And Intertrade had Obamacare an 90% chance to overturn in the SC.
If you have rich sugar daddies willing to waste money like Obama Intrade is easy to manipulate.
What is a wonder is supposedly “smart” people still buy their marketing nonsense about their accuracy.
Kinda apples&oranges to contrast predictive performance of a judicial outcome vs. an electoral outcome; there’s a lot of more information from many different sources to help prognosticate an election, not so much for anticipating the whims of a USSC.
That being said, I don’t put a lot of faith in Intrade/et al, and I do think a great deal of the movement comprises dumb money.
Nevertheless, I still have to wonder: What information is driving these people’s decisions? Why is Obama up 63.5%…? It can’t -all- be dumb money sifting around. Surely at least some of bettors are privy to what people around here have been confident about for weeks now…