Posted on 08/31/2023 2:32:17 PM PDT by cotton1706
A poll released Thursday indicates the Senate GOP campaign arm’s pick to unseat Montana’s incumbent Democratic senator in 2024 is not faring well in a potential primary.
Former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, who was recruited by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is losing by double digits to Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale, who’s considering a bid, according to a J.L. Partners survey. Sheehy garnered only 21% support compared to Rosendale’s 52%, with 28% of GOP primary voters remaining undecided as to which Republican should take on Democratic Sen. Jon Tester.
Both Sheehy and Rosendale would beat Tester, but the former Navy SEAL is winning by a slightly larger margin of 1 point among likely general election voters, according to the poll.
(Excerpt) Read more at dcenquirer.com ...
They can keep their preferred pantywaist.
I thought Montana was not a Democrap stronghold? Why is the Democrap candidate so strong there?
They rig it in the Montana college towns and on the rez.
The GOPe can take a header off a cliff. The Republic will be better off.
Republicans have shockingly had a terrible time winning Senate seats in MT since the popular vote was instituted. Curiously, they have almost always lost by an extremely narrow margin of less than 5% (even as the GOP has won the Governorship).
Only 3 men in over 100 years have won the Senate races there (Zales Ecton in 1946, but that only after the Dem incumbent who lost the primary endorsed the Republican; Conrad Burns in 1988, 1994 and 2000, and then had the seat stolen by Jon Tester in 2006 after fake criminal charges were brought against Burns; and Steve Daines, presently occupying the other seat, in 2014 & 2020).
Cankles 2016 Tester 2018 Trump 2016 Rosendale 2018 Biden 2020 Montana 177,709 253,876 143% 279,240 235,963 85% 244,786
Note how the Montana Machine turned out 77,000 more "votes" for Jon Tester in an off-year than Hillary got in a presidential election year.
Heck, Testes got 9,000 more "votes" than the Tater got in the Cheat Year. They must be going for The Cheat big-time for Testes in 2024.
I can't imagine him running otherwise.
see my post #6
"Rosendale served in both chambers of the state Legislature, was state auditor and has been serving Montana in Congress since 2020. The House Freedom Caucus member previously challenged Tester in 2018 and lost by 3.5 points, which is why the NRSC has said they didn’t recruit him to run for the same seat in 2024."
Sounds more like we'll be keeping Tester again.
2018 was a tough year for republicans so he kept the seat by a large margin. But his first election is 2012, he barely won and only did because obamas second term. I think we take back the seat this time.
“which is why the NRSC has said they didn’t recruit him to run for the same seat in 2024.”
Yeah, isn’t it funny that the NRSC didn’t say the same thing about Martha McSally in Arizona. Lost to Sinema in 2018 then low and behold was the nominee AGAIN in 2020, after Governor Ducey appointed her to fill out John McCain’s seat (upon the recommendations of McConnell and the NRSC). A prior loser was just fine in that case. And of course she went on to lose AGAIN!
Rosendale has already faced the same electorate as a Senate seat and won. Montana had only one House seat until the last census. Now it has two.
Jon Tester (50.3%) got a much higher percentage of the vote than Hillary (36%) did. There's hardly anything mysterious about the vote numbers being much higher when a candidate gets 14% more of the vote.
Not necessarily - since they’ve been electing him to the House I guess the voters are now over the “carpet bagger” attack.
The Democrat base turns out in force in any presidential election year. You see the REAL Democrat base, then.
My point is that Testes augmented the Democrat base mightily in an off-year "election".
Also, Testes managed to increase the TOTAL "turnout".
The 2016 presidential election in Montana had 484,986 total voters.
The 2018 US Senate "election" in Montana had 504,384 total "voters". Just THINK of the "enthusiasm"!!
McSally was an appointed incumbent when she lost to Mark Kelly. This would be the exact same matchup in a ruby red state that Rosendale already lost once to Tester last time. I don’t believe in rematches with the same losing candidate.
UMW.
MT is not a Right to Work State.
A newcomer Sheehy is going to beat an entrenched incumbent? Come on. Rosendale is already a loser. The only one left is the best one. Governor Gianforte. He won’t run. The governorship is more important? He just doesn’t want to risk losing. He’s just like the rest. The GOP is not serious about taking the seat.
Montana has been discovered by rich libs. I blame Costner.
But he’s a former NAVY SEAL! You’re unpatriotic if you don’t vote for him!
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