Let me tell you something about this intrade business.
I can tell you right now that all this wagering on Obama is coming from overseas.
The reason I know this is because offshore wagering outlet 5dimes had Obama at -330 meaning you have to put up 330$ to win 100$ (huge favorite).
You don’t build billion dollar palaces in Vegas because the public are smart bettors.
I think Silver is the only Pollster/Predictor that Axlerod hasn’t sent a sawed off Horses head to. Note all the Polls are basically even. Everyone will claim that we just didn’t see the voter gap enthusiasm for the Repubs.