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Nate Silver - The back tracking/CYA has begun!!!
Twitter ^ | Sean Davis

Posted on 11/04/2012 8:52:31 AM PST by Perdogg



Sean Davis‏
@seanmdav

And the walkback continues. RT @fivethirtyeight: We have Obama as ~80% likely to win EC if pop. vote is a tie. 98% if O+1. 30% if R+1.


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: twitter

1 posted on 11/04/2012 8:52:34 AM PST by Perdogg
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

ping


2 posted on 11/04/2012 8:54:33 AM PST by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg

LOL Wow! The omniscient, infallible Nate Silver is really now saying this??? After ALL this time of projecting supreme confidence that Obama had this election in the bag???

As Rush would say... “They’re worried, folks. They’re REALLY worried!”


3 posted on 11/04/2012 8:57:57 AM PST by DestroyLiberalism
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To: Perdogg

This guy should go back to predicting baseball matches. There is not going to be a tie of the popular vote. His entire model is a joke.


4 posted on 11/04/2012 9:03:01 AM PST by BarnacleCenturion
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To: DestroyLiberalism
Obama has this in the bag and will win unless he doesn't have it in the bag and will lose.

--Nate Silver

5 posted on 11/04/2012 9:03:13 AM PST by JPG (Make it happen)
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To: Perdogg

Trying to let the DU crowd down easy after they easily swallowed Silver’s hook line and sinker for months.


6 posted on 11/04/2012 9:03:17 AM PST by Red Steel
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To: Perdogg

Intrade has moved 1 pt since I checked this morning.

#WishIHadSomeMoneyToPutOnThis


7 posted on 11/04/2012 9:04:11 AM PST by CPT Clay (Follow me on Twitter @Clay N TX)
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To: JPG

Exactly. LOL!


8 posted on 11/04/2012 9:06:27 AM PST by HerrBlucher (Praise to the Lord the Almighty the King of Creation)
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To: Perdogg

Prediction: Obama will win if he wins 270 or more electoral college votes and lose if he doesn’t get that.


9 posted on 11/04/2012 9:12:54 AM PST by garbanzo (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine)
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Comment #10 Removed by Moderator

To: CPT Clay

Let me tell you something about this intrade business.
I can tell you right now that all this wagering on Obama is coming from overseas.
The reason I know this is because offshore wagering outlet 5dimes had Obama at -330 meaning you have to put up 330$ to win 100$ (huge favorite).
You don’t build billion dollar palaces in Vegas because the public are smart bettors.


11 posted on 11/04/2012 9:14:45 AM PST by tshaun
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To: bleacherbum1969

Bleacher, I’ve been saying this on and off for the last few weeks and immediately get attacked as a troll. Rasmussen has been really good some years and really really bad in other years.

Hopefully he is really good this year, but to many Freepers here essentially ignore some of his bad years as if they didn’t happen.


12 posted on 11/04/2012 9:18:28 AM PST by muwarriors92
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To: Perdogg

What? There is no walk back by Nate the Great. He has Obama with a 85.1% chance of winning today, Obama’s highest since the first debate. My Tuesday night will be spent on MSNBC and 538 blog. I cannot wait to watch their little totalitarian world explode.


13 posted on 11/04/2012 9:18:28 AM PST by Founding Father (The Pedophile moHAMmudd (PBUH---Pigblood be upon him))
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To: tshaun

I think Silver is the only Pollster/Predictor that Axlerod hasn’t sent a sawed off Horses head to. Note all the Polls are basically even. Everyone will claim that we just didn’t see the voter gap enthusiasm for the Repubs.


14 posted on 11/04/2012 9:20:30 AM PST by DAC21
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To: bleacherbum1969

LOL!

So you just signed up today to tell us how concerned you are?

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiight.


15 posted on 11/04/2012 9:22:32 AM PST by VanDeKoik
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To: bleacherbum1969

Your post lists nine states. Ras correctly called the winner in seven, and had one tie that went for Obama. That’s not too bad so why freak out?


16 posted on 11/04/2012 9:32:01 AM PST by SoCal Pubbie
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To: bleacherbum1969

Because Rass was the most accurate in 2008. Yes, he was off but less off then every other pollster.


17 posted on 11/04/2012 9:32:18 AM PST by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: bleacherbum1969
bleacherbum1969 Since Nov 4, 2012

Ah see, another DU troll spreading disinformation in the vain hope it will change reality.

18 posted on 11/04/2012 9:33:29 AM PST by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: SoCal Pubbie
Why freak out?

bleacherbum1969 Since Nov 4, 2012

19 posted on 11/04/2012 9:34:30 AM PST by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: bleacherbum1969

Gabba gabba hey. Not.


20 posted on 11/04/2012 9:35:55 AM PST by Stentor
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To: muwarriors92
Because Rass was the most accurate in 2008. Yes, he was off but less off then every other pollster.

But I know don't bother the Freeper Eeyore choir with inconvenient facts

21 posted on 11/04/2012 9:36:09 AM PST by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: DestroyLiberalism
He's only infallible when he speaks ex cathreda on matters of faith and doctrine.
22 posted on 11/04/2012 9:41:42 AM PST by Lonesome in Massachussets (Obama: Brought to you by the letter "O" and the number 16 trillion.)
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To: bleacherbum1969

Rasmussen and Pew were tied for best in 2008. They were both dead on nationally. This year, Rasmussen is adjusting to a +3D turnout. This is contrary to his own polling that finds there are more Republicans than Democrats now. He is predicting Republicans will not turn out at the same rate as Democrats in 2012. I predict he is wrong. McCain was viewed as an old, cantankerous, Bush-cloned Washington insider. That was partly unfair, but that is how he was viewed. Obama was viewed as a genius rock-star preaching hope-n-change. This year is different. Obama has a record he must run on and Romney is a far better candidate than McCain.


23 posted on 11/04/2012 9:51:41 AM PST by Askwhy5times (http://bluegrasspundit.com/)
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To: MNJohnnie

Rasmussen was off nationally by only 0.5% in 2008. That’s pretty good.


24 posted on 11/04/2012 10:01:38 AM PST by Askwhy5times (http://bluegrasspundit.com/)
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To: bleacherbum1969

IBTZ


25 posted on 11/04/2012 10:02:23 AM PST by jimbo123
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To: MNJohnnie
Because Rass was the most accurate in 2008.

Has someone done a systematic comparison of all the major pollsters for 2008? I'd love to see a link.
26 posted on 11/04/2012 10:05:57 AM PST by Eagle Forgotten
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To: Eagle Forgotten

Really nice comparison here. Scroll down the page for the pollster results. (Also has Intrade results) http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php


27 posted on 11/04/2012 10:08:51 AM PST by Askwhy5times (http://bluegrasspundit.com/)
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To: Eagle Forgotten

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf

2008 polling analysis


28 posted on 11/04/2012 10:15:33 AM PST by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Founding Father

Thank you, glad to see someone reads instead of just jumping in with an emotion based opinion. The changes Silver has made are by a tenth or hundredth of a percent - still with the same results.


29 posted on 11/04/2012 10:47:35 AM PST by CAconservitive
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To: MNJohnnie

Rass was the most accurate in 2008. Gallup didn’t do very well.

Rass did very poorly in 2010.

That’s my concern.

We’re here saying Gallup is the cat’s meow, yet they got a “C” in 2008. Rass got a “C” in 2010 but an “A” in 2008. PPP and Quinipiac both got B+’s in 2010 but did poorly in 2008.

I don’t think anyone knows what is going to happen. Rasmussen has this election tied right now...I’m hoping Gallup is the one that is correct because basically they are saying the enthusiasm gap is going to win the day for Mitt.


30 posted on 11/04/2012 11:17:48 AM PST by muwarriors92
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To: MNJohnnie

Maybe he pulls this out, but right now Rass and others are looking like they were wrong. And yet I’m the “freeper Eeyore” for simply calling it out and not drinking the Romney landslide stuff? Uhm, ok.


31 posted on 11/06/2012 6:56:05 PM PST by muwarriors92
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