New York Times - Sienna Poll is Suspect (Vanity)

NY Times and Sienna College polling ^ | 11/8/23 | BigEdLB

[BigEdLB]

Source for poll numbers above

[BigEdLB]

A couple of weeks ago we were astonished at the results of the NYT/Sienna poll which had Donald Trump ahead in five of six swing states. When you dig into the internals however, one becomes increasingly aware that the poll was done to push a narrative. The fact is they have no knowledge of how states relate to one another in a Presidential Election.
You need to get numbers to prove this: The poll itself, and a “factor” for the involved states. The factor is obtained by dividing republican by democrat average for the last three elections. I took into account the fraud perpritated by the Biden camp with willing support of the Chinese Communist Party… Imported Ballots driven to Philadelphia, and the bald dude pulling similar ballots in a backpack in Atlanta, as examples. I was able to get a reasonable result for 2020. I also took out the Mittens McMullen numbers from Utah and Idaho and added them to the Donald trump numbers for 2016.
The poll factor is simply Trump divided by Biden percents. When you divide the Poll factor by the State factor the variance is ludicrous.
Here are the numbers:
Arizona: Poll Factor 1.125 - State Factor: 1.166 - Net 0.965
Georgia: Poll 1.189 - State 1.162 – Net 1.023
Michigan: Poll 1.077 – State 1.014 – Net 1.062
So far – Nothing too odd possibly a margin of error thing … but now it gets FUN!
Nevada: Poll 1.306 – State 1.008 – Net 1.295
Pennsylvania: Poll 1.100 – State 0.970 – Net 1.134
And the one state where Trump was behind –
Wisconsin: Poll 0.932 – State 1.058 – Net 0.881

The New York Times is telling us that Wisconsin is 12% more predisposed to Biden and Nevada is Nearly 30% more predisposed to Trump?
Sienna College had instruction to do this, to create a bogus poll – Or they had a massive pot party the night before conducting the survey.

I think the thread involving the analysis by Peter Schweitzer is incorrectI did this because this poll has always had the aura of skunk because the numbers did not make sense

[FlingWingFlyer]

I think the 2022 erection and yesterday’s erection is all any needs to know about the 2024 erection. Americans aren’t interested in saving their country. All they want to do is kill babies, take “selfies” and to “hang out” while pokin’ their cellphone.

[Theoria]

Close polls are for the media to drive and make money. If its not close, there isn’t any money to be made.

[nwrep]

Trump cannot win against Biden.

[Robert DeLong]

Trump won the 2020 election. If you believe that Biden honestly received 81 million votes, then you will believe anything I reckon.

[MayflowerMadam]

LOL!

[Owen]

Your analysis has no particular merit. You make up criteria for adjustment.

I looked at the internals. The samples were pretty good. About the only thing one could not determine from them was the direction of Independents movement — which is essentially all that matters.

[skr]

Put it this way, Trump can’t beat a DNC-manipulated election. He wasn’t able to while being president, and the enemy has total control of the all the bureaucracies that deal with the Federal elections.

We’re going to need a miracle, so we’d best humble ourselves before our Heavenly Father and pray without ceasing for one.

[Robert DeLong]

We’re going to need a miracle

So be it, pray for a miracle. I personally believe in the power of prayer & miracles. They happen all of the time. The time has come for people to return to prayer anyway.

[SoConPubbie]

We’re going to need a miracle, so we’d best humble ourselves before our Heavenly Father and pray without ceasing for one.

I whole-heartedly agree with this point of yours.

However, if you are trying to pretend that one of the eight midget GOP contenders can somehow do a better job at winning the general election, you are full of it!

[Olog-hai]

Opus? or just sarcasm?

[Olog-hai]

It’s a Uniparty-manipulated election. The RINOs are just as guilty as the Democrats.

[Olog-hai]

What numbers don’t make sense?

Number that say Trump’s beating Biden don’t make sense?

[Mears]

Erection ?

…

[FlingWingFlyer]

That’s what they are these days. Somebody, usually the GOP takes it in the ying yang.

[BigEdLB]

Not the way tey arrived at it. Over time states relate to one another in a national election. The results are inconsistent between the states.

[BigEdLB]

The states are inconsistent one to another, some by a lot

[Olog-hai]

So what are the right numbers? And why would the NY Times want to show Trump with good numbers anyway?

[napscoordinator]

Even true, he’s still sitting in the big chair and since nothing was done to tighten the problem, a huge chance he sits in the big chair again especially after the results of 2022 and 2023.