Posted on 10/31/2020 11:42:16 AM PDT by entropy12
Created Using 270towin.com
Comments please.
PA is critical. If PDJT wins that, Biden is Bye-Done.
Texas a leaner?
I would not cede MI WI to Biden
Maybe even not MN
I was trying to be conservative.
If it helps, my BIL who lives in OR called me last night to tell me he Voted for POTUS Trump.
He is one of those people who doesn’t pay attention to Politics, but the crap happening in Portland made him finally pay attention...
My personal one gives the following to Trump:
Michigan
Minnesota
Nevada
New Hampshire
Wisconsin
For a total of 326 Trump/212 Biden
Not ceding, but to show Trump can win without those.
If Trump loses PA (so much fraud in Philadelphia and 1 million early vote deficit) 2 out of 3 from those will be needed.
That would be great, I am assuming the worst scenario.
This looks very realistic. I would add WI and MI and possibly NV to the red column.
Of course, this all depends on how much cheating goes on, especially in PA.
Pennsylvania is going to be a clown show. They're not going to know who the winner is for days.
Actually, looking at the 270toWin maps, I have a hard time seeing the president retain PA, WI, and MI.
I believe Trump has a shot at winning New Mexico. He lost to Clinton by about 66,000 votes. But, Gary Johnson had about 80,000 votes. If the numbers are accurate, Trump is doing better with Hispanics this year, plus he has been endorsed by the President of the Navajo Nation. The Trump campaign has been having some get out the vote efforts in NM, so that one might be a surprise win.
I also believe Trump will carry Michigan and Wisconsin, and very likely Pennsylvania and Minnesota.
MAGA
Fla nc Ariz Penn it is over
Me thinks it all depends on how real the news is about A-A’s switching to Trump this time. I have seen estimates as high as 35-40%. Note that most are registered democrats. So early voting totals can be misleading.
PA, WI, and MI are certainly unpredictable considering how narrow Trump’s win in those states was in 2016.
That’s a good baseline. If we happen to loose PA (which I don’t thing will happen) we just need to pick up one of MN, WI or MI. Losing any in play state like AZ can be offset by picking up another one like one from the upper midwest.
Good job. Seems conservatively reasonable.
I think this is the set of base states the Trump campaign is working to nail down. The next tier is likely MI, WI, MN, NH, and NV, with CO, VA, NM joining in a best case scenario.
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