FWIW, it’s not just the Intrade market predicting Obama to win it, but also others:
http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2012presidentindividual
A potential caveat is I’m sure many Intrade bettors also make plays at these other sites as well.
Food for thought.
I happen to think that the analyses here:
http://www.unskewedpolls.com/2012electorate.cfm
and here:
http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_02.cfm
have the described situation precisely as it is.
Romney: 53.974%, Obama 46.026% nationally. No one with this margin of victory in the national popular vote has ever lost in the electoral college.
And Intertrade had Obamacare an 90% chance to overturn in the SC.
If you have rich sugar daddies willing to waste money like Obama Intrade is easy to manipulate.
What is a wonder is supposedly “smart” people still buy their marketing nonsense about their accuracy.
You are correct. Even Real Clear Politics has Obama with 290 electoral votes. RCP leans to the right. Colorado was just moved into the Obama column today. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html