A series of two flat lines can appear to be a continuous warming trend if a linear trend line is fitted because it ignores the step change. McKitrick and Voselgang
Posted on 05/07/2012 12:43:49 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Even most skeptics agree that the world has been warming during the last 50 years, but there is apparently no significant underlying warming trend in 46 out of 47 years of data. Something decidedly unusual happened to the world in 1977 and we don’t know for sure what it was. The world got warmer, and the change “stuck”. But there were no extra emissions of CO2 in that year, so there is no reason to pin this to CO2.
It’s difficult to believe we are not sure – but the last 50 years of warming trend depends on that single stepwise leap in 1977. Look at the graph below. Does it show one strong underlying warming trend, or is it really a trend so insignificant that it wouldn’t exist if there was not a step change that artificially bolstered it?
A series of two flat lines can appear to be a continuous warming trend if a linear trend line is fitted because it ignores the step change. McKitrick and Voselgang
This step effect was first noted by David Stockwell in 2009
The continuous warming appears to be obvious in the records of the lower atmosphere when we draw a linear trend line.
McKitrick and Voselgang (click to enlarge)
But look again at the data, allowing for the step-change in 1977.
McKitrick and Voselgang (click to enlarge)
The problem with step changes is that two flat lines with a rising step change will artificially produce a rising linear trend that is meaningless. McKitrick and Voselgang[i] account for the step change and show that significant warming trends in the low to mid troposphere only occur from 1958-2005 if we include the step-change. If the step change is removed, the underlying trend is not significant. In other words, 46 out of the 47 years of atmospheric data do not produce a meaningful rising trend.
If CO2 is having an impact on our atmosphere it is impossible to say with any certainty what that effect has been.
[i] McKitrick, R. and Vogelsang, T. J. (2011), Multivariate trend comparisons between autocorrelated climate series with general trend regressors, Department of Economics, University of Guelph. [Discussion paper PDF]
No, The sun warms the planet.
oh no! not solar warming!
and changes in the Sun cause climate change. And there is not a damn thing humans can do to stop it.
Check this out:
oh no! not solar warming!
____________________________________________________________
Unfortunately, no, not solar warming. Solar warming is not a bad thing if you live in Europe or northern Aasia or even Canada. But there is no Global Warming. Forget all that you have ever heard on the subject from the media, it is a lie.
The fact of the matter is that climate changes. It changes in cycles. Man is not big enough to change the climate of the earth, not yet anyway.
The fact is that we are not warming. We certainly have not warmed in the last 15 years and it appears instead that we are cooling. People take vacations to warm places, only skiers go to cold places. Soon the cold places will be coming to the skiers. A Mini-Ice Age or even a full fledged Ice Age can happen in as little as 20 years, some astrophysicists claim that it happens even faster than that.
I don’t like ice in my front yard. It looks like all of us better get used to it real soon. We may well be headed for a Dalton or even a Maunder type mini-ice age. I wish it weren’t so but it seems it is.
I know real estate is not selling well right now but if I lived above the Mason Dixon line I think I would seriously find a reason to move south.
I know it sounds silly, just as silly as Al Gore and global warming but I would suggest that if you really want to know a little about it and be scared half out of your wits, go to “http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/189"; and start reading. The facts will scare you.
But clever politicians have figured aout a way to enhance themselves by selling the concept of Man Made Global Warming.
When you've got several tons of swamp plant-munching lizard letting 'er rip
the effects can be long lasting!
First of all, the sun warms the planet.
Second, a small moderation of these effects is from greenhouse gases, the most import of which is water vapor. Since 70% of the earth’s surface is water, water is the dominating green house gas, unlike the crap that liberal morons would feed you.
thank you for the reasoned reply. my comment was intended to be sarcastic.
The 1930s were really hot on the high plains! look at these temps for Tulsa, OK at that time before air conditioning!
http://www.weather.com/outlook/health/fitness/wxclimatology/daily/USOK0537?climoMonth=7
I remember the enviro-whackos claiming that freon was the culprit.
When industry stopped using freon the enviro-whackos suddenly said, “Oops! We were wrong. It wasn’t the freon, it is the CO2!”
Not many people on the left can see this obvious lie.
Well, regardless if it is or is not, one thing is certain—huge taxes and regulations are needed, just in case.
CO2 is the industrial gas. Who hates industry. Who hates growth. Who hates america. Whose pushing the AGW/IPCC CO2 scam. SOCIALIST ANTI-AMERICAN DEMOCRATS. There is not enough CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere to cause any meaningful warming and there will not be in the future. CO2 regulates itself naturally. That is something the socialist left does not want to hear. This CO2 scam follows a series of other scams propagated by the socialist democrats, OZONE HOLE, ACID RAIN. Their next scam will be water and water pollution caused by evil man.
“Even most skeptics agree that the world has been warming during the last 50 years”
No, they do not. This is just another attempt to incrementally lie and claim “everyone knows it”. No, everyone does not know it. In fact, many believe the world is actually cooling.
This is also an incremental attempt to say there is no evidence and that warming is “difficult” to prove. No, it is EASY to prove or disprove. The DMSP spacecraft fleet has been measuring the Earth’s atmosphere for decades. No warming found.
Huh? Who dat?
The world warms after a glacial until a local max occurs. At that point the world cools until we enter the next glacial and a local min occurs. Rinse and repeat until Gaia draws her last watt.
Google it. It’s mostly declassified.
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