Posted on 05/03/2012 7:42:20 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
From: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 60 in the Spring of 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years.
The prediction method has been slightly revised. The previous method found a fit for both the amplitude and the starting time of the cycle along with a weighted estimate of the amplitude from precursor predictions (polar fields and geomagnetic activity near cycle minimum). Recent work [see Hathaway Solar Physics; 273, 221 (2011)] indicates that the equatorward drift of the sunspot latitudes as seen in the Butterfly Diagram follows a standard path for all cycles provided the dates are taken relative to a starting time determined by fitting the full cycle. Using data for the current sunspot cycle indicates a starting date of May of 2008. Fixing this date and then finding the cycle amplitude that best fits the sunspot number data yields the current (revised) prediction.
(Excerpt) Read more at wattsupwiththat.com ...
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Bruce of Newcastle says:
Interesting that Dr Hathaway has a predicted solar cycle length for SC24 around 13 years from look of his graph. Suggests the following cycle will also be cool, about 1-1.5 C below average. So, temperatures look like staying down until the mid 2030′s at least.
fyi
"Changes in carbon-14 concentration in the Earth's atmosphere, which serves as a long term proxy of solar activity. Note the present day is on the left-hand side of this figure."
Good Hunting... from Varmint Al
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William Astley says:
There are cycles of warming, followed by cooling and in some cases abrupt cooling in the paleoclimatic record that correlate with cosmogenic isotope changes. All of the observational data points to the sun as the fundamental driver of the cyclic climate changes, including the very large, very rapid, Younger Dryas (Heinrich events) climate change events, that are capable of terminating interglacial periods. The unanswered question is how the solar magnetic cycle changes cause what is observed.
It will be interesting to watch this cycle end. This does appear to be an interruption to the solar magnetic cycle, as opposed to a slow down in the cycle.
The extreme AGW supporters should have left themselves a way out.
The Center for Sun-Climate Research at the DNSC (Danish National Space Center) investigates the connection between variations in the intensity of cosmic rays and climatic changes on Earth. This field of research has been given the name 'cosmoclimatology'"..."Cosmic ray intensities and therefore cloudiness keep changing because the Sun's magnetic field varies in its ability to repel cosmic rays coming from the Galaxy, before they can reach the Earth." :
http://www.spacecenter.dk/research/sun-climate
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Here's an excellent book out on the subject titled "The Chilling Stars, 2nd Edition: A Cosmic View of Climate Change". It's written by one of the top scientists advancing the theory (Henrik Svensmark, of the above mentioned Danish National Space Center/DNSC).
"The authors explain their theory that sub-atomic particles from exploded stars have more effect on the climate than manmade CO2."
http://www.sciencedaily.com/books/t/1840468157-the_chilling_stars_the_new_theory_of_climate_change.htm
Amazon Books: "The Chilling Stars, 2nd Edition: A Cosmic View of Climate Change"
http://www.amazon.com/Chilling-Stars-2nd-Cosmic-Climate/dp/1840468661 zs90]
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Ignore the implied link just above...goes back to the top of this thread.
Are these predictions on a par with Hurricane predictions? Since a CME event which would be damaging would depend on its intensity and direction (pointed at the earth) when it occurs, it would seem less likely to occur, yet I have seen predictions we are “due” such an event. I lost everything in Charlie, which was a very small, but intense storm which was a direct hit for me. Aside from “Hype”, what is the general thoughts on CMEs?
About a year or so ago, there were a few articles about the lack of evidence of solar cycle 25, which should be exhibiting itself at the poles, I believe. Any recent news on that?
Rather than peaking in 2013, I think we may be already at the peak.
Clouds Effect on Climate Change Is Last Bastion for Dissenters
Actually they didn't think clouds matter so neither does the sun having any impact on cosmic rays causing clouds matter.
Gonna' get right chilly ya hear
There was an article last month about the sun’s magnetic field splitting.....last time this occured was during the Maunder Minimum if I remember correctly.
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Some politicians have welcomed that message, regularly calling Dr. Lindzen and a handful of other contrarian scientists before Congressional committees. During a hearing before a House subcommittee, Representative Dana Rohrabacher, a California Republican and vocal global warming skeptic, complained that in the scientific community, there are people trying to tell us that we have got to accept draconian changes in our way of life mandated by law because the CO2 that we are emitting is going to cause drastic consequences to the planets climate.
He repeatedly sought affirmation from Dr. Lindzen for his views, and got it.
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Dana is my Congressman.....
I believe that a new sunspot cycle technically begins when the magnetic polarity of appearing sunspot pairs reverses. The ‘spots’ are the cross sections of twisted magnetic field lines which poke, or ‘loop’, out of the Sun’s surface. They are dark because they are comparatively cooler than the surrounding solar surface. Their main effect on Earth climate is an indirect one involving charged particles from deep space [galactic cosmic rays] and the sun’s ability to repel them. The sun’s ability various with its fluctuating magnetic cycle.
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