cultures and animals awakening on specific dates. Myths such as this tie our present to the distant past when nature did, indeed, influence our lives. It is the day that the Groundhog comes out of his hole after a long winter sleep to look for his shadow.
If he sees it, he regards it as an omen of six more weeks of bad weather and returns to his hole.
If the day is cloudy and, hence, shadowless, he takes it as a sign of spring and stays above ground.
The groundhog tradition stems from similar beliefs associated with Candlemas Day and the days of early Christians in Europe, and for centuries the custom was to have the clergy bless candles and distribute them to the people. Even then, it marked a milestone in the winter and the weather that day was important.
According to an old English song: If Candlemas be fair and bright, Come, Winter, have another flight; If Candlemas brings clouds and rain, Go Winter, and come not again.
General Beauregard Lee, the most famous resident of the Yellow River Game Ranch in Lilburn, did his job Wednesday morning. But Beau took his time in emerging from his "Weathering Heights" home.
"We made enough racket that he finally came out," Art Rilling, owner of the ranch, told the AJC.
About 200 guests weathered the blustery temperatures to greet the groundhog, who finally crawled out of his home to the sound of cheering and bell ringing.
Beau made his entrance at 7:41 a.m. and did not see his shadow. Spring is coming early, according to Beau's prediction.
Having a sister and son born on Groundhog’s day, It is important in my family. But......
The correlation seems to be with frontal movements.
If the front has passed, it will be clear and cold. If the front is just passing, it will be warmer but cloudy. The correlation prediction seems to be that if the day is clear there will be three more such frontal movements and six weeks of winter resulting from the cold trough. If cloudy the number of fronts till the trough recedes northward may be only two.
Like wooly worms, there is no real correlation.
Our family has a birthday on the day after “Candlemas Day”
We've had fun with it
Oh General Lee didn’t see his shadow. Staten Island Chuck didn’t see his shadow either.
Time to loose my 10 winter pounds, I want to get into those shorts!
I never want to hear “I got you babe” again after seeing that movie!
Do you think they used the same critter from “Caddyshack” in this movie as well?
“insignificant little rodent”
Why did I immediately think of Paul Krugman when I read your post?
But can he also predict the world will end in 10 years because of global warming? Huh, huh, can he?
Started out unseasonably cool down in MS in Oct/Nov then became normal and has gotten a tad milder than “normal”. I expect a short period of cooler weather before Feb-Mar transition is over, but just so-so down here. Of course, i grew up in upstate NY, so 60 degrees this time of year is a heat wave while it’s “average” for the area.
Phil's 39% correct is a heck of a lot better than Obama's 0%.
I say we run him (Phil) for the presidency next time.
I love Punxsutawney.
Had the pleasure of working there one summer as a teen.
At the WV/VA state line, the blackbirds had already returned last month and are still congregating near a truck stop on I-81.
Hubby thought I’d gone insane because I got extremely excited when I saw them.
They *never* come back to the area unless ‘spring’ is close at hand.
I was at the state line a couple days ago and most of them are still there, waiting.
I assume parts of the flock have gone further upstate by now.
So I am hopeful of an early spring, in spite of the fact that as of this moment, when I step outside, I pretty much instantly freeze in place.
[it’s viciously cold and windy]
I must be the only person in the world that likes winter LOL
Sled riding, soup on the stove, wood fire, Ice skating...
I like hiking in winter. Its quiet and beautiful.
Winter puts the lid on riff raff LOL
When its 20 degrees out you dont find punks hanging out on the street corner.
When its 20 below anyone you find outside is YOUR FRIEND!! LOL
Spring is overrated LOL
Tornadoes and **** pouring rain punctuated with some warm muddy days LOL
Autumn is the very best time of year
“I must be the only person in the world that likes winter”
Anyone who believes that rodent will probably be on welfare and food stamps shortly!
I saw this thread, and decided it was time for my annual viewing of Groundhog Day.
One of the interesting things about the film is that it is never actually said exactly how long he was there. In one of the initial ideas in the screenplay, Phil kept track of time by reading one page of a book from the library every day, and he made it all the way through every volume, so that would imply thousands of years.
Phil must be very aware that whether we have 6,7,8,10 more weeks of winter, it will get blamed on global warming! Spring came early in 2013...Global Warming! Ah Shucks! Spring came 6 weeks late,,must be GLOBAL WARMING !!
Phil and Karl Rove have similar abilities in making predictions.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.