For many years, history professor Allan Lichtman's has gained fame predicting Presidential Elections through a Key Question model that has remained consistent since 1980.
Lichtman has published his prediction methodology in a Wikipedia entry entitled, The Keys to The White House, which he claims has predicted the winner every time, with exception of his error predicting Al Gore's victory over Bush.
Before the 2016 Election, Lichtman predicted his model would have Trump win, but the devil in his model is how he interprets the facts plugged into the model. I analyzed his analysis in a 2016 FR vanity: Professor Masks Evidence, Discredits Own Election Model in Trump Victory Prediction.
So I decided to critique his analysis for 2020 released in early August and found a New York Times video where you can hear Lichtman analyze his model for this year's election where he predicts a Biden victory.
Now below I inserted my own answers and analysis based on Lichtman's model and I came up with a strong Trump victory using the exact same Key Questions. So I leave it to you, dear FReepers, to compare the two interpretations and see which you believe.
I assume Lichtman's model is a rather reliable predictor as long as the interpreter's bias is removed. However, I now suspect Lichtman foresees his career as election guru coming to an end. In my view he unfairly tipped this interpretation to Biden to please his Fake News masters. The risk he takes is: if Trump should wins, then Lichtman's reputation is ruined.
So the net effect is Lichtman is cheating his own prediction model with the dishonest facts he inserted into it. In the end, Lichtman sold his soul for a few pieces of silver to the New York Times. And for the Times, that's dandy because it's opportunity to knock President Trump down with a more subtle form of fake news.
Analysis of the 2020 Election Prediction
OK, so how does his Election Prediction Model work? Well, there are 13 Keys statements that favor the re-election of the incumbent party. The winner is determined as follows:
The incumbent party (Trump) wins when 8 or more statements are true
The challenging party (Biden) wins when 6 or more statements are false.
So here's my own scoring of Lichtman's model for Election 2020, explaining where Lichtman judged differently.
- Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
False, the Democrats gained the House in the 2018 mid-terms. Some say that election cheating was a major reason the Republicans lost, particularly in Calfornia.
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
True, President Trump crushed the Republican nomination process with record primary voting for any incumbent.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
True, the incumbent candidate, Trump, is the sitting president.
- Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
True, there's little talk of third party candidates this year. Kanye West is running in a few States, but is expected to take votes away from Biden and fewer from Trump.
- Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
True, the economy is gaining steam fast as we get through the pandemic. Jobs are making a strong recovery and the stock market is at an all-time high. Lichtman disagrees.
- Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
True, GDP made tremendous gains during Trump's time in office and is smartly jumping out of the Covid 19 crisis to surge again thanks to the country being the energy self-sufficient, strong manufacturing growth, control of our borders, strong tech & communications infrastructure,huge gain in the stock market, and trade deals such as the USMCA trade deals with Japan and China that will boost the prosperity of Americans. Despite all these successes, Lichtman claims all these gains were wiped out by Covid 19.
- Policy change: The incumbent administration causes major changes in national policy.
True, Trump has massively changed our national policy -- securing our Southern Border, made progress in Middle East peace, vanquished ISIS, neutralized Iran, made the large tax cut in history, broadly repealed countless job-killing regulations, and built a very strong economy.
- Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
False, The Antifa and BLM riots across the country have instigated 500 violent incidents in the past few months of the election season. However, the President has clearly been on the side of Law and Order. Meanwhile the Democrats and their accomplices in the national press until very recently were neglecting to even acknowledge that the violence was a problem. The violence is occuring in Democrat cities, further hurting the challenger Biden. Lichtman conveniently fails to discuss this inconsistency in his model with today's exception. I think we can reasonably assume that Trump will win the Law & Order vote by a long shot.
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
False. The President is tainted by endless scandals, all of them manufactured by the Democrats and the national press media. Yet the credibility of each scandal has been proven wrong. The Russia, Russia, Russian collusion story has been utterly discredited. The Impeachment charges were soundly defeated. The "racist" charges of the Charlottesville controversy are proven wrong on video. Yet the question remains: how many voters continue to be duped by the partisan media?
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
True. Not a single foreign/military failure has occurred in Trump's first term, and this is inspite of Trump putting relentless pressure on foreign governments to change their policies.
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
True. The foreign/military successes of the Trump administration are many and significant. Trump has struck many new trade deals advantageous to America. He has destroyed the barbaric ISIS. He's bringing an end to the war in Afghanistan. He has brokered peace between Israel and the UAE, the economic power of the Arab nations. He has quelled the threat of missile attack from North Korea and established a personal relationship with North Korea's leader. Trump has also neutered Iran, severely hurting their ability to foment violence in the Middle East. In spite of all these successes, Lichtman believes Trump cannot point to a single foreign success. Kind of an unbelievable interpretation actually.
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
True. True, President Trump is the leader of the Free World and one of most charismatic U.S. Presidents in history. He is a national business hero and for 15 years was the star of the hit NBC TV show, the Apprentice. He is in the top 10 in the world ranking of followers on Twitter. He has held scores of highly attended rallies across across the country. Boat parades around the country are forming across the country where hundreds to thousands of boaters are flying the American flag and Trump banners. In the face of all this, Lichtman, incredibly, is saying Trump is not charismatic because he believes half the country doesn't like him. So I guess nobody can measure up to Lichtman's standard of charisma.
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate,
False Joe Biden, is neither charismatic nor a national hero. Significant foreign scandals in Ukraine and China taint his candidacy. And his lapses in memory and his lack of energy and ability to think clearly is forcing the Democrats to keep Biden away from the public and limit his exposure to challenges form the press. .
So when you take away the fake facts Lichtman inserted into his model, his prediction method clearly shows Trump will win.