Skip to comments.How Wisconsin is looking on election eve.
Posted on 11/05/2012 5:36:11 PM PST by barryobi
Have no fear FReepers, we will win Wisconsin and there are a lot good reasons why.
1. Wisconsin is ultimate purple state. In 2000 Gore won the state by less than 5,000 votes out of 2.7 million votes cast. Kerry won in 2004 by only 11,000 votes out of 2.9 million votes cast. 2008 was unusual because Obama won by 412,000 votes out of 2.9 million votes cast.
2. Fast forward to 2012, and the recall election on June 5th. Scott Walker was the devil incarnate to the public employee unions and the Democrats in this state. They went ALL IN to get him out, spent millions on ads, flew in hundreds of get out the vote union thugs, and they got a non presidential record 2.5 million voters to turn out. What was the result? The Democrat candidate lost to Walker by 171,000 votes, or 53%-46%.
3. With the lower enthusiasm for Obama, I doubt the turnout will be 2.9 million like in 2008, but will be higher than the 2.5 million for the recall. Let's say 2.8 million votes, or 300,000 more than the recall election. If the people who voted for Walker vote Romney this fall, Obama would have to make up the 171,000 deficit in just 300,000 votes. This means Obama would have to get 4 out of 5 votes out of that 300,000 to prevail.
4. The Ryan factor...There are 8 Congressional districts in Wisconsin and Ryan's District 1 is one of the more balanced districts. In 2004 Bush won over Kerry 54/46, but Ryan won his race 65/33. In 2008 Obama WON District 1 51/48, but Ryan won his race 64/35. Ryan is on the ballot for both his Congressional seat and as VP. The 'favorite son' factor is sure to add votes to Romney/Ryan that Romney would not have gotten without Ryan on the ticket. IF Ryan could win his district even 60/40 for Romney it would add almost 40,000 votes to Romney's totals vs what Obama got in 2008. In short, Ryan will take a pretty 50/50 district and make it more red than it normally is.
5. Thompson/Baldwin Senate race. Madison liberal lesbian Baldwin had a huge money advantage in the early part of this Senate race and savaged the popular former Governor. Tommy has found his voice and now has enough cash to compete with Baldwin on the airwaves. Tommy has taken a narrow lead in the race, and Karl Rove has poured his Crossroads USA cash into pointing out Baldwins radical votes. She is getting scared and running over the top anti Tommy ads. Tommy will prevail and hopefully this will help the top of ticket.
6. Reince Priebus ..The recall election gave Reince and the state Republican Party the opportunity to build the MOST sophisticated GOTV operation in the nation. The raw enthusiasm and incredible infrastructure which was built in the recall war this spring and summer was kept intact for the fall campaign. The Democrats thought their superior GOTV operation would win the recall and they got crushed 53-46. This fall will be closer, but I predict 50.5-49 for Romney/Ryan.
Obama has had three appearances in the last 5 days in the Badger State. He was in Green Bay, Milwaukee, and Madison. In Green Bay, he spoke on the tarmac at Austin Straubel Field to a decent, but not huge crowd of a few thousand. In Milwaukee on Saturday, he and Katy Perry could not turn out more than 10,000 people. The MSM media tried to claim it was 20,000+, but I debunked that here on FR almost as soon as Jake Tapper tweeted it. The Delta Airlines Center exhibition hall has a max capacity (fire code) of 12,580, and with two stages (one for Perry, one for Obama) there were probably about 10K people.
The last Obama rally in Wisconsin was today in Madison where Obama turned out 18,000 kool aid college kids and public employee union members. Bruce Springsteen headlined the event. I was in Madison for the Kerry rally in 2004 which Springsteen also headlined. Between 70,000-80,000 people showed up. I was only in Madison looking at colleges with my daughter, but we went down to the capitol to see what all the commotion was about. The crowd was crazy, the anti Iraq war sentiment was at a fever pitch, with code pinkers everywhere. The hatred for Bush was palpable and that year, Kerry still only won the state by 11,000 votes out of 2.9 million votes cast.
For Obama to only show up 18,000 is a bad sign for him, especially with the students who turned out in HUGE numbers in 2008. To be blunt, they are just not that into Barack anymore. He is kind of like MySpace in the Facebook era. Springsteen was a terrible choice for headliner, most of these kids associate The Boss with their parent's kind of music, decidely UNCOOL. Obama would have been much better getting some act like Green Day or Death Cab for Cutie to pull in the the college kids.
My son is at another state college in Wisconsin now and he said their is no vibe for Obama. The Obama robots on campus are not generating nearly the interest of 2008.
Early voting tallies for the state just came in which also auger well for Romney. In 2008, absentee and early votes total 633,610. In 2012 it was just announced that 545,060 absentee ballots and early votes were cast. That is a DECREASE of 98,550. Milwaukee was up about 5,000 early votes and Madison about 2,000, so I am not sure where the shortfall occurred, but I have a feeling it is in the absentee ballots from those areas. The Democrats wanted to get long lines in Madison and Milwaukee for early votes to get the TV coverage. They were hyping up their increase in early voting, but and extra 7,000 early votes out of a possible turnout of 2.9 million in nothing.
Now, I postulate that if the turnout is over 2.9 million, Obama will win the state. If it is less than 2.75, Romney will win. Between 2.75 and 2.9 and who knows. Given the fact that it APPEARS that early and absentee voting is down 100,000, if election day turnout is down 50,000 from 2008, we will get to the 2.75 million number I am hoping for.
My favorite topic: The Wisconsin Recall!
I have posting this on several threads, because there are A LOT of worry warts out there who have complete AMNESIA about what happened with the Recall and how the exact same thing is going on now with the presidential polls!
We were told by every single media outlet that the Wisconsin Recall was TOO CLOSE TO CALL.
49 MINUTES after the polls closed, it was over. Walker won with a bigger percentage than his original election: 53-46.
So take a trip down memory lane, and watch this video of the MSNBC crew telling us we wouldn’t know the outcome of the Recall for several hours, and then having to eat crow. Forward this video to any worry warts.
We have been here before with this TOO CLOSE TO CALL crap!
Barryobi speculates who will win Wisconsin. Whay do you think of his reasoning?
FReep Mail me if you want on, or off, this wisconsin interest ping list.
Madison: “Overcast with snow and rain, then rain in the afternoon. High of 46F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80% .”
(And thanks for your report!)
Here’s another point of reference regarding todays Springsteen-Obama lovefest (note who is the headliner) that drew 18,000. Just a little over a month ago, Springsteen pulled 84,000 fans into Wrigley Field for a PAID concert, while today they could only muster 18,000 for FREE.
A few more factors:
- They went after Justice Prosser with everything they had including trumped-up harassment charges, and lost.
- The Dems killed the taconite mine deal that would have brought hundreds of UNION jobs into northern WI.
- Kimberly Clark, Oshkosh Truck, and WPS have announced massive layoffs or job cuts in the past month. Thousands of jobs in total including 600 in the Mad City.
and finally - pigs fly down East Wash as the Wisconsin State Journal endorses Mitt Romney, saying “too little hope and not enough change”.
I’m sure Romney will win WI, and I really REALLY hope Tommy beats the stuffing out of Tammy Baldwin!
The participation is more important than the precipitation. GOTV!
Cool. I have to keep reminding myself that 50% of the 2008 results happened because of conservatives staying home.
R/R win. By a landslide. Wisconsin helps.
I bought Champagne tonight. I’m THAT optimistic. :)
Milwaukee election day weather....perfect Republican voting weather:) For the democrats, not so much, especially the inner city folks and college kids
Chance of Rain:60%Wind: SSW at 13 mph
I live in a rural area about a hour or so north of Madistan.
In ‘08 there were lots of Obama signs, now there are almost none. Many more R&R signs.
That doesn’t really give me any idea on how the WI vote will go, but it does tell me that the pretender-in-chief is not as popular as he was then ... not even close.
Even the comments on the website of the liberal newspapers are rather quiet.
We shall see ...
How about Tammy and Tommy? Will Tommy eke out a victory?
I think he will. After loaning American Paul Ryan and Reince Priebus, I’m throwing Tommy in for free, LOL!
There are NO Tammy lawn signs anywhere outside of, ‘The People’s Republik of Madistan.’
All of my friends ‘Up Nort’ are SO TIRED of Madison DICTATING legislation for the entire state. They see this as their time to change all that.
The unrest within the Silent Majority in this state is palpable!
I don’t think it is going to be close. Over sampled democrats and Romney still stayed statistically tied with Obama.
The media is crapping themselves. I know this not from the Presidential race but from the media not reporting on the Seante races. They didn’t want to bring attention to it.
Weather should induce many more Democrats to stay home than Republicans.
My champagne is chilling....
Will be a great night.
Everyone keep on Praying!
Here’s something a little fun to do; Make your own electoral map and share it with your friends. Prognosticate what the final vote will look like. Just click on the states to change them from blue, or brown, to red. The ticker in the left hand corner will figure the final electoral count.
Our local Republican Club is encouraging members to work these out, print them off, and bring them to the Victory Party share. Maybe there’s a prize. At least there is the bragging right of guessing rcorrectly.
I agree. I couldn’t avoid participatiuon is better than precipitation though. Rolls off the tongue.
He could just go to DC and stay. He couldn't represent us any less than Kohl. LOL.
“Wisconsin is ultimate purple state. In 2000 Gore won the state by less than 5,000 votes out of 2.7 million votes cast. Kerry won in 2004 by only 11,000 votes out of 2.9 million votes cast.”
I never realized Wisconsin was that close in those two elections. I guess it would be fair to say then, that without Madison, WI would probably be a reliably red state?
Good analysis. Thanks.
Without voter fraud and same day registration, WI would probably be a reliably red state.
Can’t argue with that. Good point!
You do not even need to remove Madison. Just remove all the out of state liberal students who should be voting absentee in their home state. That is probably 15,000 alone. I remember when the Supreme Court forced that alteration in voting law on us. I thought it was stupid at the time.
“R/R win. By a landslide. Wisconsin helps.I bought Champagne tonight. Im THAT optimistic. :)”
R/R win by a landslide nationally, including here in Ohio! I have a bottle of Black Bush ready for cork popping (yes, it has a cork)...and intend to be sipping it cerimoniously in a known victory celebration about this time (10pm est) tomorrow night.
I predict a rout...(posted by me this morning on an earlier thread)...and no, I don’t smoke :)
Romney/Ryan win popular vote 53%-46%
ECV 322 (could go as much as 359) for Romney/Ryan
Senate +9 for GOP, giving GOP 56 seats
House +4 for GOP, giving GOP 246 seats
We will know enough of this by 10 pm est to feel good about breaking out the good stuff on which we have already been sipping, and the armies of DIM lawyers waiting to challenge and demand recounts will have gone home to drown in their sorrows. A rout!
God, I hope you’re right!
Ah, and if you are anywhere close by, come join me for a sip :)
Victory Loves Company!