Obama has had three appearances in the last 5 days in the Badger State. He was in Green Bay, Milwaukee, and Madison. In Green Bay, he spoke on the tarmac at Austin Straubel Field to a decent, but not huge crowd of a few thousand. In Milwaukee on Saturday, he and Katy Perry could not turn out more than 10,000 people. The MSM media tried to claim it was 20,000+, but I debunked that here on FR almost as soon as Jake Tapper tweeted it. The Delta Airlines Center exhibition hall has a max capacity (fire code) of 12,580, and with two stages (one for Perry, one for Obama) there were probably about 10K people.
The last Obama rally in Wisconsin was today in Madison where Obama turned out 18,000 kool aid college kids and public employee union members. Bruce Springsteen headlined the event. I was in Madison for the Kerry rally in 2004 which Springsteen also headlined. Between 70,000-80,000 people showed up. I was only in Madison looking at colleges with my daughter, but we went down to the capitol to see what all the commotion was about. The crowd was crazy, the anti Iraq war sentiment was at a fever pitch, with code pinkers everywhere. The hatred for Bush was palpable and that year, Kerry still only won the state by 11,000 votes out of 2.9 million votes cast.
For Obama to only show up 18,000 is a bad sign for him, especially with the students who turned out in HUGE numbers in 2008. To be blunt, they are just not that into Barack anymore. He is kind of like MySpace in the Facebook era. Springsteen was a terrible choice for headliner, most of these kids associate The Boss with their parent's kind of music, decidely UNCOOL. Obama would have been much better getting some act like Green Day or Death Cab for Cutie to pull in the the college kids.
My son is at another state college in Wisconsin now and he said their is no vibe for Obama. The Obama robots on campus are not generating nearly the interest of 2008.
Early voting tallies for the state just came in which also auger well for Romney. In 2008, absentee and early votes total 633,610. In 2012 it was just announced that 545,060 absentee ballots and early votes were cast. That is a DECREASE of 98,550. Milwaukee was up about 5,000 early votes and Madison about 2,000, so I am not sure where the shortfall occurred, but I have a feeling it is in the absentee ballots from those areas. The Democrats wanted to get long lines in Madison and Milwaukee for early votes to get the TV coverage. They were hyping up their increase in early voting, but and extra 7,000 early votes out of a possible turnout of 2.9 million in nothing.
Now, I postulate that if the turnout is over 2.9 million, Obama will win the state. If it is less than 2.75, Romney will win. Between 2.75 and 2.9 and who knows. Given the fact that it APPEARS that early and absentee voting is down 100,000, if election day turnout is down 50,000 from 2008, we will get to the 2.75 million number I am hoping for.
My favorite topic: The Wisconsin Recall!
I have posting this on several threads, because there are A LOT of worry warts out there who have complete AMNESIA about what happened with the Recall and how the exact same thing is going on now with the presidential polls!
We were told by every single media outlet that the Wisconsin Recall was TOO CLOSE TO CALL.
49 MINUTES after the polls closed, it was over. Walker won with a bigger percentage than his original election: 53-46.
So take a trip down memory lane, and watch this video of the MSNBC crew telling us we wouldn’t know the outcome of the Recall for several hours, and then having to eat crow. Forward this video to any worry warts.
We have been here before with this TOO CLOSE TO CALL crap!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pchwcD4IPzs
Barryobi speculates who will win Wisconsin. Whay do you think of his reasoning?
FReep Mail me if you want on, or off, this wisconsin interest ping list.
Madison: “Overcast with snow and rain, then rain in the afternoon. High of 46F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80% .”
Oh boy!
(And thanks for your report!)
Here’s another point of reference regarding todays Springsteen-Obama lovefest (note who is the headliner) that drew 18,000. Just a little over a month ago, Springsteen pulled 84,000 fans into Wrigley Field for a PAID concert, while today they could only muster 18,000 for FREE.
Enthusiasm gap?
A few more factors:
- They went after Justice Prosser with everything they had including trumped-up harassment charges, and lost.
- The Dems killed the taconite mine deal that would have brought hundreds of UNION jobs into northern WI.
- Kimberly Clark, Oshkosh Truck, and WPS have announced massive layoffs or job cuts in the past month. Thousands of jobs in total including 600 in the Mad City.
and finally - pigs fly down East Wash as the Wisconsin State Journal endorses Mitt Romney, saying “too little hope and not enough change”.
I’m sure Romney will win WI, and I really REALLY hope Tommy beats the stuffing out of Tammy Baldwin!
Good one.
Cool. I have to keep reminding myself that 50% of the 2008 results happened because of conservatives staying home.
I live in a rural area about a hour or so north of Madistan.
In ‘08 there were lots of Obama signs, now there are almost none. Many more R&R signs.
That doesn’t really give me any idea on how the WI vote will go, but it does tell me that the pretender-in-chief is not as popular as he was then ... not even close.
Even the comments on the website of the liberal newspapers are rather quiet.
We shall see ...
“Wisconsin is ultimate purple state. In 2000 Gore won the state by less than 5,000 votes out of 2.7 million votes cast. Kerry won in 2004 by only 11,000 votes out of 2.9 million votes cast.”
I never realized Wisconsin was that close in those two elections. I guess it would be fair to say then, that without Madison, WI would probably be a reliably red state?
Good analysis. Thanks.